### Author Topic: How good is the play?  (Read 1346 times)

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#### Jesper

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##### How good is the play?
« on: August 14, 2016, 03:57:32 AM »
We can estimated the play many ways, like how much we win in an hour or lose total. But that may not say all about the performance of the method used.  If we play on a wheel with one zero, we have 2,7 % against us. This 2,7% is from turnover.

We should compare the expected loss, to the result in units. If we think we win not enough in an hour, we shall chip up if the method works well and the bankroll permit.

We can using a high variance play win or lose more, and that can change a lot.  We have to win over the HA to get any units plus.

It is not hard to see, a high turn over is not very good if the HA is high. Betting a lot of numbers is not the best choice(on wheel with no HA it does not matter).

I have tried a few spins on a zero wheel, and will do some more trials. I play real money, but very low, so the real money I can lose or win is not very much, but I like to test real.

90   36 spins  234 to.
15    7 spins   21 to.
9   21 spins   99 to.
21    5 spins   15 to.
12    8 spins   24 to.
108  34 spins  216 to.
24    4 spins   24 to.
60   19 spins   84 to.
18    6 spins   18 to.
15    7 spins   21 to.
6   10 spins   30 to.
12    8 spins   24 to.
33    1 spin     3 to.
30    2 spins    6 to.
18    6 spins   18 to.

Total  471 units in 174 spins
Turn over  837.

Won 471, expected is loss of 22.6.

84   44 spins    384 to.
12    8 spins     24 to.
12    8 spins     24 to.
54   28 spins     54 to.
36   11 spins     36 to.
12   38 spins    276 to.
15    7 spins     21 to.
24    4 spins     12 to.
27    3 spins      9 to.
45   25 spins    135 to.
30    2 spins      6 to.
27    3 spins      9 to.

Subtot 378 in 181 spins, turn over 990
expected is loss of 26.8.

Tot  won 849 units, expected is  -49.4.

If the chips won is close to the expected loss times -1, even if it is rather much, the performance of the method is weak.

The following users thanked this post: december

#### december

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##### Re: How good is the play?
« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2016, 05:25:35 AM »
Thanks Jesper! As usual, i can't find in text what kind of bet you are doing...

#### Jesper

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##### Re: How good is the play?
« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2016, 07:38:11 AM »
Thanks Jesper! As usual, i can't find in text what kind of bet you are doing...

I should be possible to find out. Three units on a group of three numbers. The method is described in an other thread.  Ten times on three numbers, if no hit rise one.

#### GameNeverOver

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##### Re: How good is the play?
« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2016, 07:00:55 AM »
@Jesper

Are you still hunting unicorns?

If not, then give us a little more in depth explanations of these methods/approaches of yours.

#### Jesper

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##### Re: How good is the play?
« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2016, 09:05:33 AM »
OK, I have done it in some other treads. This is on a zero-wheel which pays fair on straight ups. Instead of putting a chip on a street which pay 11 I play three straight ups which pay 36, which means total 12 instead of 11.

we bet the "street" 10 times, if a hit we bet 10 times again (we can shift numbers any time). If no hit add a chips on the three spots. If two or more hits in 10 spins, we reduce the chips, by one less the number of hits. End when on a higher bank.

I think this play should be done on a wheel with no HA. It can be some chips turned over before we win, and that will be of a lot of help if no HA.