### Author Topic: How much can we win?  (Read 1425 times)

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#### Jesper

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##### How much can we win?
« on: December 23, 2016, 10:51:02 AM »
Statistical the game is in the long run a loss.  We have variance, and if it will be enough trials a few can win very much.
At the same time some think 2.7% disadvantages is not very much.

Let see, if all 7 billion living here use one dollars each and say they bet on an EC.  every time  0.973% /2 will double the win. Say the losers go home and the winners parlay.

When we reach the level  there about 140000 have won 33000 dollars each, the bank has got 232423000 in profit.

If we continue to the point we have a very rich solo winner, the bank keep still more.

7000 000 000 spins takes some time, but the game market will reach it rather fast, it is just a spin each.

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#### kav

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2016, 12:08:41 PM »
This is a very interesting analysis and very true.
But what if every player had more than a chip as bankroll? And what if one were free to play as he likes and leave when he likes and not necessarily parlay till broke?

Derren Brown has done an experiment in horse racing and betting, based on your assumptions.

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#### Real

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2016, 07:01:56 PM »
Quote
Statistical the game is in the long run a loss.  We have variance, and if it will be enough trials a few can win very much.
At the same time some think 2.7% disadvantages is not very much.

Variance = Luck, good/bad.  Overtime, luck runs out and that 2.7% house edge becomes and enormous value that consumes your good luck.

#### Birima

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2016, 09:09:01 PM »
People who believe 2.7% is the only problem don't usually take the following into account:

"The house edge should not be confused with the hold. The hold is the average percentage of the money originally brought to the table that the player loses before he leaves—the actual “win” amount for the casino. The Casino Control Commission in Atlantic City releases a monthly report showing the win/hold amounts for each casino. The average win/hold for double zero wheels is between 21-30%, significantly more than the 5.26% house edge."

Maybe there's a correlation between that 21-30% and variance.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 09:11:37 PM by Birima »

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#### Jesper

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2016, 06:06:17 AM »
The hold is much higher than the house advantages, just simply because every spin has a house advantages, and the buy in can be bet several times. If we can not see  it make a experiment, buy in 100 and play, it will be much more than 100 in turn over before all is lost. If we flat bet one at the time it will last between 100 spins and infinity, but in most cases it will last maybe  a few times 100 spins.

The AM wheel with a payout of 18/38 is very hard to beat, an wheel with 18/37 twice as food and a NOZ the best. The disadvantages looks small but are not. Statistical we can win anyhow, but less likely.  A lotto win of a lot of money happens despite a disadvantage of about 50%.

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#### Koko

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2017, 05:45:00 AM »
At the end of the day always the casino is the winner. The the game give us hope to win.
And as a famous gambler said once: "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned" The Color of Money (1986)

#### Trilobite

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2017, 07:34:34 AM »

If you can guarantee a 5% profit on turnover (POT) then you are destined to be successful.

Why 5%?

Because that's the best I've seen proof of as a system player, and that will do nicely, thank you.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 07:38:31 AM by Trilobite »

#### Bayes

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2017, 11:57:48 AM »
More is always better of course, but if the bet is consistent, then even 1% ROI is good enough.

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#### Jesper

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2017, 01:07:45 PM »
We can win good sometimes,but stay a head for long time and have no losses is just not possible. We can use methods which near never lose, the net is small  then.

#### Reyth

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##### Re: How much can we win?
« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2017, 09:13:37 PM »
We can win good sometimes,but stay a head for long time and have no losses is just not possible. We can use methods which near never lose, the net is small  then.
Let me guess, the risk amount is too large to recoup before the second loss hits, right? >.<