Author Topic: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.  (Read 1904 times)

Real

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The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« on: September 10, 2016, 06:52:24 PM »
The history of the game. If people would just read on it, then they wouldn't be distracted by nonsense, like the law of the third/GUT.



 The reason it doesn't work is because of the following:

1. The dealer doesn't block a number from hitting once it's hit or block numbers that haven't hit.
2. The same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next. (Look down and count them.)
3. The odds of winning remains unchanged from one spin to the next.
4. The house payout is short. In other words, the payout out on a win will always be short of what the true probability of winning dictates as being fair. This prevents the player from being able to "step outside of probability" and exploit situations like the law of the third/GUT absurdity. ::)

The numbers don't know if they've been "crossed" or if they should hit again, because they're not self aware, and they don't have a memory.

Over the years, many people have tried to test silly systems like the GUT, but along the way they find themselves playing the "if" game instead. "If I would have stopped here. If we would have bet this crossing instead. If we would have continued. If we would have bet more here." The "if" game is basically curve fitting. Sometimes it's intentional, but often times it's unintentional and the result of ignorance and denial. Whenever such systems are coded, the results have proven them to lose...as expected. Unfortunately this leaves the system designers claiming that it's not possible to code such a system because it doesn't take into account the "human element" in the way that hand testing does. In reality, what they really mean to say is that it doesn't enable the player to curve fit the testing results or lie about the results.

 If you really want to beat the game, then read on the history of it. The information about how people have won is there.  Don't be distracted by the nonsense. You can't side step probability in the random game of roulette.

-Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 02:31:22 AM by Real »


 
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slpcorner

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2016, 02:42:24 AM »
Any suggestions for reading material? Maybe a top 5 list?
 

Real

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2016, 03:02:01 AM »
1. "Beating The Wheel" by Russell Barnhart.
2. Ron Shelly's, "Roulette Study"
3. Rouletteresearch.com
4. The history of roulette on google.  Read about how other people have actually won large sums of money.
5. Myrulet.com  There you will find other people that actually play to win.
6. Steve Forte, "Casino Game Protection".
7. Bill Zender, "Casino Management Guide".  (Steve Forte and Bill Zender are both casino risk consultants. Read about what they have to say on the subject and you'll see exactly what it is that the casinos really worry about.)
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 03:07:15 AM by Real »
 
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Real

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2016, 03:18:41 AM »
Regarding the casino risk consultants.  You'll find that none of them ever mention the following:

1. The law of the third absurdity.
2. The GUT nonsense.
3. Triggers or involving rare events.

Why?  Because all three of them are ridiculous.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 03:22:54 AM by Real »
 

Mike

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2016, 08:05:32 AM »
Quote
Unfortunately this leaves the system designers claiming that it's not possible to code such a system because it doesn't take into account the "human element" in the way that hand testing does. In reality, what they really mean to say is that it doesn't enable the player to curve fit the testing results or lie about the results.

Right. Years ago on the VLS forum a guy named Kon fu Sed coded Winkel's GUT system. As expected, the results were negative. Winkel was completely unfazed by this and just said it was necessary to use what he called "gambler's intelligence"; you couldn't just blindly follow the rules of the system.  ::)

He never actually said what gambler's intelligence is - GUT feeling perhaps?  ;D

It's such a cop out. The "human element" can be coded just like anything else, it's just that no one is ever able to say what it is.  ::)
 
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Janusz

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2016, 12:44:48 PM »
BTW GUT has nothing to do with LOTT. But because this guy with the 1000nds of nicknames around isn´t able to understand so he spreads his nonsense over all the forums of the world

He refuses to answer the simple question:

If we count the numbers unhit and hit: Will there be a point where the unhit became less than the hit?
And secondly: Has this to happen? Must it happen?
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 12:47:14 PM by Janusz »
 

Janusz

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2016, 12:48:57 PM »

He never actually said what gambler's intelligence is - GUT feeling perhaps?  ;D


What is intelligence?
If you know that, you can presume what gambler´s intelligence is.
 

Mike

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2016, 02:26:39 PM »
Winkel,

You can have an IQ of 200 and it won't help to predict the next random number. If you disagree then there must be a rule (otherwise you're just guessing). If you're not just guessing, why didn't you include this rule in your explanation of how to play the GUT?
 
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Janusz

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2016, 02:43:19 PM »
Winkel,

You can have an IQ of 200 and it won't help to predict the next random number. If you disagree then there must be a rule (otherwise you're just guessing). If you're not just guessing, why didn't you include this rule in your explanation of how to play the GUT?

I don´t predict the next number.
I make an educated guess which group of numbers has the best chance to hit.
How to predict this group is written so many times.

 

Real

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2016, 03:06:15 PM »
Quote
If we count the numbers unhit and hit: Will there be a point where the unhit became less than the hit?
And secondly: Has this to happen? Must it happen?

A number that hasn't hit and a number that has hit have no idea as to whether they are supposed to hit.  Using such logic will not increase the accuracy of your predictions.  It's part of the gambler's fallacy. 

After proving that the GUT nonsense would not work by demonstrating the logic and math, it was also coded.  As expected it failed.  It performed no better than random guessing. ::)

The GUT is just another plagerized version of the old law of the third system.



Sorry, just the facts,

Really
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 03:17:16 PM by Real »
 

Mike

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2016, 04:41:57 PM »
I make an educated guess which group of numbers has the best chance to hit.


An educated guess based on past spins.  ::)
 

RouletteGhost

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2016, 05:29:05 PM »
 

Janusz

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2016, 06:23:37 PM »
Quote
If we count the numbers unhit and hit: Will there be a point where the unhit became less than the hit?
And secondly: Has this to happen? Must it happen?

A number that hasn't hit and a number that has hit have no idea as to whether they are supposed to hit.  Using such logic will not increase the accuracy of your predictions.  It's part of the gambler's fallacy. 

Sorry, just the facts,

Really

Your statement is not any kind of answer to my question.
You understand that the number/pocket has a brain and is able to make decisions. That is nonsense.

But the fact, that 19/37 of the pockets have the chance of 19/37 to hit is a fact for mathematicians.
And it is no need, that this group of 19 numbers or pockets have any certain content. I can mix them up, like I want.

and it is a fact, that crossing do cross. sooner or later.
 

Janusz

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2016, 06:27:13 PM »
I make an educated guess which group of numbers has the best chance to hit.


An educated guess based on past spins.  ::)

Past spins? What are past spins?
When an AP-Guy watches a wheel for some 1000 spins, aren´t that past spins as well?

When we have 37 possible events, we can only see what happened, when we make 37 trials.
What you call "past spins" are the active events in the ongoing circle of 37 spins.
 
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Real

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Re: The GUT and Law Of The Third Nonsense.
« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2016, 07:15:59 PM »
Quote
Past spins? What are past spins?
When an AP-Guy watches a wheel for some 1000 spins, aren´t that past spins as well?-winkel

An ap is using the information to judge the fitness of the gaming device.  Meaning testing for bias via chi square/standard deviation testing.



 The system player attempting to play the GUT/ law of the third is not using the past spins to test the fitness of the gaming device, but is instead naively trying to exploit patterns in randomness. This is the part of the gambler's fallacy...a fool's folly.  It would be like trying to exploit the law of 18/37 in order to beat the even chances. 
It in no way improves the ability to make a prediction.

Just the facts,

-Really
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 07:29:24 PM by Real »