Author Topic: Probability question  (Read 2098 times)

Dane

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 291
  • Thanked: 145 times
  • Gender: Male
Probability question
« on: July 06, 2016, 06:52:21 AM »
Keeping track of performing numbers in area 1-18 and especially their distribution inside the three well known double streets or six lines 1-6, 7-12 and 13-18.
In one of these double streets exactly four numbers have JUST turned up. Fewer numbers have appeared in each of the two other mentioned double streets.

This double street with four appeared numbers MAY COME WITH A FIFTH NUMBER BEFORE I HAVE REGISTREDED A FOUTH NUMBER IN ANY OF THE TWO OTHER DOUBLE STREETS.
Could you please tell me what the chances are?



 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: Probability question
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2016, 07:22:19 AM »
The problem with this illustration is that you only say "fewer numbers have appeared in the other double streets" -- therefore do you want the chances for 1,2,3 appearances all?
 

Bayes

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 688
  • Thanked: 547 times
  • roulettician.com
Re: Probability question
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2016, 07:41:34 AM »
No matter how many numbers have hit in a particular double street, the probability of another hit is 6/37, but  not sure if this answers your question.
 

Dane

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 291
  • Thanked: 145 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Probability question
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2016, 07:49:25 AM »
Hi Reyth,
You never know the number of the mentioned "fewer numbers" on beforehand!
It differs from test to test.  A number of times I have wagered the two mentioned missing numbers ;and I often got a  STRAIGHT UP hit BEFORE any of the TWO other double streets had apperead with four different numbers (measured from the start). I am aware that my question is rather complex and that it may even require simulations and knowledge beyond my capacity.

I´ll be glad if you are able to tell me the probability (one probability) for a hit under the given circumstances as illustrated  :)  HOW often can I expect to get a hit?
« Last Edit: July 06, 2016, 07:51:50 AM by Dane »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: Probability question
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2016, 07:52:01 AM »
I think he is requesting info regarding an aggregate; i.e. if I have a sequence where a double street has repeated 4 times, and the two other double streets (in Low) have appeared only [1,2 or 3?] times, what are the chances that this double street will appear a 5th time before the other double streets hit 4 times.  I would simply answer this question by creating this scenario in the random flow millions of times and counting how many times the 5th hit occurs versus the times it misses.

Ok, I think this has answered my question.  He doesn't care how many times the other double streets have hit, he only cares that a double street in Low has repeated 4 times.

Ok I get it.  This is easy to program and track.
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: Probability question
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2016, 07:57:04 AM »
Ok so let me clarify, you want a clean slate once you get 4 hits in a row in a single double street right?

So it will be 1-7 hits 4 times like:

1 7 2 6

Now you want to know what are the chances of getting a number between 1 and 7 before you get 4 numbers that are between 8 and 18?

You don't care about 0 or numbers larger than 18, right?
 

Dane

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 291
  • Thanked: 145 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Probability question
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2016, 07:58:00 AM »
You are PARTLY right, Reyth. But the question is NOT how many times a certain double street has appeared or if it has appeared in a sequence or not. Rather it is a question of the number of DIFFERENT NUMBERS IN IT have appeared.
An example: Number 1, 2, 3 and  4 have have appeared. 5 and 6 have not.
THE   OTHER TWO DOUBLE STREETS (7-12 and 13-18) have each come with less numbers. Less than four.

SO I START BETTING 5 and 6 and hope to get a hit BEFORE any of the two other mentioned double streets have appeared with four numbers measured from the start.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2016, 08:11:57 AM by Dane »
 

Bayes

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 688
  • Thanked: 547 times
  • roulettician.com
Re: Probability question
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2016, 07:59:13 AM »
At the risk of repeating myself, no matter what the "circumstances" are surrounding the event, the chance of the DS in question hitting is 6/37. I can't see any other way of interpreting Dane's question.

Unless he's looking for the sequential probability of 5 hits in a row on the same DS?
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: Probability question
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2016, 08:00:03 AM »
Ok so sequences like:

1 1 2 6

1 7 2 2

7 6 1 1

don't count, they have to be 4 unique numbers within a single double street?
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: Probability question
« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2016, 08:05:08 AM »
At the risk of repeating myself, no matter what the "circumstances" are surrounding the event, the chance of the DS in question hitting is 6/37. I can't see any other way of interpreting Dane's question.

Unless he's looking for the sequential probability of 5 hits in a row on the same DS?

The aggregate sequence he is illustrating has its own features just like a straight streak does.

The way I think about it is that a straight streak is the wheel narrowing on a single number which is the smallest region possible. 

The difference with a single DS is that it has focused on the very small region of 6 numbers -- obviously this is more common but it is rare when considered against the much larger region of the rest of the board.

They are both streaks in their own right.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2016, 08:16:20 AM by Reyth »
 

Dane

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 291
  • Thanked: 145 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Probability question
« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2016, 08:06:02 AM »
At the risk of repeating myself, no matter what the "circumstances" are surrounding the event, the chance of the DS in question hitting is 6/37. I can't see any other way of interpreting Dane's question.

Unless he's looking for the sequential probability of 5 hits in a row on the same DS?

Hi again Bayes; PLEASE read reply # 6; and you may realize that it is far more complex!
Thanks.
 

Bayes

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 688
  • Thanked: 547 times
  • roulettician.com
Re: Probability question
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2016, 08:06:31 AM »
The question is ambiguous and can't be answered until clarified. Sorry if I'm coming across as tetchy but this is one of my pet peeves.  :-X
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: Probability question
« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2016, 08:09:24 AM »
You are PARTLY right, Reyth. But the question is NOT how many times a certain double street has appeared or if it has appeared in a sequence or not. Rather it is a question of the number of DIFFERENT NUMBERS IN IT have appeared.
An example: Number 1, 2, 3 and  4 have have appeared. 5 and 6 have not.
THE   OTHER TWO DOUBLE STREETS (7-12 and 13-18) have each come with less numbers. Leass than four.

SO I START BETTING 5 and 6 and hope to get a hit BEFORE any of the two other mentioned double streets have appeared with four numbers measured from the start.

Are the four numbers in a row sequentially?

IE: Spin #1 is 1, Spin #2 is 2, Spin #3 is 3 and Spin #4 is 4?
« Last Edit: July 06, 2016, 08:13:20 AM by Reyth »
 

Dane

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 291
  • Thanked: 145 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Probability question
« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2016, 08:15:20 AM »
You are PARTLY right, Reyth. But the question is NOT how many times a certain double street has appeared or if it has appeared in a sequence or not. Rather it is a question of the number of DIFFERENT NUMBERS IN IT have appeared.
An example: Number 1, 2, 3 and  4 have have appeared. 5 and 6 have not.
THE   OTHER TWO DOUBLE STREETS (7-12 and 13-18) have each come with less numbers. Leass than four.

SO I START BETTING 5 and 6 and hope to get a hit BEFORE any of the two other mentioned double streets have appeared with four numbers measured from the start.

Are the four numbers in a row sequentially?
WHO KNOWS? It is not a matter of sequence or not but simply how many numbers there have appeared. Other numbers from other areas might have come  in between- but not too many as indicated :)
« Last Edit: July 06, 2016, 08:17:55 AM by Dane »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3346
  • Thanked: 1000 times
Re: Probability question
« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2016, 08:18:23 AM »
Well then how many spins are you willing to go back for analysis, inifinity?

The more rare the event you create, the greater chances of you achieving success.

I need to know the spin analysis window to be able to create/identify your trigger and obtain the results.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2016, 08:26:30 AM by Reyth »