Author Topic: Risk / Reward  (Read 5361 times)

scepticus

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Risk / Reward
« on: November 06, 2016, 04:03:13 PM »
Risk and Reward,

There are many ideas put forward in the forum.
How many consider risk and reward ?
How many factor in "frequencies of  wins " in their calculations  ?
How many sometimes win 100% or more of their table bank in one session ?
How much are you prepared to risk in one evening ?
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 09:53:29 PM by scepticus »


 
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Harryj

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2016, 11:14:44 AM »
These are very important to me, but not it seems to the rest of the forum. Unless the risk and reward are carefully considered how can you hope to show a profit?

         Like Scep I am past the point of considering professional play. For me roulette has always been a game. A way to relax and forget the rat race!  Even so I could not afford to play unless I was a winner. My stop win was about half of the amount I was prepared to lose.  I knew that I could win at least 4 out of 5 sessions. Both these amounts were quite small when compared to my overall income.

        The thought of professional play died arise, but as a family man, the lifestyle did not appeal.

         By the way I finally made it to the UK. Not ,alas to stay. It appears that the Governent prefers Muslims, Hindi's and Eastern Europeans to home grown Brits!

          Harry
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2016, 12:25:42 PM »
Risk versus reward starts to make sense when risk is justified. There are math limits called confidence factor. It show if your bet selection was good due to the chance or something really is going on. It expresses persentage of confidence. 
    Player will have to face a choice... wait till data show him something with high confidence factor or play on limited amount of data.
   It's always gonna be an error, as playing too late - time lost, playing to soon - risk is higher.
  These are referred in stats literature as " type1 & type2" error.  People more conservative about not loosing will tend to commit error of waiting too much, others will play too soon.
     As with every thing,  you mast to pay atention and use reasonable thinking. 
   I'm prepared on average session to loose my entire session bank or to win at least 20 of them. I always target 40 sessions bankrolls.
   Reasons to stop:
 Situation stop to be good.
 Target is achieved and situation stop to be good.
 Got tired.
    Reasons to continue beyond winning goal:
  Situation is too good to be ignored.
 

Reyth

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2016, 01:50:43 PM »
Takes me days to double my bank.  Quite difficult to reliably do it in one session.  I think Kav's 5 Number Paroli system is quite suited to double one's income in a single session and it it probably the least riskiest of methods to do so.  As long as your numbers hit at about expectation for a significant period, you will make large sums of money.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2016, 03:23:19 PM »
Takes me days to double my bank.  Quite difficult to reliably do it in one session.  I think Kav's 5 Number Paroli system is quite suited to double one's income in a single session and it it probably the least riskiest of methods to do so.  As long as your numbers hit at about expectation for a significant period, you will make large sums of money.
lts much more profitable to recognise best conditions for your numbers and correctly estimate your actual edge , then rely on " significant period of the time".
  Conditions are environment things mostly, wheel wich is difficult,  sometimes becomes very favorable. Ability to recognise these favorable conditions permits to correctly structure your betting . What it makes is to give ability to multiply starting bank Ower and over in short periods of the time. It's like catching a ride on the top of the wave... do you see these nice up spikes in any betting chart? Imagine ability to predict when they happen , it will give you an idea.
 
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scepticus

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2016, 06:00:51 PM »
My reason for asking these questions was my feeling that many don’t.
How many talk of progressions which need a table betting bank of Hundreds and some of Thousands ? They focus too much on what they can win with little regard to what they can lose. I don’t think that is sensible gambling. True , gambling is about taking a chance but I think we need to be aware that there are unknown factors in any form of gambling so we should be cautious in our bets and understand the reality that we are really guessing. An “educated guess” is still a guess.“
Frequences  of wins “ ? Consider Dobblesteens 10 step Marty.  How often does your selection lose ,say, 8 or 9 times before a win ? In this case if ten lose often then this is not a viable method
even if it does win 1 unit  often. I should emphasise here that I am not criticising Dobblesteen’s method -just using it as an example because some others advocate  the same basic idea of progression. 

“Double table betting bank in One session ?
I reduced my table betting bank from a 20 times my bet to 10  times and have at least doubled my table betting bank since I changed. Doubling  my 10 bets bank is the same as a 50% of a 20 times bank so the change has been justified. Like dobblesteen I use a strategy which has proved effective

Mr. Perfect.
I am not sure I understood you when you seemed to be saying that you won twice your betting in every session and your target was 4 times it.  Is that what you meant -and you avoided being seen by casino staff  doing this ?
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2016, 07:29:43 PM »
 My sessions are short. 40 banks mean that l enter game with 1 pound and go home with 40 ( just an example).  It simply mean that l double my money between 5 and 6 times during mini sessions.  It looks from perspective of casino as run of luck and me betting more after each win. .. 
 
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scepticus

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2016, 09:11:36 PM »
My sessions are short. 40 banks mean that l enter game with 1 pound and go home with 40 ( just an example).  It simply mean that l double my money between 5 and 6 times during mini sessions.  It looks from perspective of casino as run of luck and me betting more after each win. ..
just as I understood it .
How much do you take to the casino and how much do you bet on each number ?
Do you Flat Bet or progression ?.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2016, 10:09:08 PM »
My sessions are short. 40 banks mean that l enter game with 1 pound and go home with 40 ( just an example).  It simply mean that l double my money between 5 and 6 times during mini sessions.  It looks from perspective of casino as run of luck and me betting more after each win. ..
just as I understood it .
How much do you take to the casino and how much do you bet on each number ?
Do you Flat Bet or progression ?.
My session banks depend on wheel , ball, type of game lm targeting, where exactly l am in process of exploration.  It may be anything between 200 and 800 units.
 I bet percentage of bankroll in relation to expected edge/ confidence factor. It can be seen as flat bet , but recalculated on each spin l bet. In short it's modified Kelly kriteria, sometimes modified Klotz, (if l have a chance to target individual numbers). To understand more simple, it's 10 % of bankroll on each spin for vb and 2-5 % for bias.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 10:14:04 PM by MrPerfect. »
 

scepticus

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2016, 10:49:02 PM »
Well, that is clear enough.
If  bankroll !00 units on  first spin bet 10 units
if lost bet 9 units on second spin etc. .
Kelly says in that event your Edge is 10 %. So how do you calculate your 10% Edge ?
Clearly, like me . you  reject some members'  view that 9 chances in 37 is 9 chances in 37 in all cases.

If I understand your basic idea it is that you note spins as wheel speeds-  ball speeds- type of ball- which diamond it hits- the scatter etc. . Take that data home and put that data into your Excel and calculate your Edge. Then you take the result to the  casino and bet. Bet what ? The SAME wheel ? Or, like Bayes , any wheel ?
So, like me, you concentrate on Bet Selection ?
I think that any data still needs to be analysed before it can be of any use so I think that you don't have a true  Edge but an Edge based on your assumptions and assumptions are not "Facts ".
I think my betting Flat Bets makes Money Management easier  than the Kelly- of which I am familiar. To me " familiar" only means having a good understanding of the particular subject  The Kelly is widely held to be the best method of betting but I think it is overrated.It still  needs  the " Guess " to be right .
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2016, 11:45:42 PM »
Yes, something along these lines... not that straight forward, but very similar. 
  It doesn't really matter how you choose your bet selection, be it by vb or bias play, or even both combined, need to be conservative. I very often underbet.  For example, if observed edge was between 60% on one case and 10% on other, l may set my reasonable expectations around 15 % if everything is good and avoid playing entirely if it's not that good at the moment. All depends on how detailed model of situation l was able to create and for how much it corresponding reality in current situation.
   Data is data, it's valid only for a wheel/ ball on wich it was taken and only for a set of conditions in wich it was taken. For minor changes you can adjust , however conditions out of your model should be studied separately.  More factors you control, less variance you will have....
  And last but not least... when underbeting - risk win less, when overbetting- risk to loose.
   Kelly is beautiful form of betting, but not easy to implement. I use fair aproximation to it , wich is more adapted to units avaliable and simplify calculations a bit.
  Some of the data can be analysed on the go... often it's more fair representation of current situation. To do so, players do charts . After some expirience in playing , you often can predict how your chart gonna look like long before completing it. Obviously it's better to collect data during couple of sessions just to know what to expect.
  Some players get overconfident with expirience... they reduce amount of variables they take, it reduces their average edge also on the long run, but greatly simplifies the game. It's always a trade off between effort and reward.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2016, 12:06:56 AM by MrPerfect. »
 

scepticus

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2016, 12:17:37 AM »
I think our attitude to risk is similar and I think the Kelly needs approximation unless you have an extremely high bankroll .
If  bankroll is 100 1st Bet 10 .If lost bank now 90 10% of which is 9 so  2nd bet is 9 which if lost leaves the bank at  81. 10% of which is 8 .1 which you cannot bet so appr is  8 which is the next bet.etc..
Data is only valid for the wheel from which it was taken is a view that I expressed  in the   forum before but was rejected by some .
I think you do reduce the variables in VB so you trade more risk for more profit . The natural instinct of a gambler.

I only need the results of two spins before my calculation so have no need of much “ data “. As my bet has the same odds every time I think the Kelly is unsuitable for my kind of betting.

 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2016, 12:37:58 AM »
 Kelly takes edge into equation. It's simply not good for system play, unless you play systems on the wheel that already offers edge.
    You got idea of simplification a bit wrong..  in fact entirely oposite. If you take less populated profile of variables, you will risk more( variance) and for LESS profits. Its due to the fact that need to devide your bet for confidence factor. Less confidence you have- less your starting bet, less your reasonably expected edge. Sometimes such approach is reasonable, to reduce exposure for survilance for example. But if you in fact do have possibility to collect data properly, it's always better to do it.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2016, 12:48:16 AM »
 A bit on the gambling...  l do not gamble. Simply have no guts for it. I may make a higher bet on better conditions, if they are offered.... but very often l underbet. It's not that long ego that l stop to freak out when need to rase a unit. Before that moment my game was for peanuts mostly... boring long hours to validate edge with flat betting. It took me considerable effort ( psychological ) to actually start to bet properly.
 

Bebediktus

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Re: Risk / Reward
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2016, 10:44:03 AM »

If  bankroll is 100 1st Bet 10 .If lost bank now 90 10% of which is 9 so  2nd bet is 9 which if lost leaves the bank at  81. 10% of which is 8 .1 which you cannot bet so appr is  8 which is the next bet.etc..

Kelly is proportional bet acordingly your edge, when you calculated , that your edge is 10 % you bet 10 from 100.

Now if we will simply compare two situattion - three wins in row and three loss in row we have +33 or -27. So in similar situattion with positive end - we win more than in the same situattion with negative end.