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Author Topic: Is Your Wheel Healthy?  (Read 1102 times)

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Reyth

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Is Your Wheel Healthy?
« on: October 16, 2016, 02:31:47 AM »
A healthy engine has all of its spark plugs firing properly, "on all cylinders".



A healthy roulette wheel is the same way, firing approximately 24-25 uniques every cycle of 37 spins. 

When this fails to happen, the wheel is in a dangerous state with larger portions than statistically expected go missing; i.e. we get worse than statistically expected results (variance).



Being able to read these wheel states can be helpful at certain times like above where we see that our bet selection (which was the number 16) hit on this turn (76) and did so outside of expectation (58 spins since last hit).

We can see that it is fortunate that our number hit when it did because in the last 37 spins we have transitioned from a healthy state into an unhealthy one where there is a very oppresssive 16 repeats every 37 spins.  This is the perfect oppotunity to reset this session and leave a wheel that is more likely than statistically expected to sleep our number selection.

Its when we blindly push forward without realizing the state of the wheel that increases our chances of getting nailed by variance.

At least by tracking the health of the wheel, there are times where we can make an informed decision & consciously choose whether to bet under the wheel conditions or not.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2016, 03:33:42 AM by Reyth »


 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Is Your Wheel Healthy?
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 08:32:53 AM »
I taught the working of diesel engines for oceangoing ships. I see no connection with roulette.
Please what is the source  of the image. Without a clear explanation,it is trash.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Your Wheel Healthy?
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 02:40:59 PM »
 Why not reverse thinking? Look when wheel is " not helfy" and capitalise on that instead?
 

Reyth

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Re: Is Your Wheel Healthy?
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2016, 03:58:42 PM »
I taught the working of diesel engines for oceangoing ships. I see no connection with roulette.
Please what is the source  of the image. Without a clear explanation,it is trash.

Well I am not an engineer nor a mechanic but let's say that an engine needs to have 4 spark plugs that are all firing at 100% efficiency/capacity to be "mechanically healthy".

In the same way a roulette wheel needs to be firing 12-13 repeat numbers for every 37 spins to be "statistically healthy".  If we have more repeaters than that, we will get results that are outside of expectation (variance).

Why not reverse thinking? Look when wheel is " not helfy" and capitalise on that instead?

Yes, if we have a repeater system we can actively hunt repeaters when they are more likely to hit.  Conversely, unique numbers as well. :D

Generally speaking though (not repeater systems), for all systems a healthy wheel will always have 12-13 or less repeaters per 37 cycle.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Is Your Wheel Healthy?
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2016, 08:22:57 PM »
The picture shos 2 sparkplugs and 4 valves. @ inlet and two outlet valves. Witha spark all the valves ar closed. The picture is of a 4 strike petro engine.

Back to the roulette.

You reflect to the 2/3 rule . This rule is based on mathematic. See the explanation of Bayes.

You can not expect that the ratio of R/B of the 24 numbers is 1
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Your Wheel Healthy?
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2016, 07:41:54 AM »
I taught the working of diesel engines for oceangoing ships. I see no connection with roulette.
Please what is the source  of the image. Without a clear explanation,it is trash.

Well I am not an engineer nor a mechanic but let's say unhealthy  engine needs to have 4 spark plugs that are all firing at 100% efficiency/capacity to be "mechanically healthy".

In the same way a roulette wheel needs to be firing 12-13 repeat numbers for every 37 spins to be "statistically healthy".  If we have more repeaters than that, we will get results that are outside of expectation (variance).

Why not reverse thinking? Look when wheel is " not helfy" and capitalise on that instead?

Yes, if we have a repeater system we can actively hunt repeaters when they are more likely to hit.  Conversely, unique numbers as well. :D

Generally speaking though (not repeater systems), for all systems a healthy wheel will always have 12-13 or less repeaters per 37 cycle.
Reyth, even relatively " healthy" wheel would display " unhealthy" behavior from time to time.
  If you can recognise these moments, you got yoirself personal gold mine on at least 30 % of wheels out there
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 07:45:28 AM by MrPerfect. »
 
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Real

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Re: Is Your Wheel Healthy?
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2016, 02:46:50 PM »
1. The last thing you guys want is a perfectly healthy wheel.  If the wheel was completely random, then you guys couldn't beat it.  It would wipe you out overtime. What you really want is a defective or biased wheel.

2. In small samples 1 to 1000 or so spins, even completely random wheels will appear non random.  However, such a wheel is still random, because that's what random does, it acts "randomly".

3. If you want to know how healthy a wheel is, there's a test that you can use.  It's called the chi square test.  It can provide you with confidence ranges based on the fitness of your wheel.  As a spin sample grows, the chi will gradually grow as well.  However, don't waste your time testing small spin samples of 70 or 100 spins.

4. An additional test for your wheels is standard deviation testing of the individual numbers hit.

-Real