Well may I introduce my self: I am a 50 years old man and been trading futures markets something about 10 years now. I do this for living. I have allways NOT been very interested in about roulette because of it's house edge nature and "pure randomness".
But during the years I have been moving my own futures trading strategies more and more into a very short term (intraday) trading which does not care the direction or any explanations/resons but the price action itself and being the most important things the management and execution. My strategies are 100% technical analyses from the pure price action. No traditional trading indicators. I call my current strategy (and it's variations) as a go with the flow strategy (GWTF).
This transition has led me to more and more into a situation where I have to survive in "random kind" of environments. I currently see and understand there is very much common between short term trading in financial markets and the roulette. My interest for the roulette got a big step ahead some times ago when I understood there really has no "slippage" in roulette and the commissions (house edge 2,8% or 10% method in RNG) are in fact quite low compared to the financial market scalping.
I understand some of the problems what the succesfull roulette player will face which does not exists (or not at the same level) in trading on financial markets.
I am also a very experienced programmer (over 30 years of experience) from very low level stuff like embedded register level applications (microcontrollers, microprosessors, assembly language etc.) where you R&D your own bios and operating systems up to the database systems in large scale. Lot of projects done during my active years in that field.
I set up this thread to bring up things which "normal" short term trader from financial markets may face while trying to trade roulette by the rules and analysis done on the other side. Thread where we can discuss things without developing any specific system or strategy. We can do this on the more appropriate areas on this site.
First of all I have to say that I see the main difference between these areas are
a) price has a memory
b) price moves because of the people
There is lot of talk in the net about the trading it is a random walk and cannot be traded by the technical analysis. I am not going to go into that debate I just say I am a living example YOU CAN do not listen the bs what the professors and other important people are trying to tell you. The case is just they did not succeed and this is why they try to prove the cause of something else (randomness) than they self
Now they say I am succesfull because I have a skill. This is very true. You need a lot of exercise (years) and self control to become something. It is the very same in any profession. Trading is not an exception in this. And every experienced trader knows the end game is you in the mirror. Period.
Trading is a mental war 80% (which has the main influence for your execution) then comes money and position management and after these important things far behind comes those Setups.
After all I went a little a bit for the way of that debate and did a small comparison between the outcomes from the roulette table and EUR/USD (EuroFx futures at CME) currency pair.
They say the real randomness must produce a solid noise. Here is an example what I did from the 1 million spins data found in this site. I did a small C# app which converted those spins into a bitmap (idean took from random.org, thanks Irish guys, Go McGregor Go !). Every white dot tells us how well we hit odd numbers:
So if the random data must look like this fine noise then the Euro's Noise must look the same right ?
Well here is the Euro where white dot tells you when the price went up and black if it went down:
(btw. I hope these picutres can be seen in their original sizes without any zoom in or out)
As you can clearly see we are no more talking about randomness in this picture (at the level as the previous example). There is a clear difference between these pictures. I say: memory and people came into the game.
So why I am telling this for you is that I see we cannot copy technical analysis 1:1 from the financial markets when we are going to sit at roulette table. The supply/demand does not work here. Trendlines or horizontal support/resistance should be worthless. No buying or selling pressure. You cannot read the roulette "market" by that way. This is my first impressions in this field BUT MY MIND IS STILL OPEN AND THINGS CAN CHANGE.
The question is can the technical analysis and trading mentality from financial markets work at least in some level here at the roulette table. This is the goal in my journey here.
I am just at the beginning on my career in roulette tables (hobby) so please for give me my mistakes and some level ignorance but I will improve. It is a sure thing !