Author Topic: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)  (Read 2136 times)

lone wolf

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RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« on: August 01, 2016, 12:54:09 AM »
I've been testing this method in simulation mode for a couple of weeks with profitable results.  I went live (real money) a few hours ago.  It's based on the belief that online RNG will over a reasonable time, try to create spins close to the probabilities dictated by the math for each bet.  I believe the RNG provided by reputable online software companies and certified as "fair" by third party auditors will accomplish this.  I also assume the software isn't rigged by the casino to recognize betting patterns and adjust to them. Thus, the selection of casino to play must be subject to enough due diligence to satisfy yourself the game is on the up and up so to speak.  And if you don't get the answers you seek from the casino, move on and find another who is transparent.

As a futures trader, I never employ a negative progression when I lose as a matter of sound money management and that rule applies here, too.  This is a flat bet strategy. I don't chase losses nor increase unit size when I'm behind, which has yet to occur so far, but it could and will happen the more I play.   

The starting bankroll is 72 units and each wager is 1 unit on one number only.  Choose any number for the first cycle of play--it doesn't matter. If your number hits, place your next cycle bet on a different one. Likewise for subsequent cycles.  At anytime you lose the 72 units, you're done for the day win, lose, or draw.  Also, it makes sense to have a reasonable profit goal which, if hit, you stop playing for the day.  Pressing ones luck and getting greedy isn't prudent in any game with a negative expectancy as far as I'm concerned. 

I started my real money, first cycle round with number 18.  It hit on the 20th spin.
Second cycle was 19.  It hit on the 7th spin.
Third cycle was 20.  It hit on the 12th spin.
Fourth cycle was 21.  It hit on the 6th spin.
Fifth and final cycle was 22.  It hit on the 29th spin.

This session took approximately 40 minutes winning 102 units.

Just dumb luck, right?

« Last Edit: August 01, 2016, 01:03:51 AM by lone wolf »


 
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Reyth

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2016, 01:02:39 AM »
No the odds in your favor (over 62%) to cut a profit; you can think of it like it was betting two dozens.

I am currently using the exact same system but with a very tame progression which you can find here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=422.msg4694#msg4694

I fully agree with your appraisal of online RNG casinos but I think you will find we are in the minority on this forum. ;)
 
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Shadowman

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2016, 06:21:02 AM »
Lone wolf

That is a nice idea, and I also found it interesting what Reyth says about a number hitting 2/3 of the time.

I wonder if playing several numbers, each with its own capital, would maybe smooth out the equity curve.

Mike
 
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Reyth

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2016, 07:23:28 AM »
Hey Shadow quit reading my mind!  :P

I was actually wanting to try 2 numbers with a 17 spin rotation to see what would happen.  Of course that would increase the bankroll requirement too...
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2016, 09:08:15 AM »
Lone Wolf I regonize your idea g.m. as the Pivot method.
Accidental I wrote 2 weeks ago a paper for a Dutch roulette site about the weekness of the Pivot method. I have suggested to take the nummer which makes together with the last number 36 as the Pivot number. This is based on the 36 rule and the Dobbelsteen triangel
 
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kav

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2016, 11:04:57 AM »
Very interesting system/strategy discussion based on a nice idea.
I completely disagree with flat betting. If you hate neg progression, use a positive (up as you win) one.
Without a progression one simply hopes to guess better than the average player.
 

lone wolf

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2016, 12:45:13 PM »
Very interesting system/strategy discussion based on a nice idea.
I completely disagree with flat betting. If you hate neg progression, use a positive (up as you win) one.
Without a progression one simply hopes to guess better than the average player.

Hi Kav.

Of course I thought about employing a positive progression, but haven't determined how much I want to be in the green before doing it or the adjustment required on the original 72 unit bankroll. 

Perhaps my comrades here can provide some positive input in this regard?  Thanks in advance for doing so!
 

Jesper

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2016, 03:54:05 AM »
I have thought a lot of betting one number only, and also about the RNG may all the time be without any bias.
I have seen it is not possible to win after a lot of spins (they can be many), the same goes for all flat bets.

The negative expection gears in soon or later. If we accept to play on line and RNG, we have an option play without any HA. This will turn out better, but still it can go month and heavy downdrown before a flat bet will turn back from minus to plus (it can take 1000000 and more spins). The time limit makes it impossible anyhow.

I have found a very slow progression gives the patient player best chance to win.
A number comes in clusters, if we rise the bet on a hit, the chance of be on the plus side in reasonable time is higher. It may work on a zero wheel as well.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2016, 03:57:36 AM by Jesper »
 
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nickmsi

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2016, 09:36:18 PM »
Hi Lone Wolf . . .

I have tested similar system where we would bet the first number to be spun.  We would bet that for
up to 37 spins or until a win then we would start a new cycle.

I have attached the tracker that I used.  Simply press Function Key F9 for another set of spins.

I also put this sheet into my bot and ran a 10,000 spin test and have attached the graph. This was flat betting.

Enjoy

Nick
 
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lone wolf

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2016, 01:51:29 AM »
Hi Lone Wolf . . .

I have tested similar system where we would bet the first number to be spun.  We would bet that for
up to 37 spins or until a win then we would start a new cycle.

I have attached the tracker that I used.  Simply press Function Key F9 for another set of spins.

I also put this sheet into my bot and ran a 10,000 spin test and have attached the graph. This was flat betting.

Enjoy

Nick

That graph looks good I must say.  You really need  to play with real money to satisfy yourself the concept works.  Start with the lowest denomination allowed.
 

lone wolf

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2016, 01:53:11 AM »
I have found a very slow progression gives the patient player best chance to win.
A number comes in clusters, if we rise the bet on a hit, the chance of be on the plus side in reasonable time is higher. It may work on a zero wheel as well.
Jesper, will you be kind enough and share the aforementioned progression?

Thanks in advance.
 
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Reyth

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2016, 02:37:14 AM »
Hi Lone Wolf . . .

I have tested similar system where we would bet the first number to be spun.  We would bet that for
up to 37 spins or until a win then we would start a new cycle.

I have attached the tracker that I used.  Simply press Function Key F9 for another set of spins.

I also put this sheet into my bot and ran a 10,000 spin test and have attached the graph. This was flat betting.

Enjoy

Nick

That graph looks good I must say.  You really need  to play with real money to satisfy yourself the concept works.  Start with the lowest denomination allowed.

For me its more that there is only 10000 trials.  Assuming true random and that logistics like table limits and actual bankroll are covered, only the number of trials matters and 10000 trials WILL hide phenomenon that otherwise simply will not show up.

Dobble would say that its not 10,000 trials or more alone that is necessary but multiple trials of short runs like 100-200 spins, maybe 10 strung together. 

I can understand both forms of testing where the Dobble method will show what you are likely to encounter before you would bust out or if you would expect to bust out sooner and the longer trials to simply reveal what is possible from the wheel so nothing remains hidden.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2016, 08:11:07 PM by Reyth »
 
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nickmsi

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2016, 12:07:09 PM »
Reyth is correct, 10,000 spins is not enough to show much.

The next 10,000 spin test could just as easily go south.

I am currently in midst of releasing my bot but when I get more time I can do longer tests and we will
see more realistic results.

Cheers

Nick
 
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Jesper

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2016, 06:28:33 AM »
I have found a very slow progression gives the patient player best chance to win.
A number comes in clusters, if we rise the bet on a hit, the chance of be on the plus side in reasonable time is higher. It may work on a zero wheel as well.
Jesper, will you be kind enough and share the aforementioned progression?

Thanks in advance.

I use the slowest possible. Positive progressions ad one on a hit until new high. I have had sleeps of hundreds of spins, and they use to wake up and come more frequent later. It is  similar to Oscars Grind, but on a single.

On a rng wheel with autospin we can play several 1000 spins in a day, and it is best suitable for that, as a session can be more than 1000 spins.

It can be so we must rise two if we are far behind, and not decide to stop.

 

Jesper

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Re: RNG Flat bet KISS (keep it simple stupid)
« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2016, 11:06:03 AM »
As an example I did some play at a zero table, betting one number (0) all the time.
Set a target of 100 units.

bet 1   
0 at spin 35   -0
0 at spin 36   35
0 at spin 71   37
0 at spin 134  10
bet 2
0 on spin 208  -68
bet 3
0 on spin 229 -23
bet 4
0 on spin 237  89
(100 is target bet 2 from here).
No hit before 274 spin.  15
bet 3
No hit before 288 spins -27.
bet 4 (now until hit)
0 on spin 363 -140
bet 5
0 on spin 369  -33
bet 6
0 on spin 371   171
Target reached!

10 hits in 371 spins is about expected (little less)..

Won 171 units.

 
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