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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #30 on: December 25, 2016, 07:32:07 PM »
What he said was that the first 10 spins are easy and require no mental work, not the entire system.  This must be because it is a rote progression up to that point and its very likely to get a hit so there will never be any thinking involved.

Here is a problem:

Quote
CANON 31:

At spin number 20 I have already played almost 200 numbers (usually, with some hits meanwhile).

Quote
CANON 32:

At spin number 10 I already played 228 numbers (with no hits whatsoever), for an outstanding balance of 93 pieces.

Obviously these both can't be true.

Also, to finish quickly, we need to always make sure that we will reach 1:60 within 5 wins.  We MUST reduce the numbers bet after a win to "give us more time to achieve our 1:60 in 260 spins".  The very key to this system is NOT having a static bet selection because it is constantly tending to grow and shrink depending on THE BANK BALANCE.

The idea is to keep surfing until it gives us hits close in a row.  Because we always maintain at least 5 wins to a 60:1 ratio to end the game, we can surf as long as it takes to achieve it.  Like he said, sometimes recovery can be a slow and arduous process but eventually, at the end,  we win at least a unit.

The majority of the time though, we win within the first 5 spins.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2016, 07:48:04 PM by Reyth »
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #31 on: December 25, 2016, 09:34:19 PM »
You're right I always had a problem with these canon 31 and 32. It should means if both are true that he restrict drastically the numbers played after hitting. If I'm focusing on canon 31 to be right by experience it's common to have a hit at spin 5-6, in 2000 real spins I never saw more than 8 I think. So at spin 5 108 numbers are already played and we got a hit. It left around 92 numbers to play in 15 spins so something like playing a double street or 6 numbers 15 times maybe ?

Jerome.

 

Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #32 on: December 25, 2016, 10:01:22 PM »
When I finally get "un lazy" I will make the softwares calculate the bets needed for 1 win (current), 2 wins (current + reduced), 3 wins (current + reduced twice), 4 wins (current + reduced 3 times) & 5 wins (current + reduced 4 times) where reduction after a win is essential and increasing after a loss is close to required.
 
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DrTalos

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #33 on: December 27, 2016, 02:27:31 AM »
I am impressed. I am clapping my hands for your efforts, and the conclusion you reached so far. I will not say if you are far or close, but I will correct some assumption that I think can help you go through it (I keep my idea that you will never reach the exact one, so my system is not in danger, and probably you will end with one of your own).
  Canon 31 and 3e are both true, sorry for that. (I love that definition).
  When I used the word number is exactly what it is, but your implication can be wrong. Let's assume that I relate each number with a sequence of numbers, like the closer in the wheel, or a series of streets in the table, so for my using a number as a reference point can be bring to the table a whole bunch of numbers instead of a single one, am I right?
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #34 on: December 27, 2016, 08:51:26 AM »
I am impressed. I am clapping my hands for your efforts, and the conclusion you reached so far. I will not say if you are far or close, but I will correct some assumption that I think can help you go through it (I keep my idea that you will never reach the exact one, so my system is not in danger, and probably you will end with one of your own).
  Canon 31 and 3e are both true, sorry for that. (I love that definition).
  When I used the word number is exactly what it is, but your implication can be wrong. Let's assume that I relate each number with a sequence of numbers, like the closer in the wheel, or a series of streets in the table, so for my using a number as a reference point can be bring to the table a whole bunch of numbers instead of a single one, am I right?

Yes sure MrTalos,

i always understood it in that sense (a number as a reference point or a pivot i mean), thanks for clarifying the canon 31 & 32 anyway. But not more material to work with now.
In fact the dump of Reyth i got already everything in my head for a while cause i did a compilation and took notes of the importing posts of all that you wrote about your system so nothing really new for me just the fact somebody else now is working on it which can bring new ideas.

There's still a lot of work to do but i was doing some mindstorming yesterday about original ideas for progression and there's one i will try to simulate today.
The key is to keep the outstanding balance as low as possible waiting for the first hit in my opinion.
You said you build your progression from scratch so you think  you are the only one in the world to use this progression i suppose ?

have a good day !

Jérôme
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 09:57:58 AM by jerome26b »
 
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DrTalos

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #35 on: December 27, 2016, 02:22:46 PM »
Well, I have no idea if I am the only one or not. I think there are several ways and approach to beat the wheel, some of them more efficiently than others.
  A guy once told me that if you spend a year playing and the balance at the end is 0, you can consider yourself a winner because you had one year of fun for free!
  Is not my opinion though. I started this adventure to get a profit, to gain a living, and a winning method that allows losing streaks or loss stop point wasn't good for me. I wanted to be a consistent winner, I wanted to relay on an additional income, and I found what in the end has become my only income.
  I am sorry I will not give more clues of it. You all get the idea and I guess you have the tools to find your way to it. I will point out once again the most important question of them all, and is the most important because if you solve this dilemma you will have the key to the system: How can I keep the balance low so to wait till the numbers come in my favor?
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #36 on: December 27, 2016, 04:45:59 PM »
Well, I have no idea if I am the only one or not. I think there are several ways and approach to beat the wheel, some of them more efficiently than others.
  A guy once told me that if you spend a year playing and the balance at the end is 0, you can consider yourself a winner because you had one year of fun for free!
  Is not my opinion though. I started this adventure to get a profit, to gain a living, and a winning method that allows losing streaks or loss stop point wasn't good for me. I wanted to be a consistent winner, I wanted to relay on an additional income, and I found what in the end has become my only income.
  I am sorry I will not give more clues of it. You all get the idea and I guess you have the tools to find your way to it. I will point out once again the most important question of them all, and is the most important because if you solve this dilemma you will have the key to the system: How can I keep the balance low so to wait till the numbers come in my favor?

It seems mathematicaly this dilemma is impossible to solve but apparently your progression is beyond mathematic logic, well well well... but at the end you said your system is simple maths.
Let's resume some points, we can keep the balance low by 3 ways :

- lowering the beting numbers.
- lowering the bets.
- not betting at all, this way we enter the virtual bets and it's gamblers fallacy we all know about that.

now let's analyze the first 2 points and their pros and cons :

- if we lower the numbers we bet we have less chance to hit so it will increase the variance between hits.
- if we lower the bets it will take more time to recover and maybe we will not achieve the 1/60 ratio we need.

now about the combination of both :

- if we lower the numbers we bet after first hit but let the same amount of bet we are waiting for the magical selection to hit but we enter in pure luck system.
- if we lower the numbers we bet after first hit but reduce the bet we are going to infinite and uncoverable balance.

i did many simulations of all these combinations and they all fail at a moment; so i suppose you use something else.

if the solution is not mathematical what the hell it can be ?

there's another topic on the forum about parachute system, maybe it's the solution to the trick...

Jérôme 
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 04:48:12 PM by jerome26b »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #37 on: December 27, 2016, 05:06:26 PM »
A key way that his system lowers the cost is by increasing the chances of getting a hit.  I think the key concept is that raising the total size of the bet selection produces better results than simply raising on a static bet selection.

A second way is to understand how wide our window can be and let the wheel play out to that width before raising the bets.

Since we are talking about "hitting in our favor" which in recovery means a cluster of hits in a row, then another way to keep the costs down is to decrease the size & total of the bet selection after a hit.

I think its important to realize that "less numbers" does not mean "failure to succeed" BECAUSE the one thing that is static in this system is THE ACTUAL NUMBERS BET and so the longer we stay on those numbers, the greater the chance of them hitting for us.  Every hit gives us a MASSIVE advantage and especially when the bet selection has been lowered; i.e. the lower the bet selection, the greater the advantage when we hit.

These are the core principles of his system and I think we cannot stray from them in our approach.  I think the key to this approach is the ratios (1:60 will yield a profit) & ranges (must obtain a profit in 5 wins) in both increasing and decreasing the selection.

Man its tough to figure out a formula to do this.  I think the first thing I need to do is just calculate the ratio of how many hits TO how many numbers played and just learn to track that.  Obviously if we are under 60 numbers played, we must obtain a profit from each bet.  Things start to get interesting after 60 numbers played...

Hmmm, I think I have figured something out.  If our ratio is less than 2:120 then we divide the debt by 2 (2 wins), less than 3:180 divide by 3 (3 wins), less than 4:240 divide by 4 (4 wins) & divide everything else by 5 (5 wins).  This kind of seems like a "divisor point" approach to our bet sizing. 

The divisor point approach agrees perfectly with CANON 1 & CANON 33:

Quote
I encourage you to go back in matemathics and forget "hot" and "cold" numbers, or sectors,
and handle just the money you got as a bankroll. That is the key.

Quote
I have been asked how many number without hitting I can sustain, and I showed that. In the vast majority of games I hit something, and this will change completely the total sum of number played, as my outstanding balance at that moment.

« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 06:17:20 PM by Reyth »
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #38 on: December 27, 2016, 06:32:37 PM »
i think you have to do simulations to see yourself that reducing numbers you bet will not give a solution. let's say to take an example we play until spin 10 and missed so 228 numbers played and we are down -93 units. we have a hit now and play less numbers, it will not means we will have the statistics go to our advantage cause we are not staying in our selection. imagine we are suddenly playing 12 numbers do you really think we will have more hits in this 12 numbers just because we were missing the 228 before ? what about if the hits are in the zone of the 12 we are not playing. it's nonsense ...
and if we miss and play more numbers we have to raise the bets otherwise the game will never finish. it's a real challenge to keep your outstanding balance low on a bad streak situation. i didn't tried the Lanky divisor yet, i was thinking about that since the beginning but i this system is not reducing the numbers we bet so i was not using it to simulate. i encourage you to do some simulations with real spins and you will see how it's difficult to solve the 'dilemma' that drtalos is talking about. i really think now either there's no solution or the solution is completely beyond all logical/mathematical sense. maybe we have to look to chaos theory to solve the trick ?

jerome
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 06:49:50 PM by jerome26b »
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #39 on: December 27, 2016, 06:42:33 PM »
i don't know if there's a canon for that but i remember he said we have to take advantage of the only weakness the wheel has. maybe he means the bankrol and money we involve in the table to take advantage, i already understood it in that sense.
that's funny cause in the introduction of your topic you talked about a murderer that would like to be catched so what's the best way to use ? in my opinion it's to work like a profiler so it's trying to be in the mind of the murderer, it's what i'm trying to do with all drtalos posts trying to be in his head to find his system if there's one. it's not just taking all the posts separate but trying to find an all together evidence. i'm still convinced i can find the solution but the solution will not come mathematically i'm quite sure now. he said his progression is particular and your brain must have a click to find it so it's beyond all usual kind of progression we currently know.

jerome.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 06:58:42 PM by jerome26b »
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #40 on: December 27, 2016, 07:27:25 PM »
i've another thought sudenly i remember he told that even if he will give the first two bets he will not say anything about the system cause the difference is the way he's betting after the first two bets. i'm now convinced by the proof about simulations that the solution is not with a linear progression. i'm now on the way to find a differential progression to solve the trick. the progression is the key but it's not a linear progression on numbers. maybe a differential progression on some part of selection can push the balance on our side statistically in the long term.

jerome.
 

Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #41 on: December 27, 2016, 08:21:11 PM »
We should remember this is counter-intuitive, it won't make sense to us which is why only a few have discovered it; it is unique.

let's say to take an example we play until spin 10 and missed so 228 numbers played and we are down -93 units. we have a hit now and play less numbers, it will not means we will have the statistics go to our advantage cause we are not staying in our selection.

We ARE staying with our selection.  We are keeping X numbers that we have been betting from the beginning.  We should not be discouraged with shrinking our bet selection but embrace it as the unique method that wins.

Quote
imagine we are suddenly playing 12 numbers do you really think we will have more hits in this 12 numbers just because we were missing the 228 before ? what about if the hits are in the zone of the 12 we are not playing. it's nonsense ...

Dr. Talos addresses this with CANON 59:

Quote
  If you select a number, you can select just the one that will not show itself for 300 spins. It is hard but can happen. Will be a lot more unusual that after that the second number you select will go for other 300, and after that the third you play, and the forth, and so on and so forth. Mathematically can happen, but in your lifetime it won't. Some of them you will hit in the first three/four spins.  So, my idea is just rely on that consideration, keeping my outstanding balance low enough to not get crazy, and playing for enough spins to let the variance work a little in my favor. If the table close or broke (happens in the soft air wheels) I play in another table as I was keep playing in the previous one, because nothing really changes (remember, I don't care about numbers).

The green bolded is THE ONLY WEAKNESS THE WHEEL HAS.

Our solution should lie in keeping the 5 win limit at all times & working with derivations of 1:60.  If we use both the range and ratios together it should work.  I believe this is the "unique" progression and especially when you factor in the reductions as well as raises.  As long as we stay within 1400 units, all is well.

So far in my simulations I am running the first 60 numbers, starting with 5 and increasing by 1 until I hit 12.  Then I start calculating the debt and using the divisor -- the divisor is the key to prolonging our progression -- then when you add reductions on a hit we can spin like forever (like the jellyfish), simply waiting for the wheel's weakness to cluster us some wins.  Because we always stay within 5 wins, we will eventually get the cluster that puts us at 1:60 and profit.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 08:41:57 PM by Reyth »
 
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jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #42 on: December 27, 2016, 08:43:11 PM »
i'm glad you took this last reply cause it was the proof he's using a bet selection even if he always said he doesn't care. it's a vast topic to discuss but the only way to avoid a kind of bet selection is to let a robot select the numbers for you, or having a complete fix way to bet until the profit. at a moment i was working on the concept about how the player can be influenced by the last outcome and you are always if you see the ball entering in the spot and you have to bet the next spin. it's a very interresting topic psychologically speaking. so to come back to drtalos grail if we shrink the shrink will not have to be too hard otherwise lets go just to play one number or maybe 4 to expect a profit ? i'm not sure it can work anyway. if we reduce the numbers we play we are more expecting a magical hit than being on statistical considerations.

jerome
 

Reyth

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #43 on: December 27, 2016, 08:47:07 PM »
Dr. Talos says that it isn't magical if it works regardless of the numbers you select. 

Its not the PARTICULAR numbers its ANY set of numbers bet IN THE WAY that exploits THE ONLY WEAKNESS THE WHEEL HAS.

Quote from: CANON 27 -- The Talos FAQ
How you choose numbers to play?
 I use a system to avoid any mistake, and to fasten the game. There is no a better pattern or a best or worst choice, the important is the total numbers played, in the way the system asks for.

That WAY is to have an increasing set of numbers until we get a hit AND a steady set of numbers (static) after we get a hit SO THAT we will always be addressing THE ONLY WEAKNESS THE WHEEL HAS.

The counter-intuitve reason it works is because of the general principle that betting with an increasing number of selections provides better results than simply raising a static selection.

Calculating the proper reduction is hard but I think it would be again based on the ratio:

Quote
Hmmm, I think I have figured something out.  If our ratio is less than 2:120 then we divide the debt by 2 (2 wins), less than 3:180 divide by 3 (3 wins), less than 4:240 divide by 4 (4 wins) & divide everything else by 5 (5 wins).  This kind of seems like a "divisor point" approach to our bet sizing.

I still haven't figured out quite how to do it yet...  I've been thinking, like with the 6 Point Plan, we "return" to the bet selection that corresponds to the ratio; i.e. go back to the bet selection sizing where we were that would be the same thing as the ratio.

For instance if we are 1:128 that is the same as 0:64 (128/2) and so we simply identify what our selection was when we were at 0:64 and use it which will also determine our bet sizing (a window [and thus a divisor] of 2); so our profit should cut the debt in half if we win. 

This recalls CANON 5:

Quote
Allows me to introduce you to a concept important: what you need is a practical solution, not a perfect solution. This way, theoretically unsolvable problem can be solved.

And CANON 34:

Quote
Impossible to recover? I need four hits, and several spin to obtain that, and after every hit I reduce my total bet so gaining more "time" to fill my 1/60 ratio.

We are doing the "jellyfish dance" :D



We have to turn the jellyfish on its side to really get how it works but I can't do that without losing the animation...
« Last Edit: December 27, 2016, 09:51:41 PM by Reyth »
 

jerome26b

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Re: Talos_Dump
« Reply #44 on: December 27, 2016, 08:50:30 PM »
Well, I have no idea if I am the only one or not. I think there are several ways and approach to beat the wheel, some of them more efficiently than others.
  A guy once told me that if you spend a year playing and the balance at the end is 0, you can consider yourself a winner because you had one year of fun for free!
  Is not my opinion though. I started this adventure to get a profit, to gain a living, and a winning method that allows losing streaks or loss stop point wasn't good for me. I wanted to be a consistent winner, I wanted to relay on an additional income, and I found what in the end has become my only income.
  I am sorry I will not give more clues of it. You all get the idea and I guess you have the tools to find your way to it. I will point out once again the most important question of them all, and is the most important because if you solve this dilemma you will have the key to the system: How can I keep the balance low so to wait till the numbers come in my favor?
i think differential betting could be the solution playing a winning progression that we expect to win at the end and another progression that will just keep the balance low enough to gain time and units for the first progression to win.

jerome.