As a card counter I stay mostly away from roulette. to my opinion ( I can be wrong) we can use strategies but strategies lose in the long run if we play a game what gives us no betting advantage what so ever. Yes you can win beating standard deviation in the short run. Also I agree there is some misunderstanding about gamblers fallacy and what is actually the long run. Another discussing might be that we can not play for the long run cause we are outlived by the long run. In that case we can indeed play for the short run and be lucky the rest of our lives.
I have seen some interesting strategies here and the most interesting is kavouras bet. I would like to see a follow up on it and how to use it using it towards using some kind of progression. negative or positive. I use it as entertainment but it is a funny an chaotic bet and that is what I like about it. It hits very often actually so in a way we should be able to gain with a smart strategy around it. the point is what is the smartest strategy using this bet?
Look forward to the answers,
But again Kav we look forward to your follow up on this.
I mentioned earlier that I tested the KAVOURAS BET. It's not unusual that it wins relatively often (after all, you play 20 numbers scattered around the wheel and the table). But if you play it as an exclusive system, sooner or later you will run into situations where those 20 numbers in this bet will fail to come up for quite a few spins. And using a progression on 20 numbers can be very vey expensive, it can wipe out all the winnings you had up to that point, if those 20 numbers decide to disappear for a period of consecutive spins.
In the few days that I tested this system I found that the 20 numbers in this bet don't exceed 5 spins without the presence of any of those 20 #'s. Meaning that if you sit in front of the roulette, and place VIRTUAL BETS on those numbers, (betting them in your mind, rather than betting them in the table with actual $'s), and wait till you lose 4 consecutive bets, according to my testing, the 5th bet should come your way. In other words you saved all your money, that you otherwise would've lost in 4 bets (and it's a lot of money even without progression), and by betting real money only in the 5th and maybe the 6th spin, your chances are very high that you will hit one of those 20 numbers. Simply because, the testing proved that the limit of this bet failing to show up is no more that 5 consecutive spins.
But to get a more accurate picture I would test this system for thousands of spins to come up with a more robust figure. So whatever the limit of consecutive spins is, where the numbers in this bet don't come up, you can adjust the numbers of your VIRTUAL LOSSES accordingly , before you commence the actual betting. Even if it will seems that you lost many opportunities for profit if you had skipped the virtual bets. All you need is one time of consecutive actual losses, and your winnings of all the previous successful bets, will be wiped out in just one bad time. The price you pay is WAITING TIME when you introduce the VIRTUAL BETTING, IN JUST ABOUT EVERY SYSTEM THERE IS, but the benefits of getting closer to the success chances are unmatched.
I use VIRTUAL LOSS betting in all my systems and it proved to be a life saver. It makes the difference between LOSING and WINNING in the long run.
Try this simple trick. Stand in front of a roulette and make a virtual bet on any 50% chance numbers ( R/B, O/E, H/L), Keep betting (virtually) spin after spin. See how many times you will lose in a row
. I bet you will hit it within maybe 5-7 bets. IF IT ever GETS THERE.
However if you bet right from the start with actual bets, and you lose, you have to double your bet each time only to win your initial bet. With $5 chip minimum, your 5 bet progression will look like 5 10 20 40 80 ( $155 risk to win just $5).
The same logic applies in the KAVOURAS BET.
As far as progression in the kavouras bet is a personal choice. It's not easy to use progression on 20 numbers scattered around the table. I would use one of the groups in this bet ( the 6 number line 31-36) as an equalizer. Meaning I will sacrifice it to make no profit, only to give me my bet's money back if it hits. Then I will have extra money to increase the bets in the other 14 numbers. Where the profit will be more substantial, as I will only have 14 number progression instead of 20.
Besides I would only play the kavouras bet 2 times after 4 VIRTUAL LOSSES. Maybe 3. There is always another cycle where the small exception to the overwhelming winning chances will be too weak o prevail.