Author Topic: Talos_Dump  (Read 25594 times)

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #600 on: April 16, 2017, 10:45:07 PM »
Juice you are absolutely on point, but you have to consider the whole picture. Take for example the last morning I had. I played for 2 hours, for a total of 91 spins. I completed 67 games, for a total won of 83 units (a little above average) with a maximum exposure of 45 units. In 5$ chips is 415$ in 2 hours risking 225$ at the worst moment.
  I was home for lunch, called it a day.

drTalos,

can you give the full statistics of that game session ?
thanks,

Jérôme
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #601 on: April 17, 2017, 11:28:40 AM »
Hi Jerome,

Here's the first section.  You are correct for the first four bets.

no bet reference
18

Section 1  -35

-1    23 (18 numbers) Loss

-2    4  (18 numbers) Loss

-8    24  (24 numbers) Loss

-24    28  (24 numbers) Loss

-35

I'm very confident this first section is correct. The play for zero is open to interpretation.

RouletteMan

Hi RM,

back from one week of vacation and just found some time to come back in this topic, it was turning around in my head last night ;-)
The first section is not ok in my understanding, he's not betting 8 and 24 units at third and fourth spins to finish the game, MrTalos can confirm if he wants but i'm 100% sure of that. If you think about it, there's no sens to put as much as 35 units after the 4th spin, he always said the balance should stay low, and -93 units at the tenth spin.

Jérôme
« Last Edit: April 17, 2017, 11:34:59 AM by jerome26b »
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #602 on: April 21, 2017, 05:26:59 PM »
everybody gave up on the DrTalos HG ? i'm surprised after so many posts this thread is so quiet now. Probably the Talos session and the stats DRTalos gave out even more uncertainty.

And the weakness of the wheel ? nobody tried the path of the specific layout of the american wheel ? I read some topics about possible HG by people exploiting the layout of the american wheel , playing columns for example.
The fact MrTalos reported his sessions wins put some things in evidence. i compared with my statistics in a number of spins. the report of his wins at 3rd and 4th spins can't be direct wins everytime cause the hits are too low. so i was going to the conclusions his third and fourth bet are mixed bet like a column and 3 ds (total 24numbers) or a column and 6 streets. that way some hits will close the game but some will not. And i have the feeling when he said he needs just one hit in the x next spins to close the game it's not any hit it could be a hit specific otherwise the game is not over.
after all my analysis i'm really confident now MrTalos is paying some 'complex bet' and not playing just same chances. he's playing some different chances at the same time, that say his hits are not just dépendant of a single event that can miss for a long time.

jerome.
 
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Rinad

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #603 on: April 21, 2017, 06:12:24 PM »


  Jerome, Talos could be playing 2 oposite events at the same time in order to keep all bets low.
as well as a positive progression and a negative progression combine on the same 2 dozens. it really is like he said"out of the boxe".
the thinking of his method is about the way to achieve a win very quickly. and when it fails you sit there until the maths do their work. by that time playing flat on 2 dozens will be good enough that the wins will out do losses.
just a thought.
it is not as complex as we may think because it is "very boring". he just look at his balance and he knows what to do.
best,
Rinad
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #604 on: April 21, 2017, 06:48:10 PM »
one of my concern is the stats he gave for his third and fourth bet. we know for sure he's playing 24 numbers at his third bet and fourth (if no hit yet). And the stats of his hits at the 3rd bet are not statistically relevant so it means for me at third bet he's playing not linear bet but a combination and some hits will end the game some others not.

jerome.
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #605 on: April 21, 2017, 09:32:45 PM »
Well, not all days are the same.
  I play airball machines, and on average they do 50 spins an hour.

Last week I had a different day, here the stats.

253 spins
96 units won
68 games of which
35 ended at first spin
16 at the second
1 at the third
4 at fourth

5 games over fifth, and three long games, who lasted

46 spins and maximum exposition at 121 for a winning of 11 units
45 spins and maximum exposition at 171 for a winning of 11 units
40 spins and maximum exposition at 103 for a winning of 9 units

wasn't the worst I had, but was very unusual to have three long sessions in the same day
total number of games not equal the total he's saying. i've the feeling sometime Mrtalos is a kind of DrJekyll and MrHyde. giving some very accurate informations but not paying attention about some things he's posting. Very strange for the character cause he was always so precise in some way and so 'draft' sometimes. For a professional player like he was supposed to be 'no eyebrown' etc i suspect after few time on this forum he's starting to mix all the things. So mrtalos at the end why did you not took my offer seriously ? oh yes i know it's because you have nothing. you played a good game i'm in admiration about your comedy you deserve a very good price for that.
And in any way i know my post will make you react as always when somebody is saying something controversial. I saw you connected many times but never reacted on your post so what are you expecting here ? just people admire your HG ? i'm sure you don't have such thing cause there's no HG in roulette. there's some good system to make money with some bet selection (could be random it's my way) and a strategy or bias but nothing else.

my regards mrJekyll

jerome
 

Rinad

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #606 on: April 22, 2017, 03:58:13 AM »


   there is something to be said about that Talos HG.

  it is obvious that you dont want anyone to "get the method", but as you have stated before , giving hope to players to work hard on it. but then if you knew we were close to it, about to "open the code", would it make sens that you may give us infos that would put us further away from it, so that as you mentioned in the past, the game of roulette would not close its tables???.   either you want to help or you dont. telling all these brave souls that have put so much hard work into working the puzzle, and at the same time, not really wanting to share your HG because this could be the end of the game is somewhat contrary.
just to keep everything in perspective here; WE ARE TALKING OF A GAME OF ROULETTE, NOT THE CURE FOR CANCER.
it has been a interesting post. but players should know that they can win without a HG.
pros play sessions. all do. they win more then they lose. that is good enough. at the end if you show more winnings then losses you are doing good.
and a better approch to any HG, is to be a nice person, of a kindred spirit. not make others envious because you have something they dont.
some players may not be able to paid their light bills on this forum, for that reason I would never mention that I make a half million a year playing roulette. not my style.
it is all about helping one another in a way that does not make someone feel inferior because they dont have the "smart" that others have.
God bless,
Rinad
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #607 on: April 22, 2017, 02:55:35 PM »
The word HG doesn't mean sense for me, HG is a system that will never lose even in 10 billions spins. so even if the talos system didn't failed yet at let's say 200k spins it will fail once. Is it a very strong system? Yes. is it an HG in its definition? NO cause no system will never be. I'm even wondering what will do MrTalos the first time his system will lose cause he said he can't accept a stop loss or a system that can fail once. So we are going back to good/great system but never an HG. The only one is with unlimited table limit and unlimited bankroll playing a simple martingale....
Back to his system i've read some of your posts Rinad very interesting on other topics and i have really the feeling he's using something like in the 'red 1' or your 'street system'. It's completely clear form the statistics he gave at spin 3 and 4 that all hits are not equals. A hit at first 2 spins close the game then he's starting to play a mix bet that enclose 24 numbers in total (could be a column and 3 ds just an example). So some hits will close the game at this stage some not but will reduce the amount to recover. That's the first stage grinding as much as possible in the first fourth bets. When no hitting he's continuing playing 24 numbers to get this hit. Then he's betting change radically and he can play a completely different betting system to recover. We know he doesn't like to rely on luck and on a single event to win. Apparently he's never playing less than 6 numbers in total. But we know he can win from 0 to 17 units. It's clear that there's a relation of his winning/game duration. When the game is longer he's finishing +9/+11/+16/+17. So it means he can play a moment a mix bet including streets, splits etc ...
He's never playing SU but he can cover his main target number with betting around it so playing streets and splits but only the center number hit will close the game.

jerome.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2017, 08:35:44 PM by jerome26b »
 
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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #608 on: May 09, 2017, 01:03:28 AM »

Can the progression Talos uses be like this:

Numbers played:      units played:      debt/profit:        hit ratio/total numbers played:

24       2        -2                                 
24       6        -8
24       12     -20   0/72
24       18     -38
24       24     -62
24       30     -47   1/144

2 hits within 40 numbers or 3 hits within 100 numbers for profit:

6        6
6        7
6        8
6        9
6        10
6        11      -98   
6        12      -38    2/186

Hit decreases a great amount of our debt and gives us more spins to achieve the 1/60 ratio

still 2 hits are needed within the next 60 numbers played for profit.

6        4       
6        5
6        6
6        7
6        8
6        9
6        10      -87
6        11      -32    3/234

6        7       +4     4/240  1/60

If the sequence was more difficult:

24       2
24       6
24       12   
24       18     -38
24       24     -62
24       30     -47  1/144

6        6
6        7
6        8
6        9
6        10
6        11     
6        12      -110    1/186

9        12
9        15      -130
9        18      -86     2/213

2 hits within 27 numbers or 3 hits within 87 numbers for profit:
Less numbers each spin because of greater debt.

3      5
3      5
3      5
3      6
3      6       
3      6       
3      7
3      7
3      7        -140     2/240
3      8
3      8
3      8
3      9        -173
3      9         -74     3/255 
3      5         
3      5
3      5
3      6         -95
3      6         -29     4/270   1/67.5

only 29 units exposure, play more numbers each spin to speed up the process.
   
6      6       
6      7         +1      5/282   1/56,4

I know he do not begin with 24 numbers at the first spin, the first section it is just used as an example because i cant quite figure how he can only have -93 units exposure after 10 consecutive losses at the first 10 spins without betting a street/split within the 24 number like this:

                                                                                 Betting pattern:
        18             1         +1                                        H/L
          18             2         +1                           H/L   
         24             8/11      +1               60                       2 DZ 4+4             
         24             9/20      -7/+4            84                        (2DZ 4+4) +(1St)
         24             10/30     -15              108                      2 DZ 5+5     
         24             11/41                      132                      (2DZ 5+5) + (1St)
         24             12/53                      156                        2 DZ 6+6
         24             13/66                      180                      (2DZ 6+6) + (1St)
         24             13/79                      204                      (2DZ 6+6) + (1Split)
         24             14/93                       0/228 -93 units    (2DZ 7+7)

Any hit only on Dozens would only remove a tiny bit of the debt and it looks unmanageable and difficult to calculate.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 06:00:58 PM by Frequency »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #609 on: May 09, 2017, 06:07:36 AM »
In my experience, the first 10 bets (after the first 3) are to "soak up the loss streaks" and get a "token win" so we can take a shot at the debt in the way that the ratio requires. 

A "token hit" early in this 10 bets can be recovered immediately, the farther down we go in the bets the more work required to achieve the ratio & profit.  10 losses in a row is very rarely seen but still quite manageable.

The key is that the first hit is designed to demonstrate that the loss streak has ended and so the goal is to make that bet as relevant as possible for the very least cost possible and then start actually addressing the debt more substantially.

My problem has been that eventually I am forced to lower my selection below 6 numbers in order to continue to bet reasonably.  I haven't been able to figure out how to keep it at 6 numbers in the worst times...
« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 06:10:50 AM by Reyth »
 
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Dandy

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #610 on: May 09, 2017, 03:55:00 PM »
Hi guys, I joined forum because of this topic, it is very interesting indeed, I love reading this kind of stuff about roulette. I have many years of losing experience on roulette table :)  like average gambler, but not play it  so much for last 3 years, I am into sports betting and holdem.
I didn't read all 40 pages because with every next reply you make strategy more complex and it's not supposed to be. There is actually well know HG, and it is the simplest strategy ever.
Unlimited progression-unlimited bankroll and table with no limits, all that=impossible circumstances. In reality it is impossible but mathematically it is real thing, it's only 100% winning HG strategy for betting anything, not just roulette wheel.

So there is some sure things about system Talos is playing.
1.Strategy must be simple. Talos play it in crowded live casinos, you have distraction on every single step there, you don't have tracking softwares, unlimited time, calculators, spreadsheats, tables and etc.
2.Strategy must be recovery progression with probably few levels of progression.
3.Progression must be very conservative because of circumstances in reality.

CANON 55

  As I always stated, the progression is the real HG. And yes, is quite hard to get. It took me two decades, and I crashed in it I should say casually. I was frustrated by the fact that every progression goes higher and higher till they get unplayable, unsustainable.


Last sentence is the key. I will write some thing about sport betting maybe you can implement it.
For example in sport betting from many researchings I read, many pro bettors calculated most sustaniable progression, and it around 25%-30% kelly, very conservative and powerful strategy.
Bookmaker's edge are higher than roulette house edge of 2.7% for single zero, expect few bookies like pinnacle sports where house edge is sometimes even 1% on mega popular events , but on average is 2-3%.
They have perfect analityical,statisticaly, and stake tracking  softwares which are worth millions of dollars to calculate perfect odds form all available informations they have.
Difference between bookies and casinos, is number of possible events to be played for bettor/gambler, and the randomness of event, roulette is probably fully random game and you can't predict next outcome, in sports it is little different.
E.G. if one spin is 60 second, for 10 hours you have 600 events to be played with house edge of 2.7%, for 5 days/10 hours play, you have 3000 events to be played.
In sport betting for example, you can bet around 3000 sport events for 300 days, and average bettor with good staking method and bankroll management can sustain minimal profit. E.G. he need to bet around 10 sport events per day, every single day and it's very hard job to be done, and remember house edge is almost same as roulette house edge. With good staking method like kelly criteron, bettors are maximazing their profit and minimazing they lose, so if you can implement GOOD staking and RECOVERY progression method (24 numbers E.G.) maybe game of roulette is beatable with minimized risk, so maybe Talos is legit winner who is telling us a truth.
But from other hand you can't change nature of simple math, "reality impossible" HG tell us next:
After 14 progression bet on even chances... 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024-2048-4096-8192
You have more than 99.99% chances to win 1unit with house edge of 2.7%. Talos or anyone else on planet can't beat simple mathematics, you can just have more conservative or more aggressive approaches, on the end percentage is same. In heaven you will have that percentage even when you play simple Martingale, in reality casino will probably lower you percentage, one way or another. One of my biggest roulette wins was  2200 euros after around 30 spins, I came to casino it was something like 5 black in the row on airball and I started to bet on black. I won next 23 spins betting on black with 100 euros, 24th spin I lost and cashed out, it was finally red. I remember that 5 people was around my seat, and non of us can't believe what actually happened. So, if we assume that was random, please calculate me possibility of that it is something like 2.1e-7 percentages, I don't know how many ppb is that, but it actually happen on airball roulette.

Sorry guys, for long and confusing  1st post, English is my third language, so my grammar and spelling isn't perfect, I see this topic as interesting and if I get some progression strategy on my mind, I will share it.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 04:04:46 PM by Dandy »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #611 on: May 09, 2017, 04:11:20 PM »
Interesting you mention the Martingale, Talos has said his system is a "playable Martingale". :)
 

Dandy

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #612 on: May 09, 2017, 06:25:46 PM »
Interesting you mention the Martingale, Talos has said his system is a "playable Martingale". :)

Actually, Martingale and any kind of progression is perfectly playable strategy from math view, in reality it is different.
Because of that I gave e.g. of almost 30 black in row and my big win. Coincidence ? Yes if I was extremely lucky to see achieving of that micro-small probability, but if we reconsider common sens,  it was definetly rigged for me to win. Machine simply wanted to give me money. BTW my friend worked in that casino, and generally they had problem with that type of airball wheels. Repairers came dozens of time to fix that wheels, because they had so money bugs, and it was produced by some of Eastern European countries, not sure exactly which one. Conclusion is, Casinos have their tactics to make you win anytime, or to make you lose anytime.
Seven-eight years ago I was really interested in roulette system, and I played roulette alot, primarly airball... I had one more experience in one small casino. I played my custom progression method for hours with 1000 euros starting bankroll, I made around 300 euros profit, in one game I rached almost 40%bankroll bet after many conesuctive loss, whole board coverdwith different bets. suddenly it happened something like this:

youtube.com/watch?v=O44yaKCU7Pk

After that, I wasn't so big fun of airball roulette and roulette system tactics. I don't know their cheating methods. You are sure loser even before start, with cheats- impossible probability is NOTHING. If casinos is 100% honest they would really have problem to survive, if everybody play different kinds of progression, especially on airball where spin last less than 60 seconds, and limits are ultra low.
So, story about succesfull HG progression on automatized wheel, casino "rng", softwares, etc... for me that is fairy tail story, soon or later they gonna cut you down... one way or another.

Online live tables is maybe best option, when you know that at least few hundred people play everytime... that's look more legit than real casino, when 100k $ is active bet on wheel with 1000 people in busy hours, maybe casino will not care about your conservative recovery progressions.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 06:28:05 PM by Dandy »
 
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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #613 on: May 09, 2017, 06:47:11 PM »
Dandy, the low limits have nothing to do with it! You can bet 10p min on the airball machines in my town.
So covering 1-6, 7-12, 13-18 costs you 30p. But how many people are going to be happy winning 30p a go. You would need to win 100 games just to cover your petrol money and grab a bite to eat.

And even then.....

30p
60p
1.20
2.40
4.80
9.60
19.20
38.40
76.80
153.60

It only takes 10 losses and you are 300 in the hole. All you guys lately with the rigged airball and roulette wheels etc... A bad tradesman always blames his tools! Or in this case, the Casino's.  :D
 
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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #614 on: May 09, 2017, 07:22:37 PM »
Dandy, the low limits have nothing to do with it! You can bet 10p min on the airball machines in my town.
So covering 1-6, 7-12, 13-18 costs you 30p. But how many people are going to be happy winning 30p a go. You would need to win 100 games just to cover your petrol money and grab a bite to eat.

And even then.....

30p
60p
1.20
2.40
4.80
9.60
19.20
38.40
76.80
153.60

It only takes 10 losses and you are 300 in the hole. All you guys lately with the rigged airball and roulette wheels etc... A bad tradesman always blames his tools! Or in this case, the Casino's.  :D

It is not simple like that, you must look bigger picture. I worked in accounting sector of hotel for short time. Do you know how much expenses have one average hotel with just 30 room, to be opened this morning for the guests ?Can't imagine... hospitality and casino is very risky projects for investing, It is not simple like Mc-donalds. Casinos have much higher expenses even than hotel itself. Bank credits,licences, taxes, utility bills, maintenances... million of dollars just for basics. Monthly expenses for one casino is tremenduos, you can't allow to depend on 2,3% positive edge game, with probability for negative edge outcome on some periods. Believe me, casino can't be 100% honest, people who owns casino isn't 100% honest people too. If we could take one rigged airball machine, play 1 million flat bets for 1 dollar, I will sure that would prove my point that house edge in reality isn't just 2.7%. With all games and amenites revenue, break even point in casino business with that kind of edge would be 250 years  :) 

Edit: I remembered now RNG without zero on some online casinos  ;D ;D ;D  that is purely epic scam.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 07:27:28 PM by Dandy »