Author Topic: The value of Bankroll and... Gamblers Fallacy(?)  (Read 13373 times)

dobbelsteen

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The value of Bankroll and... Gamblers Fallacy(?)
« on: April 21, 2014, 09:43:43 AM »
The value of the Bankroll.
With much interest, I have read this paper. I play for more than 35 years as well in the real casino as on internet. As an experience player, I can agree with the content. Roulette is not a game to become rich. Just like any other game, you can play it for fun. Your bankroll is no evidence you beat the roulette.
If I play, I do not think in dollars, pounds or euros. I play with jetons, chips, credits or units. Using my mind, I try to beat the roulette, not the House Edge.
Every serious player has a plan. The casino visitor, who comes only for fun and entertaining, plays mostly on his intuition. There are several methods to play roulette. My plan or strategy is based on statistic knowledge of random rows.
The results of a chance have the feature of a pendulum. The number of red and black is seldom equal. In small (nano) samples, it happens more than in large (macro) samples. For a player are the features of a small sample very important. The simulation of random rows in excel are very suitable to discover these features. A player is only interested in the features of small samples.
Nobody can predict the result of a spin. The player expects a hit in the next coming spins. For example after six red, he expects black falls in the next 6 spins. As the difference between red and black is more than 15, he expects more black results in the next 10 spins. This principle can be used for all the random rows of the different chances. The ECs, the dozens and columns, the streets and double streets are most suitable for strategies.
There is a large difference between a system and a strategy. One of the most important rules of a strategy is, the roulette has to spin and the player may bet.
Many systems have well-known names of the designers. The systems have also very particular betting schemes. Systems have no stop-loss keys. This is the weakness of systems. With strategies, you can spread the risk. Every session stands in itself.
Latron I shall give a analise of Th Kavourac system in roulette systems
« Last Edit: April 27, 2014, 07:57:12 PM by kav »


 

Real

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2014, 03:23:04 PM »
Quote
For example after six red, he expects black falls in the next 6 spins. As the difference between red and black is more than 15, he expects more black results in the next 10 spins. This principle can be used for all the random rows of the different chances. The ECs, the dozens and columns, the streets and double streets are most suitable for strategies.- Dobbelsteen

I'm sorry, but what you've just described is the gambler's fallacy.

"The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future; likewise, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players." -Wiki

-Real
« Last Edit: April 22, 2014, 03:24:43 PM by Real »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2014, 01:43:57 PM »
My analise programs tell something else. Every chance has the feature of a pendulum. The pendulum will never come to rest.
I give  the diagrams for the EC in the attachment.

The gambler`s falancy is not a certainty. Particular small sessions do not make a random sequence together.!!
« Last Edit: April 23, 2014, 01:47:19 PM by dobbelsteen »
 

Real

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2014, 02:08:50 PM »
No, you're definitely trapped in the gambler's fallacy.

Please take the time to read more on it and basic probability.

It is not uncommon for new players to fall prey to it.

"The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future; likewise, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature).


« Last Edit: April 23, 2014, 02:13:06 PM by Real »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2014, 08:05:43 PM »
I agree, newbies fall in the trap of the Gambler`s Falancy. A Newbie can learn me not much about all the in and outs of the roulette. I play more than 35 years roulette in a real casino. Since we have PCs I simulate systems and study the random rows. My knowledge is based on my experience.

I think you did not open the attachment.You did not comment the diagram and my conclusion.
 

Real

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2014, 10:16:32 PM »
The diagram doesn't make any sense.  I don't know what it's supposed to be showing.

It's not possible to take advantage of any imbalance in the red/black because you have no way of knowing whether a trend is likely to continue or end based on your observation of the imbalance.  This is because each spin is an independent trial.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2014, 08:33:54 AM »
Real I advice you to play soccer, bridge or chess.From you we cannot expect serious comment.Your comment is on the level of student and teacher.If you can not read a diagram and understand the importence of statistic and mathimatical go back to school.
 

Real

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2014, 08:40:14 AM »
Soccer, bridge, and chess have nothing to do with roulette.

What are you trying to demonstrate with your graph?  Is it that black sometimes hits more than red, or that red sometimes hits more than black?  So what?

 Please explain why what you're doing is not part of the gambler's fallacy.

When you talk about imbalances, you're implying that the pendulum should swing the other way to compensate.  This is, by definition, the gambler's fallacy.

-Real

« Last Edit: April 24, 2014, 12:30:06 PM by Real »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2014, 03:55:51 PM »
 In this case the diagram shows the swing between the numbers High and Low. Statistic rules does not lie. If a player thinks, he can predict the result of a spin after a certain event, he falls in the trap of Gamblers fallacy.
 

Real

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2014, 04:46:39 PM »
Now you're back tracking, and admitting that you can't win using your random rows?

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2014, 09:11:38 AM »
I do not agree. You must read the comment better. Your conclusion is false.
 

palestis

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2014, 11:50:06 PM »
For REAL:
It seems like you copied the definition from wiki about gambler's fallacy and keep repeating it, as if that's the standard of comparison everything has to abide by. I'm not sure if you have any experience on roulette. However, take the time and study numbers that have resulted from a specific roulette, from the time it opens till the time it closes. And you will be amazed with what you will discover. Statistics is such a powerful force, nothing on this earth can avoid it including the game of roulette. The trick is knowing how to use it and when is the right time to apply its principles.
1.Did you ever wonder y you never see 30 consecutive REDS, or if you want to see 18 REDS in a row you might have to stick around a roulette for 3 days 24/7 and if you are lucky you might see it once.
2. Did you ever wonder y you will NEVER see 10 numbers  missing for 100 spins?
3. or did you ever wonder y in 37 spins you will never see 37 different numbers? And if you study it long enough you will find out that on the average in 37 spins you will only see about 25 unique numbers, the rest will be repeats. There is a word for that phenomena and many others in roulette and its called statistical necessity. Nobody can overcome it and certainly roulette is TOO WEAK to avoid it
 

Real

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2014, 02:30:26 AM »
Quote
1.Did you ever wonder y you never see 30 consecutive REDS, or if you want to see 18 REDS in a row you might have to stick around a roulette for 3 days 24/7 and if you are lucky you might see it once.

Palestis, (Alababaha)

Let's take this one question at a time.  For starters, I've never seen 30 in a row, but I have seen 26 in a row at the Taj Mahal, Atlantic City, in about 2007

Think about it like this: You walk up to a roulette table and decide to watch the next 30 spins.  Which of the following patterns is the most likely to occur?  Which is the least likely occur?  Why?  How many possible patterns can occur?

1. RBRBRBRBRBRRRRBRBRBBRBRBBBRRRB

2. RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

3. RRRRBRBRRRRRBRBRRRBBBBBBRRRBRB

-Real

 

palestis

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2014, 10:16:28 AM »
There you go Real:
You've never seen 30 REDS or BLACK in a row, you've seen 26. And that was one time only in 2007. Hopefully you were there present and witnessed first hand all reds going up to 26, rather than just walking by the table, seeing say 16 and then you waited and saw another 10. Because score boards are notorious to miss some numbers. But anyway I accept your observation, because I was told by a retired long time dealer, that once in his lifetime he spun 25 blacks. ONE TIME IN HIS SPINNING LIFETIME. Same dealer told me that 1 dozen went missing for 35 consecutive spins. ONE TIME ONLY. In 25 rears. In my observations thru the years I have seen about 20 EC's in a row. Many times when I saw a lot of them spinning up , I was told by players in that table that the score board missed to record a number and the picture that I saw wasn't true. And believe me I observe and record #'s like a hawk (see pic.).
To answer your question about the series you presented me, it's equally likely to see any of the 3 scenarios you presented.
Y? Because you specified in ADVANCE what the series will look like. It's like saying that when I stand in a street corner, I will see 3 chevys,  then 2 fords, then 4 Toyotas, then 3 lincolns,  then 4 mazdas driving by . This is as rare to happen as if I specified in advance that I' m expecting  to see all first 16 cars to be FORDS.
There is a difference between specifying in advance what you expect to see, and what you see as result after in happened.
ALL I'M SAYING IS that if roulette numbers were totally random, then you should be able to see 26 REDS in a row, a lot more frequently than only one time in 2007. Like 5 or more times a day. Or 2 SAME DOZENS spinning up 50 times in a row. WHAT IS IT THAT prevents us from seeing that? OR seeing the other 2 series you presented in the exact order you specified. More specifically y when you see a ratio of 70%-28% RED to BLACK (if you are lucky to see it) for 50 spins, almost always the BLACKS from that point on, will appear a lot more frequently than their rightful 50% chance? Because in the short run statistics are being ignored in roulette as if she had a mind of her own.
There is a point however, after which  things start falling into place. Statistically. Only long time observation and numbers recording  and processing can pinpoint what that point is. Beyond which, the roulette can no longer continue its madness.

 

Cardplayer

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Re: The value of the Bankroll
« Reply #14 on: April 27, 2014, 11:01:39 AM »
Dear Dobbelsteen and Palestis,

If I understand correctly there is statistical necessity in the game of Roulette. My question is how to appy that knowledge into practice? Although there is a statistical necessity we also have to deal we the table maximum in case we want tot use a betprogression. But maybe we can use this statiscal necessity for only flatbetting which will result in a profit?
Let's say we want a minimum profit of just one unit per session (of course a session can consist of as many of spins which is necessary to reach a profit of just one unit). Can you please explain how to play such a session?

Thanks for your answer!

Cardplayer