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Author Topic: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?  (Read 17083 times)

Jake007

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Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« on: April 25, 2014, 01:30:31 AM »
I just wanted to ask this question: What is the longest you have seen?

In my hello post a day or two ago I ran an 18 level progression which turned out not to be enough and i suffered a big loss. In the past two days Ive been looking for ways to reduce my risk and help protect my bankroll.

Im now running a 13 level progression and begin betting after the 8th dozens miss in a row. This gives me at least 21 chances. Anything longer than that and it becomes a grind. Ive ran my numbers many different ways over on the loothog calculators site and I seem to do pretty good. I have a 2000 credit bankroll with a goal of 100 credits. I can get this done fairly quickly... say about 20 minutes. Ive done tests going as far out as 6 months (100 credits/day) and all seems to be pretty good so long as I stop if my bankroll ever dips below a comfortable level (500 credits).


 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2014, 09:38:06 AM »
12 Random numbers have the same feature as a dozen. On 36 spins grosso modo 12 numbers has not fallen. This is a random number dozen. Conclusion a dozen of 12 consecutive numbers has the chance. This is a dangerous long losing streak.  How many of these dozens there are for a 36 event the statisticians can compute it.
 

doftorul

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2014, 03:54:08 PM »
Only played this online at Uni*** and 88* and tried for 2 games/sessions x 30 bets each, maybe not a great sample, however, games #1 and #2 were at Uni*** and #3 and #4 were at 8**:
In order to start a game i have waited for 4 consecutive loses. Each game was bet on the 1st dozen. There were roughly 30 - 40 minutes pause between the games:

0=lose, x=win

Game #1
1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |7 |8 |9 |10 |11 |12 |13 |14 |15 |16 |17 |18 |19 |20 |21 |22 |23 |24 |25 |26 |27 |28 |29 |30
0 |x |x  |0 |x |x |0 |0 |0 | x   | 0 | 0  | 0   | 0 | x   | x   | 0 | x  | 0  | 0  | x   | 0  | x  | 0  | x  | 0  | 0  | x  |  x | 0

Game #2
1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |7 |8 |9 |10 |11 |12 |13 |14 |15 |16 |17 |18 |19 |20 |21 |22 |23 |24 |25 |26 |27 |28 |29 |30
x |0 |0  |0 |0 |x |0 |0 |0 | x   | 0 | 0  | x  | 0  | 0  | x  | 0  | 0  | 0  | x   | x  | 0  | 0  | 0  | x  | 0  | x   | x  |  x | 0

Game #3
1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |7 |8 |9 |10 |11 |12 |13 |14 |15 |16 |17 |18 |19 |20 |21 |22 |23 |24 |25 |26 |27 |28 |29 |30
0 |0 |0 |0 |0 |x |0 |0 |0 | 0  | x  | 0  | 0   | 0 |  0  | 0   | 0 | x  | x  | 0  | x   | 0  | 0  | 0  | x  | 0  | 0  | 0  |  x | 0

Game #4
1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |7 |8 |9 |10 |11 |12 |13 |14 |15 |16 |17 |18 |19 |20 |21 |22 |23 |24 |25 |26 |27 |28 |29 |30
x |0 | x |x |0 |x |0 |0 |x  | x  | 0 | 0  | 0  | 0  | 0   | 0  | x  | 0  | 0  | 0  | x  | 0  | x  | 0  | x  | 0  | 0   | 0  |  x | 0

Again, the sample is small and may not help in any way, but what strikes me is the 29th and 30th bet on all the 4 games being so similar.
The bet was not progressive, i used no system whatsoever, jut bet 2 units everytime on the 1st dozen.

Don't shoot me, i'm trying to learn DISCIPLINE and get away from the table at the self-imposed time /bet # or specific target before i go and play some advanced systems / strategies.
 

kav

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2014, 06:05:57 PM »
Jale007,
What is the longest losing streak when betting on one or two dozens?

doftrul,
In what way are the four games similar in the 29th and 30th bet?
 

palestis

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2014, 10:50:47 PM »
I have played the dozens system extensively for a long time. That is only 1 dozen that has failed to show up.
The longest  streak on 1 missing dozen was 28 spins, but that was very very rare and I only saw it 2 times in 6 months. Even to see 1 dozen missing 25 consecutive spins is rare and you might have to wait a long time to witness that. However for 16 spins, it does happen and you can see it 2-3 times in an 8 hour period of observing various tables. The proper way to play this system is to wait until a dozen or column is missing for about 10-12 spins and then play that dozen only 3 or maybe 4 times, Then stop, because the trend might continue and the progression will wipe your bankroll. Then wait for the same conditions in the next round and play it again. it is very unlikely that a dozen missing  for 12 spins will go on to be missing for more that 16 spins in 2 consecutive situations.
Now 12 numbers can be missing easily for 40 spins, in fact you can see that very often if you record spun numbers. And its also easy for 12 #'s to be missing for 50 spins. But a dozen will never exceed missing 30 spins. Maybe once in 2 years of  observing numbers. This is because it has to defy 2 statistics. One as 12 random missing numbers and the second 12 numbers that belong in the same group.
To observe all the BMW's passing by in an hour, does not yield the same results, as observing all the BMW's that also white.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2014, 03:54:54 PM by palestis »
 

Jake007

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2014, 07:23:11 PM »
Very interesting info Palestis, thanks.

I have been playing with several systems lately and the one that appears best for me is playing dozens.

Here is an example...

http://www.loothog.com/Systems/SteadyDozen.php

-bankroll $2000
-profit target $100
-max spin 5000
-use a 13 step bet progression starting at $2
-wait for 8 losses in a row

This gives a max of 21 spread (misses) and if I dont win I was not meant to win. I have done this for months and have done quite well (although playing other systems has leveled my winnings). I have seen 23 misses and 26 misses come up a couple times. Since I cap my progression at 13 I dont "lose it all".

In my mind there has to be a cherry sweet spot, to say, an ideal bet situation...

#1 - the bet amount determined by bankroll
#2 - on when to start betting (after how many misses)
#3 - when to stop the bet progression
#4 - the progression itself

Soon, I believe after much calculations I will perfect this method.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2014, 07:25:03 PM by Jake007 »
 

palestis

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2014, 08:20:34 PM »
Very interesting info Palestis, thanks.

I have been playing with several systems lately and the one that appears best for me is playing dozens.

From what I understand you are betting just 1 dozen, and you start a 13 step progression after 8 misses (which I take it to mean VIRTUAL LOSS). I have to ask you this. Do you pick one dozen randomly and wait not to show up for 8 spins and then start betting, or you look at roulette boards and pick a roulette that shows an already missing dozen 8 spins in a row? The first is more time consuming, and in the second case you have to monitor several tables until you see a dozen missing 8 times.
Regardless, it sounds like a solid system, because it is very unlikely that 1 dozen will go missing for more than 21 consecutive spins.
Palestis
 

Jake007

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2014, 09:45:04 PM »
From what I understand you are betting just 1 dozen, and you start a 13 step progression after 8 misses (which I take it to mean VIRTUAL LOSS). I have to ask you this. Do you pick one dozen randomly and wait not to show up for 8 spins and then start betting, or you look at roulette boards and pick a roulette that shows an already missing dozen 8 spins in a row?

I wait until a dozen does not get hit for 8 times, then I begin betting on it. Actually, I could have two consecutive dozens I am betting on going at the same time, but it doesnt happen often. So for my strategy I wait for any dozen and then begin betting after 8 misses.

I have a piece of blank paper in front of me and I record which dozen is hit. 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

12213123332322 (now I start betting on the 1st dozen) 23331 (win)

I like this system, although it is a bit manual, it has worked for me.
 

Jake007

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2014, 09:55:45 PM »
#1 - the bet amount determined by bankroll
#2 - on when to start betting (after how many misses)
#3 - when to stop the bet progression
#4 - the progression itself

These variables are key elements in my system.

#1 - I use $2000, or 2000 points or 2000 credits as my bankroll. If I had infinite bankroll my starting progression would be much higher. Using 2000 credits as my bankroll, my beginning bet is 2 credits.

#2 - When to start betting? After 5 misses? After 15 misses? This is also key. In my piles of hand written 1,2, and 3 all over each paper... long strings of misses do not happen often. Waiting for 15 misses in a row would really be a waste of time, although definitely much safer. Begin betting after 2 or 3 losses means you need to have a much longer streak of progression. In the games I play, I cannot make fraction bets, so I must start with at least 1 credit bet.

#3 - I believe ending the progression is important otherwise you can lose your bankroll. As I have said I have seen dozens go to the 26th time (miss in a row). And in computer models it has gone 30 times.

#4 - What is the best progression? Doubling does not work since you must go 13 progressions. You would risk your entire bankroll if you doubled each progression and I am not willing to risk it like that. I just want a steady income. And that is where I am right now is developing the best progression to use.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2014, 10:02:45 PM by Jake007 »
 

palestis

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2014, 11:51:27 PM »


Quote
I wait until a dozen does not get hit for 8 times, then I begin betting on it. Actually, I could have two consecutive dozens I am betting on going at the same time, but it doesnt happen often. So for my strategy I wait for any dozen and then begin betting after 8 misses.

I have a piece of blank paper in front of me and I record which dozen is hit. 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

12213123332322 (now I start betting on the 1st dozen) 23331 (win)

I like this system, although it is a bit manual, it has worked for me.

That's what I thought you were doing.
I totally agree with a system like that. It is based on the premise that when a dozen is missing 8 spins, it is very unlikely that it will continue missing beyond 21 spins. Maybe on rare occasions, but I can reassure you that it won't happen frequently (going from 8 to 21)
. As far as progression, it's only 12 numbers so you don't need to double each time. The progression is a matter of personal choice.
. Do you want profit at any point you hit it during the next 13 spins?
. Would you settle for getting all or most your money back if you pass 8 progressions and is getting too risky to continue all the way to 13?
Also, you have to figure out how many sessions (cycles) you would need to recover the  loss of 13  progressions, if it ever came to that.
You said you've seen 26 spins where a dozen is missing in live and 30 in computer simulation. I'm sure that's the ultimate limit and chances are you are not going to run into such scenario any time soon. I've seen it missing 28 times in live roulette, but I can count in my fingers the times that I have seen that, in hundreds of thousands of spins and many years of observation.

I play the same system when I observe a dozen going missing from 8- 10 spins, but I use only 4 progressions. The reason is to save money by avoiding the risk of going too far. If I don't catch it this time, I will in the next cycle. And if not in the 3rd cycle. I just can't see a dozen missing 8 spins and then go on to be missing for 15 spins in 3 consecutive  situations.

Right now I'm checking a system with 1 dozen (or column), and looks very promising.
I pick a dozen randomly, 1 or 2 or 3 and pretend that I'm going to bet on it for so many spins. And see what happens. To my surprise it's not long before it shows up. Usually within the next 5 spins. I wish I had a simulation program where I can check how many spins does it take to hit the randomly chosen dozen. Once I know the average maximum number of spins that it takes before I hit it, then I can negotiate the number of VIRTUAL LOSSES(no money lost), with the number of actual money bets.
If for example I found that a randomly chosen dozen can go up to 10 spins before it shows up, I can let it ride for 5 spins without showing up and then bet the next 5 spins with an appropriate progression. But so far it looks like it shows up in less than 10 spins. Many times within 5.
But it will take many observations before I can come up with maximum limits.
The same idea can apply in picking B or R randomly, but I don't like the idea of running into expensive progressions too fast.

 

Jake007

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2014, 05:24:21 PM »
. Do you want profit at any point you hit it during the next 13 spins?
. Would you settle for getting all or most your money back if you pass 8 progressions and is getting too risky to continue all the way to 13?


Of course every progression I expect profit.

My research has me looking far in depth as to best progressions, best beginning bet amounts, etc. I spend far more hours shaping my personal methods than I do actually gambling real money. I build a theory and I run it on many simulations. Short term, long term, and so on. If my methods prove successful throughout all scenarios, I have a good method and I begin real betting.

Unfortunately for me, I get easily caught up in new methods that crash my bank account fast. I spend so much time developing my own methods and then I play a new method I read about online without any research at all. STUPID! Haha! But it is fun and Im pushing hard now to minimize risk. I come from the stock market where the #1 rule is "dont lose money". With roulette I treated it as a game, now instead, I treat it as an investment with the rule of "dont lose money". In stock market you have stop losses if a stock drops too much. In roulette I have to do the same. If a system isnt working, stop. Or better yet, ut a cap or limit on progression betting to protect bankroll.

I admit to loving the random theories on the board here. But for me, it is not very traceable or trackable. It adds so much question marks it makes it incredibly difficult to formulate any response to it. I cannot track it, therefore I cannot make changes for the better. Afterall, its random!
 

palestis

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2014, 01:27:15 AM »
Quote

My research has me looking far in depth as to best progressions, best beginning bet amounts, etc. I spend far more hours shaping my personal methods than I do actually gambling real money. I build a theory and I run it on many simulations. Short term, long term, and so on. If my methods prove successful throughout all scenarios, I have a good method and I begin real betting.

That's the right thing to do. LONG TERM TESTING BEFORE REAL BETS.
That's exactly what I do. After I conceive a system that looks promising, I test it for thousands of spins, just to see how it works and also to see what can happen if in rare occasions it didn't work. I just prefer to limit the progressions, because I played systems before that had 98% success rate, but when I run into the 2% exception (which is rare, but it will happen when you play something all the time), I lost big time compared to the individual amounts I was winning when I was in the 98% range. There should be a balance between the number of progressions and potential loss if the system fell into the rare exception. Meaning that the money lost should be recovered relatively soon when the system is back to the way is supposed to work.
But the missing dozen is definitely an A+ system.
Don't you think that a double street bet ( 6 numbers), is similar to the dozen, with the exception that the wait is longer for virtual losses (like maybe 18 spins), and the progression can be longer too (maybe 25), since there are only 6 numbers to deal with. Or maybe it is easier to see a dozen missing 8 times, than to see a double street missing 16 times?
Do you play online in the US?  because I don't think there is an online casino that accepts US players.
Palestis
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2014, 10:02:09 AM »
All systems have the same feature. The House Edge for AR 5.3 and for the FR 1.35 to 2.7 are unbeatable. Long run test of systems end always with this los percentage.
My study has teach me the difference between nano- and macrosessions.Small samples of every chance are suitable for strategies.
For developing strategies , first you must understand the features of small samples.
In another topic Itry to explain analyse programs for several chances. These programs are free available for really interested members.
 

palestis

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2014, 07:23:34 AM »
All systems have the same feature. The House Edge for AR 5.3 and for the FR 1.35 to 2.7 are unbeatable. Long run test of systems end always with this los percentage.
My study has teach me the difference between nano- and macrosessions.Small samples of every chance are suitable for strategies.
For developing strategies , first you must understand the features of small samples.
In another topic Itry to explain analyse programs for several chances. These programs are free available for really interested members.

To make things clear, the long term observation is done for no reason other than reassurance. For example how do we know that the maximum number of spins a dozen can be missing is about 28 spins?. We can't determine that from a small sample. How do we know that observing 16 consecutive EC's is extremely rare? How do we know that 10 number can be sleeping for about 70 spins maximum? At some point we had to observe thousands of spins to come up with a reliable figure. Beyond that, long term data are useless for a system you want to play now. It's during the short term that we know the roulette defies textbook probabilities as if it had a mind of its own. And in that short term you can take advantage of it and win.
 

Real

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Re: Longest Losing Streak on Dozens?
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2014, 03:10:33 PM »
[q]And in that short term you can take advantage of it and win.-Palestis [/q]

Short term + short term + short term eventually = long term.  As you guys gain experience, you'll learn just how wrong you really are.

-Real