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Author Topic: A winner or not?  (Read 3174 times)

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mr j

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A winner or not?
« on: August 09, 2016, 08:42:55 PM »
I've had this Kenny kick a** question for awhile now, curious what the responses will be.

You test your system over 10 million spins using your fancy RX (whatever its called) and it finishes at +4 units.

Is this a winning system (by your definition) or not?

Ken


 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2016, 09:21:06 PM »
System is great!!! Perfect cover bets. Whatever you are able to bite out of casino bank is winning, but time would be lost.
 

Reyth

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2016, 11:49:16 PM »
Definitely a winner.  Results stabilize at 10M to a very large degree.  As long as the simulation is completely fair and realistic.  If you have any profit at all, no matter how small, its a MASSIVE victory. 

Its basically saying, "I can play roulette blindfolded using this system and nothing I can possibly expect from the wheel will make any difference in the fact that I will be profitable in every session."

A system that wins 4 units over 10 million spins, wins ALOT more under the most common wheel results.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2016, 11:52:13 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2016, 12:03:11 AM »
I've had this Kenny kick a** question for awhile now, curious what the responses will be.

You test your system over 10 million spins using your fancy RX (whatever its called) and it finishes at +4 units.

Is this a winning system (by your definition) or not?

Ken

Since we are constantly told that we MUST lose over ONE million spins then I think that math geeks  would say that youhave made a mistake somewhere .
Me ? I would say that it is a winner.
Depends on your perspective .
 

Real

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2016, 12:14:01 AM »
+4 units in a million spins is nothing.  It's insignificant.  It's not worth crossing the street.  The fluctuations/variance wouldn't be tolerable along the way.
 
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mr j

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2016, 04:07:17 AM »
+4 units in a million spins is nothing.  It's insignificant.  It's not worth crossing the street.  The fluctuations/variance wouldn't be tolerable along the way.

I agree 100%. I say this is NOT a winner (imo).

Ken
 

Jesper

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2016, 04:14:40 AM »
Be plus over a million spins an a wheel with HA of 2.7 or 5.25 % is not  bad. Have a try?  If successful we should have doubt of the wheel.
On a wheel with no HA, I will say it is quite possible half of the trials.
 

Trilobite

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2016, 06:32:56 AM »
It's a winner on paper.

It has to be because it won 4 units over the required 1 million spins.

But it is totally useless to anyone unless you were playing 1 million dollar units and you played 100 spins a day 4 days a week for 30 years then taught your son how to play then he took over and played the same way for 22 years, then he gave the 4 million dollars profit to your grandson so he could buy a little house or something in the year 2068.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2016, 06:34:54 AM by Trilobite »
 

Reyth

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2016, 08:50:17 AM »
Look after a million trials a profit of 4 units just means its a profitable system.  That means its a system you can rely upon not that it will only produce 4 units profit.
 

scepticus

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2016, 01:04:46 PM »
+4 units in a million spins is nothing.  It's insignificant.  It's not worth crossing the street.  The fluctuations/variance wouldn't be tolerable along the way.

I agree 100%. I say this is NOT a winner (imo).

Ken

Your question ken, was"is it a winner" It clearly has " won ".
Your answer , and Real's,is to the question " Is it worthwhile ".Or YOUR definition of a winning  system
is different to mine.
If I win 4 units over one million spins than I have destroyed the belief that any system must lose over the long term. Or is ONE million spins NOT enough  long term?
 

mr j

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2016, 07:35:46 PM »
+4 units in a million spins is nothing.  It's insignificant.  It's not worth crossing the street.  The fluctuations/variance wouldn't be tolerable along the way.

I agree 100%. I say this is NOT a winner (imo).

Ken

Your question ken, was"is it a winner" It clearly has " won ".
Your answer , and Real's,is to the question " Is it worthwhile ".Or YOUR definition of a winning  system
is different to mine.
If I win 4 units over one million spins than I have destroyed the belief that any system must lose over the long term. Or is ONE million spins NOT enough  long term?

Thats a great notice on your part, I guess its all in the wording. I really should of said...ON PAPER. Yes, on paper it is a winner but I also feel the less experienced guys will all say...YES ITS A WINNER without factoring in anything else. My attempt to embarrass them? Sure, why not, if it gets my point across.

All methods used at a REAL CASINO must be worth it, not to mention DRIVE TIME to and from.

Ken
 

Reyth

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2016, 07:39:54 PM »
No, the knee-jerk reaction here is to say "4 units, that sucks" without realizing the full import and significance of any profit over a million trials.  You can't gain even 1 unit of profit without a very significant edge.
 

Real

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2016, 07:59:57 PM »
Quote
No, the knee-jerk reaction here is to say "4 units, that sucks" without realizing the full import and significance of any profit over a million trials.  You can't gain even 1 unit of profit without a very significant edge.-Reyth

Reyth,

It's insignificant, and no edge would be required.  It would be very easy to design an up as you lose progression that would enable the player to be in profit after 1 million trials.  Being up 4 units is meaningless.  Along the way, to a million plus spins, the player would likely be experiencing negative fluctuations requiring hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in order to recoup the losses encountered along the way.   

If the player was up four units while flat betting for one million spins, then that would be more impressive, but the  trivial edge would be far far too low to make it worth while, or interesting enough to "seriously" play.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2016, 08:07:58 PM by Real »
 
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scepticus

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2016, 08:24:34 PM »
Quote
No, the knee-jerk reaction here is to say "4 units, that sucks" without realizing the full import and significance of any profit over a million trials.  You can't gain even 1 unit of profit without a very significant edge.-Reyth

Reyth,

It's insignificant, and no edge would be required.  It would be very easy to design an up as you lose progression that would enable the player to be in profit after 1 million trials.  Being up 4 units is meaningless.  Along the way, to a million plus spins, the player would likely be experiencing negative fluctuations requiring hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in order to recoup the losses encountered along the way.   

If the player was up four units while flat betting for one million spins, then that would be more impressive, but the  trivial edge would be far far too low to make it worth while, or interesting enough to "seriously" play.
You still don't understand the point that Reyth and I are making. Many members are looking to make a megabucks profit while some, like Reyth and,  I  are quite happy to take any profit.So, it is different strokes for different folks
Just how , for instance can you say that you could easily devise a system that would produce an insignificant profit when you previously have  said that any Method would lose over  the long term ?
And also say that no edge is necessary for such an insignificant when you have also claimed that you need to create an edge ?
As I have said you are talking about betting being "worthwhile" while I and Reyth are content NOT to lose and PROVE - as you now agree- that it is NOT true that we must lose in the long run using a Method
Thanks for the confirmation..
 

Reyth

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Re: A winner or not?
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2016, 09:00:20 PM »
There is no way to tell what the fluctuations will be without seeing actual ouput.  The fact remains that 4 units of profit is an extraordinary event.
 
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