Author Topic: Cut Point Day by Day  (Read 1628 times)

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random

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Cut Point Day by Day
« on: July 06, 2016, 11:37:37 PM »
I will present my everyday testing here...

Code: [Select] [nofollow]
01/06/2016 random.org

W
LWW
W
LLWLWW
W
W
LLWLWW
LWLWW
W
LWW
LLWW
W
LLWW
LLWW
LWLLLWW
W
LLWW
LWLLWLLWLWLWW
LWW
LWW
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 12:11:09 AM by random »


 
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Reyth

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2016, 09:25:46 AM »
Aha, so this is Carsch...
 

random

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2016, 10:42:58 AM »
Aha, so this is Carsch...

Any sugestions on money management or progression?
 

Reyth

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2016, 11:04:01 AM »
Well, can you post worst sequences?  I could make a ecart calculator that would bet based on specific criteria and generate the worst sequences and present them in a win loss registry but I was wondering if you have any already made?

We are looking for significant improvement over an expected 25 consecutive losses in a row...

Without any betting criteria (trigger) the worst draw down without two wins is 55; evidenced here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=476.msg5469#msg5469

So we are also looking for significant improvement over 55 consecutive progression steps before the debt is cleared...

Hopefully your ecart system will act as a buffer, eliminating a significant number of consecutive misses so that your existing progression will cover the rest.  How many total progression steps are you currently using?

I offer an extension to the standard Carsch Star, here:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=476.msg5440#msg5440

I think we need 6 recovery levels if we leave the overall structure as it is.  If we could design 6 levels it would be grail.

BUT since you have an ecart system, we shouldn't need all 6 levels to grail it but the question is how much of an improvement do we actually gain?



secret theory, some joker is going to come in here and tell us about HE and GF...
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 11:25:48 AM by Reyth »
 

random

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2016, 11:24:39 AM »

Quote
Without any betting criteria (trigger) the worst draw down without two wins is 55;

The criteria here, and the importance of the Cut Point Method is that we do not blindly chase regression. This is about trending. We observe the unfolding and get in after correction starts to manifest, as the imbalance can continue to grow.
In the examples i usually write indication + tendency to illustrate entry points. As for exit points i have been using two wins in a row or a single win.

Quote
Well, can you post worst sequences?  I could make a ecart calculator that would bet based on specific criteria and generate the worst sequences and present them in a win loss registry but I was wondering if you have any already made?

I honestly remember worst sequence so far as being 4 Losses in a row. As for the programing, i have only tried ruby language a few years ago but incipiently. I build the trackers in excel now. It would be very welcome if you could help.

Quote
BUT since you have an ecart system, we shouldn't need all 6 levels to grail it but the question is how much of an improvement do we actually gain?
It needs testing, only time would tell.

Quote
secret theory, some joker is going to come in here and tell us about HE and GF...
no problem with GF as this is a trending method and if anyone can show me something better with better results i would appreciate.
As for HE, one can use betvoyager online casino with no house edge rng. (although 10% commission on net winnings).
=)

Thank you for the attention

« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 11:34:29 AM by random »
 

Reyth

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2016, 11:32:50 AM »

Quote
Without any betting criteria (trigger) the worst draw down without two wins is 55;

The criteria here, and the importance of the Cut Point Method is that we do not blindly chase regression.

Yes, well regardless of the fact that you only bet at specific times, the same worst loss streak applies EXCEPT for the advantage that is gained by your betting criteria (trigger).

If your worst loss is only 4 its instant grail; even if it was eight times that amount it would be instant grail but I suspect that your 4 figure is for the one win in a row method.

If I program a calculator, it would work like this:

1) Spin until an EC shows 3.0 STD
2) Bet Carsch Star until the debt is cleared
3) Log the max draw down and output 
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 01:52:49 PM by Reyth »
 

random

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2016, 01:46:09 PM »
07/07/2016 Random.org

Code: [Select] [nofollow]
LH_Series2VsSeriesOf4orMore
lww
llllwlwlww
w
w
w
——
LH_SinglesVsSeriesOf3orMore
w
w
w
lwlwlwlwllww
w
w
—-
LH_Series2VsLarger
lww
 
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 01:47:51 PM by random »
 

Reyth

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2016, 01:54:20 PM »
Wow nice!  Why did you switch between the 3 methods?  Is there any reason for the timing of the switches?
 

random

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2016, 02:23:08 PM »
i believe i didn't understand when you first asked that. but know i did. =)

For each EC i built until now 13 trackers for 13 different playing models which as you know, i disclosed in another thread http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1029.0.
Some need more data to find suitable ecart 3.0 than others. So i run all at the same time for a single EC, in this case Low/High. The strings of LW i post here are one for each different ecart found, only this time i added the playing model before.
So every ecart found, disregarding the playing model, is not left behind. There is no hit and run scheme. In the case only those 3 playing models offered the opportunity.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 02:26:34 PM by random »
 

Sputnik

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2016, 03:34:19 PM »
Ok i will write this in the open forum once.
Then the following parts i will discuss in the private section.

And i not sure random use the optimal march which i also will write about.

If you have 3.0 STDS window as your trigger with overrepresented events and underrepresented events.
Then after several million simulations and the World record is 5.49 and 5.59 STDS.

That is a total of 22 trails.
This means no matter how many million simulations you do, so will the underrepresended event show at least once or several times within the next 22 trails.

Then is just a question how you deal with the situation.
You can use a benchmark as 3.5 STDS.
You can split 7 contra 1 and 7 contra 1 and 7 contra 1 to cover the situation.
5.33 STDS
After each single underrepresented event you get a indication and regression signal.

There is many options and losing has the same probability as winning the LOTTO.

We can measuring statistics and variance and probability and define the worst and extreme.

But no one play this way using 10 Euro units as it would not be Worth it.
You have to divide the extreme and worst with risk management and look at the worst and extreme to see how you would attack susch situation with 100 Euro units and hedge betting zero with La Partage rule.

That is a fully proffesional way to tackle the even Money bets.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 03:47:54 PM by Sputnik »
 
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random

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2016, 02:06:21 AM »
10/07/2013 RANDOM.ORG 1024spins
Singles Vs Series 3.0STD

LLWLWW
W
W
——
Series of 2 Vs Series of 3 or more 3.0STD

W
W
LLWW
W
W
——
Series of 3 Vs Series of 4 or more 3.0STD

W
——
Isolated Singles Vs Series of Singles 3.0STD

X
——
Series of 2 Singles Vs Series of 3 Singles or more 3.0STD

X
——

************INFAMOUS MODELS
-Singles Vs Series of 3 or more 3.5STD

LWW
W
W
W
W
LLLWLWLWW
W
W
W
LLLWLWLLLWLWLLLWLWW
——
Series of 2 Vs Series of 4 or more 3.5STD
LWW
W
W
W
LWLLWW
LWW
LLLWLLWW
——
Isolated Singles Vs Series of 3 Singles or more 3.5STD

W
——
Series of 2 Singles Vs Series of 4 Singles or more 3.5STD

X.
—-
 
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random

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Re: Cut Point Day by Day
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2016, 12:15:21 PM »
I test my own algorithm to catch correction.
1024 Spins from Random.org, pre-generated randomization 13/07/2016.
I test 12 groups of 18 vs 18 numbers using 3double-streets for each side.
The playing model is based on Cut Point Method (explored in private section of this forum)
Test is flat-bet until +1 or -3
Base Unit is 3 chips so i don't bother OE and RB being accounted differently.

Judge for yourself and think if you remember getting this kind of LW registry based on any other bet selection.

I can make proof of the results.

W
LWW
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W
W
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LWLLWLWLWWW
W
LWW
W
LWW
W
LLWWW
LLL
LWW
W
LWW
W
LWLLL
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
LWLWW
W
W
W
LWW
W
LWW
« Last Edit: July 13, 2016, 12:18:59 PM by random »
 
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