Author Topic: Talos_Dump  (Read 41131 times)

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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #420 on: March 10, 2017, 09:09:33 PM »
you can change as well the canon 27 the max winning by game is not 9 anymore but 11 now it seems ... maybe Drtalos changed something in his system since he posted his q&a?!?
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #421 on: March 10, 2017, 09:28:07 PM »
No its that "western mindset" thing. 

We have two poles to our mind, creative & analytical.  They say in chess both poles work simultanously.  It is very frustrating (painful) to have our creativity "stumped" by our analytical.

One book that is super helpful to get unstuck is:

A Kick in the Seat of the Pants

Right now I am stuck because I am "fearful" of trying a new way of betting that could interfere my success; that's painful in fact.

Intense focus on specific numbers sure did help you find his Core Progression though! :D

The more I think about this the more I am convinced that the key to his most secret method (the smallest possible bets) revolves around how he min bets in the Core Progression; the Turtle Bet.

He could just as easily bet the full amount immediately!
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 09:42:14 PM by Reyth »
 
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DrTalos

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #422 on: March 10, 2017, 10:39:28 PM »
Jerome you are right. I changed a little bit the recovery part, to make it more fast to play and a little shorter, that brought me to some games that could finish with a 0 (it is a very unusual combination of hits) and to a maximum profit of 17 (even this one is a very unusual situation).
  Most of the time my profit is from 1 to 11.

One of the things I needed to adjust was to bring with me less money. 1400 units of 10$ are a sum I don't want to go with, and if to this you add the money I will win, you can see that is too much. I tried to cut the maximum exposition to 500 units, because in years I never crossed some limits.

(Can you say that I get a terrible cold today and I am stuck in front of my computer, don't you?)
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #423 on: March 10, 2017, 10:48:58 PM »
Dang Jerome is right again! lol
 
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jekhb76

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #424 on: March 11, 2017, 07:14:18 AM »
when you are feeling better DrTalos, I would like to see a play session, and i think many of us here would like to see one. you don't nees to give us the strategy or the progression / recovery mode but just a quick view of what's goin' on on the table when you play.
 

Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #425 on: March 11, 2017, 08:42:37 AM »
Logic Dump

Talos is betting alot less money than would be considered "normal".  This is an undeniable fact that we get from his numbers in the Canon and in his replies since the Canon was posted, where his number of spins vs. max debt is extremely small.

This is a solid fact and the final reason he has a true HG; his "hidden and most difficult secret", the "revolutionary method" about his system.

Because we know this, we can draw certain logical conclusions.

Talos is betting less and therefore:

A) He is lowering his bet amounts at the current ratio
B) He is lowering the bet selection at the current ratio
C) He is doing a combination of A & B
D) He is lowering his bet amounts at a lower ratio
E) He is lowering his bet selection at a lower ratio
F) He is doing a combination of D & E
G) He is doing some combination of A-E


This is a complicated list which seems hard to figure out.  What I have thought about though is Occam's Razor where he says:

If there are several possible ways that something might have happened, the way that uses the fewest guesses is probably the right one; provided that the simple explanation and complex explanation both work equally well.

Now, because Talos uses a ratio of 1:60, bet selections are equal because every bet selection generates numbers and hits that will correspond with that ratio in its own way.

However, the phrase "the way that uses the fewest guesses is probably the right one" can only apply to two of the logical options which are A & D (which then also applies to G) because if he lowers the bet selection it requires more "guesses" to reach 1:60.

So this means he is either (or both):

A) He is lowering his bet amounts at the current ratio
D) He is lowering his bet amounts at a lower ratio

Since D is only a "more severe" version of A, we can safely proceed with A as the solution and bring in D when we see evidence that A is working but just not well enough.

So the solution is:

Talos is lowering his bet amounts at the current ratio.

Despite this, here is an interesting example that shows the advantage of the Turtle bet using a smaller bet selection:

30 units of debt can be paid for by:

30 units on an EC = 18 numbers bet for 30 units cost

OR

3 bets on a DS for:

6=30
8=36
9=44 = 18 numbers bet for 23 units cost (and with a chance for dynamic profit)

And so for this reason, I am better persuaded to assume the Turtle bet is made at a DS to save on costs.

I believe the pattern follows the Core Progression:

-8 <=== big loss
2+2 <=== turtle bet to gain 2 units
If the turtle bet is lost then bet 3+3 which is another turtle bet
but if it is won then bet another large bet and no matter what the outcome of the large  bet, a turtle bet is placed next, unless the ratio is 1.

After every loss a turtle bet is placed
After a turtle bet win, a normal bet is placed
After every normal bet a turtle bet is placed

This should substantially reduce costs with no downside in play because numbers are numbers regardless of where they come from!



UPDATE: Well, I tried this and it racks up artificial debt that is not eclipsed properly even when the smaller selection hits.  Therefore, I guess Occam's Razor was right... O_o

Here is a sample of Occam's TurtleTM:

 1 : 156 / 2  41 <=== turtle bet won
10-DZ+DZ loss  52  1 : 180 / 3  40 <=== large bet lost, next bet will be turtle

Split: 1 ( 6 ) 1 ( 5 ) 1 ( 4 ) 2 ( 3 ) 2 ( 2 ) 4 ( 1 )
Street: 1 ( 6 ) 2 ( 5 ) 2 ( 4 ) 2 ( 3 ) 3 ( 2 ) 5 ( 1 )
Quad: 2 ( 6 ) 2 ( 5 ) 2 ( 4 ) 3 ( 3 ) 4 ( 2 ) 7 ( 1 )
DS: 2 ( 6 ) 3 ( 5 ) 3 ( 4 ) 4 ( 3 ) 6 ( 2 ) 11 ( 1 )
DS+Split: 3 / 1 ( 6 ) 3 / 1 ( 5 ) 4 / 1 ( 4 ) 5 / 2 ( 3 ) 7 / 2 ( 2 ) 14 / 4 ( 1 )
DS+Street: 3 / 1 ( 6 ) 3 / 2 ( 5 ) 4 / 2 ( 4 ) 5 / 2 ( 3 ) 7 / 3 ( 2 ) 14 / 6 ( 1 )
DS+Quad: 3 / 2 ( 6 ) 3 / 2 ( 5 ) 4 / 3 ( 4 ) 5 / 3 ( 3 ) 7 / 4 ( 2 ) 14 / 8 ( 1 )
DZ: 5 ( 6 ) 6 ( 5 ) 8 ( 4 ) 10 ( 3 ) 14 ( 2 ) 27 ( 1 )
EC: 10 ( 6 ) 12 ( 5 ) 15 ( 4 ) 19 ( 3 ) 28 ( 2 ) 54 ( 1 )
DZ+DZ 10 / 10 ( 6 ) 12 / 12 ( 5 ) 15 / 15 ( 4 ) 19 / 19 ( 3 ) 28 / 28 ( 2 ) 54 / 54 ( 1 )

10-DZ+DZ loss  72  1 : 204 / 3  39  <=== Turtle bet for only 20 units
10-DZ+DZ WIN  59  2 : 228 / 2  40 <=== Turtle bet won, next bet will be large
10-DZ+DZ WIN  41  3 : 252 / 2  40 <=== Large bet won, next bet will be turtle
10-DZ+DZ WIN  33  4 : 276 / 1  41  <=== Turtle bet won, next bet will be large
9-EC loss  67  4 : 294 / 1  39  <=== Large bet lost but ratio is 1 so continue large
8-DZ WIN -1 <=== Large bet won

Granted, the first turtle bet here was 1 unit more expensive than the EC bet called for under the current ratio but the advantage was with the higher bet selection and so I think it was more than worth it.

Another hidden effect is after the large won DZ+DZ bet, profits are locked in by immediately betting the turtle minimum (ratio 6).

While playing this, I felt as though I had "discovered something" and so I think this is part of the Talos technique and/or will be effective at keeping the costs lower.

Minimizing Exposure to Negative Variance

Normal Betting: [@ratio] [@ratio] [@ratio] <=== all 3 bets are at similarly sized amounts

Turtle Betting: [@<ratio] splits into 2 possible scenarios:
 Scenario A: [@<ratio] bet misses = repeat from the beginning
 Scenario B: [@<ratio] bet hits = [@ratio] [@<ratio] unless one other scenario:
  Secenario 1: ratio =1, then [@ratio]

So in other words we have the following:

[@<ratio] [@<ratio] ... until a win is received
[@ratio] [@<ratio] ... until the ratio is 1
[@ratio] until the ratio is 2 or more & then start over

This method reduces some short term effectiveness in immediate wins but it is implemented not because of favorable statistics (or even just expectation) but instead for negative variance where it will keep the debt to the very lowest possible while still remaining within less than 6 wins of profit at all times.

It has been said that all winning systems must employ some version of this kind of betting in order to accomodate successive loss streaks.



when you are feeling better DrTalos, I would like to see a play session, and i think many of us here would like to see one. you don't nees to give us the strategy or the progression / recovery mode but just a quick view of what's goin' on on the table when you play.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92SIK4O2UD0
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 06:14:27 PM by Reyth »
 

DrTalos

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #426 on: March 11, 2017, 02:22:44 PM »
I cannot show you a game of mine because is like showing you my system. I can give some datas, though, to get you some parameters.

The worst game I had so far reached spin 84, had a maximum exposition of 182 units and a final profit of 16. This is the most long exhausting game and has been due to my recent change in the recovery progression.

the sequence was
18
23
4
24
28
0
15
30
20
30
15
00
25
5
30
35
15
18
32
23

At this point I had played a total of 258 numbers with just 3 hits

15
34
11
35
24
2
13
36
29
21
21
2
24
9
8
24
11
14
1
26
21
8
14
11
9

now the number played are 438, with 3 more hits, the exposition is at 119. At this point I have ten more spins to get a hit to close the game. Unfortunately didn't happen.

8
24
11
14
1
26
21
8
14
11
9
11
1
5
17
10
16
11
22
33
33

More 168 number played, and few more hits. I am now out of 140 units.

16
27
00
34
20
9
36
22
5
32
36
22
5
32
36
6
4
6

Exposition at 162

3
10
23
14
19
35
6
13
35
00
9
29
17
25
21
21

the repetition of 21 closes the game for me.
I played 724 numbers to hit 11 numbers. I was at the third step of my recovery, and I have four levels of it (I never reached the fourth so far).
In the third level, in the moment I hit, I had like 20 more spins to get one hit, so I was pretty comfortable that my game was near to the end.

There are tons of informations here, for good ears...
 
 
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jekhb76

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #427 on: March 11, 2017, 02:41:51 PM »
Thank you for giving us some more insight.
 
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juice

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #428 on: March 11, 2017, 02:45:10 PM »
I guess Eddy knows how to ask the correct way!  DREAM ON...... LOL
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #429 on: March 11, 2017, 03:12:01 PM »
when i see your sequence i see a clear pattern it's lot of repeaters so i can believe you use some pattern of bet against a repeat in some way and the recovery was long in this sequence because of that ... on the other hand you close the game with a repeater so can't be so sure  :D  and i'm right to say that at the end of this very long sequence you were only playing 3 numbers ? or more accurate one street ? it's the first time you talk about a 4 step recovery it remind me some star/carsh system that maybe you took as basis and improved in your own way. anyway thanks for all this valuable information mrtalos.

jerome
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 03:32:29 PM by jerome26b »
 
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juice

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #430 on: March 11, 2017, 03:42:09 PM »
REYTH, There are many, many, many, areas of his sequences that he could have employed the stratagy that I layed out in Pales, post. It would have closed the game, lickity split! It is obvious he is not playing every spin, and he needs a repeat condition to close the deal. Jerome and you, can really roll up your sleeves now, and solve this. I see many solutions for the end game, but I am enjoying the living crap out of watching this carnival!
LONG LIVE THE TALOS MYSTERY!!!!!!!!!!
ALL HAIL THE DR.
GREAT JOB EDDY, FOR THE MAGIC TOUCH!
IF NOBODY BELIEVES DR. TALOS IS REAL AND WANTS THE BEST FOR ALL, YOU ARE MISTAKEN, HE HAS GIVEN PLENTY OF INFORMATION NOW AND WANTS YOU TO SUCCEED.
LIKE MULTI VARIABLE CALCULUS, THERE ARE ALWAYS SEVERAL WAYS TO FIND THE SAME SOLUTION !!!
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 03:49:28 PM by juice »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #431 on: March 11, 2017, 03:45:27 PM »
SESSION CANON

1)23
2)4
3)24
4)28
5)0
6)15
7)30
8)20
9)30
10)15
11)00
12)25
13)5
14)30
15)35
16)15
17)18
18)32
19)23
20)15
21)34
22)11
23)35
24)24
25)2
26)13
27)36
28)29
29)21
30)21
31)2
32)24
33)9
34)8
35)24
36)11
37)14
38)1
39)26
40)21
41)8
42)14
43)11
44)9

45)11
46)1
47)5
48)17
49)10
50)16
51)11
52)22
53)33
54)33

55)16
56)27
57)00
58)34
59)20
60)9
61)36
62)22
63)5
64)32
65)36

66)6
67)4
68)6

69)3
70)10
71)23
72)14
73)19
74)35
75)6
76)13
77)35
78)00
79)9
80)29
81)17
82)25
83)21
84)21
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 07:15:05 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #432 on: March 11, 2017, 04:14:48 PM »
Maybe not betting all spins...hmmm.
 

jekhb76

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #433 on: March 11, 2017, 04:23:36 PM »
well i just ask a simple question.
i will respect the fact that he would not give us his system, that is his own right. if i wish he would? ofcourse. do i believe he is real and telling the truth? yes i do. do we solve the mystery? maybe, maybe not. i see it as a good book, we cannot wait to find the awnser at the end, but we are only on page 2. but it is a great story and i enjoy every minute of this post.
 
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DrTalos

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #434 on: March 11, 2017, 05:12:39 PM »
Sorry guys, I didn't meant to do that. Probably sneezes and copy and paste don't work well together.
As you can see there is a section pasted twice.

In the Reyth counting, from number 30) to 40) are not valid, are just a repetition of the previous section, and number from 62) to 65) I have no idea where they came from, and the total should be 84 number played (the first number listed is not played, is where my counting starts).

I really apologize for the confusion.

MOD EDIT: Updating the record now.  No evidence left of any error.  Thanks!

« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 05:24:44 PM by Reyth »
 
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