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Author Topic: I can feel a psychological stress before I start to change my style of play.  (Read 1996 times)

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Sputnik

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I can feel a psychological stress before I start to change my style of play.
Now I feel calm when I nearly always playing with the casino's money and not my own.

I implement Regression Up & Pull with all my staking plans.

Cheers


 
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Bebediktus

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Sputning all depends on your edge - you have stress, because you understand that play negative game. That you play from wining money not change nothing - i live from wining money and i not have others.

Stress is because you are not sure in your game. If you will have at least 5% edge over casino - you will foregeth all stress  :) .
 
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kav

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Nice subject!

Bebe,
Stress is natural IMO. Winners have stress. A 5% edge can always produce a loss.

Sputnik,
Can you tell us a bit more about Regression Up & Pull ?
 

Bebediktus

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Bebe,
Stress is natural IMO. Winners have stress. A 5% edge can always produce a loss.

Stress and fear begets uncertainty. You simply not imagine what is that 5% and you are in war situattion with mathematick, if you even use such word as ALWAYS  ;D .
What is that 5 % ? Imagine that if ball hit to 0-32-15 you simply not lost your bets  they stay for next spin but if ball hits to other numbers  you have after spin payment as normally . Such is a rule from casino  !

What you do in this case - simply NEVER bet theese 0-32-15 and can bet all rest numbers and will be 2 units plus.
Or even other - you simply name  before spin, how much you bet and dealer no matter which number comes pay you 0.05 of your named sum  :) .

The only fear is how to make that such rule will be in casino longer   :) and the only stress - that they will take out that rule from next spin ....
 

kav

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If you don't believe me, listen to some top BJ players with 4% edge who were months on losing streaks. Variance(luck) can beat up a 5% edge quite easily for many sessions.
 
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Bebediktus

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If you don't believe me, listen to some top BJ players with 4% edge who were months on losing streaks. Variance(luck) can beat up a 5% edge quite easily for many sessions.
I was BJ player  and  still now sometimes play. Stoped play about 10 years back because automats for dealing and multibans  when let me play 1.5-2 decks from 6.
Any top BJ player not have 4% edge averidge edge. In averidge BJ player have 0.7-1.2% edge for 100 000 hands.
Mine play was based on shufle tracking  - that is many steps in front card counting, but still in long run mine edge never was greater than 2.5-3 %.

Plus BJ is not roulette . BJ is much more disperssional game.
In Roulette 5% is almoust not loosing  situattion in every 100 spins , or maybe in 50 spins and for sure in 1000 spins.

I cant say how much bets i make per month, but i really not remember month in which i end  in minus. But i not have 5 % advantage....

So guys, better learn abit match, at least to understand what you need.
 

kav

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Bebe,

You want to use math? You are more that welcome. Please tell me how you calculate your edge in roulette?

I don't want to tell me how you get that edge, I have given up hope any AP would explain that in this forum (except maybe MrPerfect). So I just want you to tell me how you calculate it. What equation do you use to calculate your advantage? You know that all this talk about player edge in roulette with AP methods is arbitrary.

At least the house edge is very obvious and hard coded to the game. This house edge is easily calculated.

Now your or any AP supposed edge is just an assumption, a guess. Even if you use thousands of spins data you are still assuming that the wheel is biased. You can not be sure how much of the anomalies are due to bias or due to variance. You just guess. Or if you believe you can visually predict where the ball can land in that specific wheel, your edge is also a guess. How can you accurately measure your prediction ability? How do you calculate your edge as 5% and not as 7% or 4%? It is all arbitrary guesswork - let alone wishful thinking.

Bebe you want math, I'll give you math.
I challenge you, Real, Mike or anyone else who talks too much about math to present the equation that he uses to calculate the players edge.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2016, 09:55:20 AM by kav »
 
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Bebediktus

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Bebe,

You want to use math? You are more that welcome. Please tell me how you calculate your edge in roulette?

At least the house edge is very obvious and hard coded to the game. This house edge is easily calculated.

Now your or any AP supposed edge is just an assumption, a guess. Even if you use thousands of spins data you are still assuming that the wheel is biased. You can not be sure how much of the anomalies are due to bias or due to variance. You just guess. Or if you believe you can visually predict where the ball can land in that specific wheel, your edge is also a guess. How can you accurately measure your prediction ability? How do you calculate your edge as 5% and not as 7% or 4%? It is all arbitrary guesswork - let alone wishful thinking.

Bebe you want math, I'll give you math.
I challenge you, Real, Mike or anyone else who talks too much about math to present the equation that he uses to calculate the players edge.
Realy not understand - you want to compeete with me who better can calculate edge ? No problem, we can do that. Only for that we need refery which will decide who of us is right  :) .

And other from where we will find so competetive refery ?

Kav that is simply mathematick . I will not say how that do me, simply because maybe you will throw the glove and will say that you can do that more acurate, so i must keep mine weapon hiden  ;D .

But that talk will not be empty i will say you that  roulette is nothing more like shooting to aim - shooters shoots  and get point which them collect more - is better shooter and have bigger edge.

Edge in roulette is the same as ROI ( return of investments ) in poker. You place bets  and gets returns if after 1000 $ beting you have 1100$  possible to think that this part of game you played with 10% edge, or that was simply luck.
Is that simply luck or not we can calculate acordingly standart deviation formulas. If they show that luck here have  less than 1% chances, - I think is enough to believe. that in calculation edge we are right.

If you know match - you have no problems at all to calculate all himself. And such questtion you will never give if you know match part.....

If oposite, then you will have problems, even with understanding mine explanattions.... :)
« Last Edit: September 26, 2016, 02:45:56 PM by Bebediktus »
 
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kav

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Bebe,

You want to use math? You are more that welcome. Please tell me how you calculate your edge in roulette?

At least the house edge is very obvious and hard coded to the game. This house edge is easily calculated.

Now your or any AP supposed edge is just an assumption, a guess. Even if you use thousands of spins data you are still assuming that the wheel is biased. You can not be sure how much of the anomalies are due to bias or due to variance. You just guess. Or if you believe you can visually predict where the ball can land in that specific wheel, your edge is also a guess. How can you accurately measure your prediction ability? How do you calculate your edge as 5% and not as 7% or 4%? It is all arbitrary guesswork - let alone wishful thinking.

Bebe you want math, I'll give you math.
I challenge you, Real, Mike or anyone else who talks too much about math to present the equation that he uses to calculate the players edge.
Realy not understand - you want to compeete with me who better can calculate edge ? No problem, we can do that. Only for that we need refery which will decide who of us is right  :) .
No. I don't say I have an edge. You say you have an edge.
My question is:Do you know how much edge you have?
If you know, how do you calculate it BEFORE starting an attack.

Calculating your wins after the attack is nothing of value. The question is how do you calculate your positive edge BEFORE starting an attack. Comparing with standard deviation only shows that you have an edge, it does not tell you exactly how much that is. Because you never know exactly how much of the results are due to deviation or due to your ability.

My point is that you talk a lot about math, but you don't even have the math to calculate exactly your (hypothetical) "advantage".
 
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Bebediktus

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Quote
My question is:Do you know how much edge you have?
Yes usually i know.
Quote
If you know, how do you calculate it BEFORE starting an attack.
I calculate it not before some attack, but when i train. Say i train on 20 wheels and write on all mine results, then acordingly this data i know  which mine edge  is. I calculate it as ROI that is most exact way.
Quote
Calculating your wins after the attack is nothing of value.
About what attacks you talk ? You must understand all process - say you are runner and run 100 metters and usually you show result from 9.83  till 10.17 . You must understand that theese results are not random if you are good runner you can even before start know which result you can aim, because is some lowest minimum - slower you cant run. Of course can be all stay you started bad and pull the muscle, such can be  but , before start you not think about that because that not must be and what is MUST - is that your result will be 10,17 or better.

The same is on roulette , say i play 15 numbers and i know from mine experience how many times i hit from 100. Maximal possible value is all  so 100  , are some averidge value  and are some minimal value  and some mine record to max say  minumal is 35 maximal is 72 and averidge is 47.

On diferent wheels theese numbers will be slight diferent, but you must remember - that i not play wheels, on which i  not hope to win.
How i detect which wheel to play which no I will not say - that is too much from your side.
Only what i can say is that what edge i have  in trainings or in observattions  - that number i divide by 5 and that is about what i can expect in real play.
So if in observattions i will calculate acordingly results  as +50% - when play it is usually about +10%.

Calculating mine edge  before play is not that i need to know for me to play or not, - for that i have other weapons , but simply that is like statistical value what i can expect after 50 spins after 70 spins after 100 spins and so one and if i have some luck and hit many spins which where predicted wrong - I know that no matter to result i must stop to play because if i will stay and will continue mine result can be worse.

All that is decissions duering play and that is big science, here i have very much room to become better, the same like in all other moments.

I am not super player and i think are many, who play much better than me. Pitty but i not meet them .

Quote
My point is that you talk a lot about math, but you don't even have the math to calculate exactly your (hypothetical) "advantage".
What you mean - I not have math to calculate exactly mine advantage? This value is not stable, but I still try that always to calculate before play. Really i not calculate but say detect - this table is 7% table - this 15% , this 2%.

Of course not always i am right and i can win on 2% table more than on 20% table  ;D .
Sometimes is oposite, but many times less often....

Finally I can say, that mine total advantage through last 20 years is about 3%, was periods when i had more , was when less, but that is about if to count all.
If i will have better discipline that number can be minimum 3 times biger, but that is very hard, because i play abroad  and after long way if not find good table - play on what can and in such situattions not always positive....
 
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kav

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Re: I can feel a psychological stress before I start to change my style of play.
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2016, 05:58:46 PM »
Thank you for your detailed answer.
 
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Reyth

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Re: I can feel a psychological stress before I start to change my style of play.
« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2016, 07:10:22 PM »
Ya dang, training on 20 tables!?

 

Bebediktus

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Re: I can feel a psychological stress before I start to change my style of play.
« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2016, 07:37:48 PM »
Quote
Ya dang, training on 20 tables!?
Yes was time when i had data from 40-50 tables. So training data - predicted and real distances. Now i become lazy, now where i play is about 25-30 wheels, but in mine trip i look maybe 5-10 of them maximum.....
 
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Rinad

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If you don't believe me, listen to some top BJ players with 4% edge who were months on losing streaks. Variance(luck) can beat up a 5% edge quite easily for many sessions.

I agreed, stress can show up no matter what. pro BJ and pro poker players I spoke with all feel that stress during certain times. drawdowns especially.
and also PTSD can also affect us from old past terrible losses. so it there in our subconcious to be triggered when a similar situation repeats. nothing to be ashamed. can be worked out slowly with time and good living.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 01:19:36 AM by Reyth »
 
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Reyth

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I have found stress to be a constant in gambling.  I believe that it is because a money transaction is being made; the more the money, the greater the stress.  I believe that this is a "law of the human condition" and its effect occurs fully on the sunconscious level.

I have heard it said that some people become addicted to this stress; the "thrill" if you will.  I think it is what Al Pacino is referring to in his "pucker-decimal point" speech; how its the thrill and not the result and he goes further and posits that there is more of a thrill in losing -- I can't seem to follow that logic though...
 
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