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Author Topic: The meaning of riskless trials  (Read 2849 times)

BlueAngel

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The meaning of riskless trials
« on: July 02, 2016, 06:39:13 PM »
In a way you could consider trials of a system/method/strategy as past results under scrutiny.
If you agree with the above statement, then let's make one step further and say that this is the base of reverse engineering.

So here is my first question; what's the problem with reverse engineering?
Let me clarify that I'm not with, neither against it, in my opinion it could be the foundation of a "Holy Grail" or it could be nothing.

For example if we reverse engineer 1,000 results it would be insignificant because the sample is relatively small, but if we would do the same for 1,000,000 results with a positive outcome, it could be the definition of the "Holy Grail" of gambling because in such huge total of results too many combinations, situations are getting covered.

So, IMO, reverse engineering doesn't mean anything if we don't determine how much is enough, how many results conclude a sufficient sample.
Here comes my second question which has 2 legs:

When you are trying a system/strategy/method how long does it take before you feel confident enough and proceed to the real game? I want not a number of observed spins, but a number of successful bets, thank you.

And the 2nd leg of the question, if doesn't stands to your expectations, how many units you  have to lose (in paper/trial) in total before you decide that this system/strategy/method is not good for you?

Have you ever felt very confident about something you have tried but when you start it with real money you experienced negative results?
If yes, did it happen few times or many times?
If you asked me, honestly it happened to me many times, that's why I feel, in a way, like Ken...
because he said that tried MANY systems/methods/strategies, spending MUCH time and money on the way.

Personally speaking, I DON'T regret my decisions, but I'm trying to learn from my mistakes and don't repeat them.
All that time time and money spent I consider it as investment for my development, not only for my gambling experience but also for my progress as a personality.
Under such difficult situations is  where one could build a strong character and not when everything is easy and nice.

One last thing, I have nothing against "hit 'n' run" tactics, BUT when someone is applying such tactic then it becomes obvious that he cares about the results and the profit, NOT the game itself!
So if someone claims that he doesn't care about money, but only about "ideas" while he is fan of "hit 'n' run" there are 2 possible explanations...

(admin: edited. BA, this is a nice post, why end it with polemic? What is the point?)

« Last Edit: July 02, 2016, 07:06:19 PM by kav »


 
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kav

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2016, 07:14:23 PM »
BA,

Nice post.

You ruined it in the end. Please avoid personal attacks. We have made a very conscious decision that polemic between members has no place in this forum. Period.

Everyone cares about the results and the profit. This is the challenge. A mental and personal challenge. Hit and Run is a concept/idea itself. I really do not see the contradiction if someone who cares about "concepts" and "ideas" uses hit and run. Btw, when I use the word ideas I mean strategies or incomplete strategies, starting points for further development. And I have used and still use among others hit and run techniques. 

Now about your main point:
"Have you ever felt very confident about something you have tried but when you start it with real money you experienced negative results?"

Let me just give you and everyone else a very practical advise. Try this:
Take 350 real continuous spins from here
Now, depending on your system, remove 10% of your winners. Let's say your system wins when the 31-36 doublestreet comes. Go to the spins file and remove every 10th hit (31-36).
Now test your system for these spins.
This is an very useful and very simple method to see how your system does against a hard spin sequence.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2016, 07:20:52 PM by kav »
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2016, 07:23:43 PM »
BA,

Nice post.

You ruined it in the end. Please avoid personal attacks. We have made a very conscious decision that polemic between members has no place in this forum. Period.

Everyone cares about the results and the profit. This is the challenge. A mental and personal challenge. Hit and Run is a concept itself. I really do not see the contradiction if someone who cares about "concepts" and "ideas" uses hit and run. Btw, when I use the word ideas I mean strategies or incomplete strategies, starting points for further development. And I have used and still use among others hit and run techniques. 

Now about your main point:
"Have you ever felt very confident about something you have tried but when you start it with real money you experienced negative results?"

Let me just give you and everyone else a very practical advise. Try this:
Take 350 real continuous spins from here
Now, depending on your system, remove 10% of your winners. Let's say your system wins when the 31-36 doublestreet comes. Go to the spins file and remove every 10th hit (31-36).
Now test your system for these spins.
This is an very useful and very simple method to see how your system does against a hard spin sequence.

I've to disagree with you because if your method is hit + run then your only concern is MONEY, not the game and/or entertaining purposes!
« Last Edit: July 02, 2016, 07:28:33 PM by kav »
 

kav

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2016, 07:30:10 PM »
Who has ever said that his main concern is entertainment?
The challenge, for me at least, is to win a negative expectation game.
IF hit and run helps in this regard (this is another discussion) why should anyone not use it?
I do not understand your line of thinking. If you want to explain further, please do so in a respectful way.

I think you have mixed up a very valid question about "paper testing vs real world results" with a inexplicable attack to whoever uses hit and run methods.

And after all what do you believe, do hit and run methods offer and advantage in making money?
« Last Edit: July 02, 2016, 07:43:06 PM by kav »
 

Reyth

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2016, 07:44:43 PM »
I like the body of your post that deals with testing and confidence in results.

I personally feel that if my computer can demonstrate a particular result that I am unable to overcome, this risk is too high to be confident in the system.  I have went ahead and played for real money anyway in the hopes I wouldn't see the worst and got nailed for it.

This has bred in me the desire to "close the loop" and make something where my computer does not show a loss.  I am still working on it.

I consider 16M betting events to be a significant benchmark for me.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2016, 08:08:07 PM »
Who has ever said that his main concern is entertainment?
The challenge, for me at least, is to win a negative expectation game.
IF hit and run helps in this regard (this is another discussion) why should anyone not use it?
I do not understand your line of thinking. If you want to explain further, please do so in a respectful way.

I think you have mixed up a very valid question about "paper testing vs real world results" with a inexplicable attack to whoever uses hit and run methods.

And after all what do you believe, do hit and run methods offer and advantage in making money?

I didn't said that hit 'n' run doesn't work, but also I'm not the one who endorses it because in MY approaches I  always consider the relationship between risk and reward...so what's the point if you are winning 1 unit for 97 consecutive days and on the 98th session you lose 100 units?!
What's the point of using a long and aggressive progression such as Martingale in order to win peanuts in regards with what you risk, for example risking 500 to win 50 units?!
Do you get my point now?

For plenty of gamblers the 2 above tactics are good, for me no, as you see I'm not going with the flow, with the majority but not because I want to be different, but because I really believe in what I'm doing.

Entertainment or for the love of the game means  to take your time at the table, relax, have a cigar, a drink, chat with croupiers and other players, have fun...not to grab 1, 2 or something units and then run o the exit like a thief!
So "hit 'n' run" or as I call it "skirmish mode" is equivalent to "I want this money"
Just think about from the opposite side, if you were casino staff, croupier for example, and you would see someone doing this, what would you think about that person??
I tell you what: " A whole unit has been perished!" ;D  HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

To all of you, just keep doing what you are doing and don't pay attention to my raving, after all someone has to feed the "monkey"...

 
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BlueAngel

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2016, 08:21:11 PM »
I like the body of your post that deals with testing and confidence in results.

I personally feel that if my computer can demonstrate a particular result that I am unable to overcome, this risk is too high to be confident in the system.  I have went ahead and played for real money anyway in the hopes I wouldn't see the worst and got nailed for it.

This has bred in me the desire to "close the loop" and make something where my computer does not show a loss.  I am still working on it.

I consider 16M betting events to be a significant benchmark for me.

I really appreciate your efforts around roulette, BUT don't waste your time and energy in that direction...

What I'm trying to say is that it's vanity to try winning EVERY possible situation, we CANNOT avoid having enemies, but we CAN choose which enemies we have...

The weapon of  choice is a double  edged  axe...use it wisely!
 

kav

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2016, 10:05:43 PM »
BA,

I have played both ways. Skirmish mode and gambling mode as I call it.
The first one can make some money. The later is more fun, but not a money maker. You can "gamble" with a good system and lose less than the average player or even get even.
So basically we agree.
And I think you would agree that the real challenge is not to "take your time at the table, relax, have a cigar, a drink, chat with croupiers and other players, have fun", but to be profitable. And if the casino stuff doesn't like you or call you a "mouse" as they call the "Rentner" or "pension-players" in Greece, that should be of no concern.
 

scepticus

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2016, 02:41:07 PM »
Who has ever said that his main concern is entertainment?
The challenge, for me at least, is to win a negative expectation game.
IF hit and run helps in this regard (this is another discussion) why should anyone not use it?
I do not understand your line of thinking. If you want to explain further, please do so in a respectful way.

I think you have mixed up a very valid question about "paper testing vs real world results" with a inexplicable attack to whoever uses hit and run methods.

And after all what do you believe, do hit and run methods offer and advantage in making money?

I didn't said that hit 'n' run doesn't work, but also I'm not the one who endorses it because in MY approaches I  always consider the relationship between risk and reward...so what's the point if you are winning 1 unit for 97 consecutive days and on the 98th session you lose 100 units?!
What's the point of using a long and aggressive progression such as Martingale in order to win peanuts in regards with what you risk, for example risking 500 to win 50 units?!
Do you get my point now?

For plenty of gamblers the 2 above tactics are good, for me no, as you see I'm not going with the flow, with the majority but not because I want to be different, but because I really believe in what I'm doing.

Entertainment or for the love of the game means  to take your time at the table, relax, have a cigar, a drink, chat with croupiers and other players, have fun...not to grab 1, 2 or something units and then run o the exit like a thief!
So "hit 'n' run" or as I call it "skirmish mode" is equivalent to "I want this money"
Just think about from the opposite side, if you were casino staff, croupier for example, and you would see someone doing this, what would you think about that person??
I tell you what: " A whole unit has been perished!" ;D  HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

To all of you, just keep doing what you are doing and don't pay attention to my raving, after all someone has to feed the "monkey"...

I think your prejudice is showing here BA.
You seem to think that Hit and Run is  only about leaving the table with ONE unit, Not so.
Hit and Run can  mean leaving the table after having won your targetted amount .
It means NOT continuing and being killed by The Long Run.
It means accepting that variance has been in your favour for the time spent at the table but might not continue to do so.
It means locking in a profit which you won't give back to the House in that session.
 As for enjoying a chat with fellow players, having a smoke etc. why do you think that cannot be done away from the table ? Or with croupiers ? I invariably do .
Like many here Money is not my main concern- it is proving that we can REALly profit at roulette .Money  is the proof - proof that we accepted the Challenge and won.
I use maths. Ideas from the Nine Block and the Five-in Seven which reduce variance.These were originally created by Professional  Mathematicians - but without a zero.As a zero occurs on average once in 37 spins then we still  have"36windows of opportunities, ".
I may be the only one in the forum that doesn't do Statistic Samples but I genuinely believe that any conclusions  made from such samples  apply only to those samples.
I think you should confine your philosophical remarks to the Philosophy section where they properly belong.
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2016, 04:31:48 PM »


Quote
Hit and Run can  mean leaving the table after having won your targetted amount .
It means NOT continuing and being killed by The Long Run.
It means accepting that variance has been in your favour for the time spent at the table but might not continue to do so.

The aimed amount is different for every player, so "hit 'n' run" in my perception is being defined by the relatively low profit in regards with the bankroll at risk.

For example if I risk 100 units to win 1 or 2 units per session, this is what I call skirmish mode.
The same goes for a bankroll of 1000 units which aims to win up to 20 units.

What's the "long run"? It sounds vague in my opinion and vague definitions are causing vague answers.
But speaking about variance and stopping before it alters against you is pointless because you don't know if the "negative" variance would start when you start playing, in other words your situation is only profitable if a "positive" variance precedes the "negative" long enough in order you to profit and stop.

In my point of view I consider a good strategy the one which is flexible, could be altered on the way and incorporates the swings of variance.
With such a strategy "hit n run" tactics are obsolete.

Quote
As for enjoying a chat with fellow players, having a smoke etc. why do you think that cannot be done away from the table ? Or with croupiers ? I invariably do .

I believe you but at some other casinos don't let you around for long when you don't play.

Quote
Like many here Money is not my main concern

I believe the majority cares about money like I do.

Quote
it is proving that we can REALly profit at roulette

I couldn't care less about proving and providing evidence, we are not contesting about  the Nobel prize here!

Quote
I use maths. Ideas from the Nine Block and the Five-in Seven which reduce variance.These were originally created by Professional  Mathematicians - but without a zero.As a zero occurs on average once in 37 spins then we still  have"36windows of opportunities, ".

This method  is old as you are, why don't you try something new for a change?
The active members contribute always something new in order to evolve our way of thinking, do not revolve around the same again and again!

Quote
I may be the only one in the forum that doesn't do Statistic Samples but I genuinely believe that any conclusions  made from such samples  apply only to those samples.

But you are missing the most important which is the sample size, it's one thing a sample of 37 spins, another 370, and completely different one with 3700.
Look at it this way, could you find the same variance in 37 spins in comparison with a sample of 3700 spins?

Quote
I think you should confine your philosophical remarks to the Philosophy section where they properly belong.

Semantics are not the essence but the meaning of them is.
 

scepticus

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2016, 05:07:20 PM »
Hi BA
We both have different approaches to "systems".
What I and others object to is your criticism of Hit and Run when your opinion is limited to a 1 unit win .
When I bet my preferred method I use a 15 unit bank and aim for a 15 unit profit. When I reach that I quit. Yes, I could be leaving a winning streak but my experience determines otherwise. I don't seek a fortune but a realistic amount. I leave the table if I lose 15 units whether or not I have already won some units.
Twist and turn how we may we cannot forecast when variance will be favourable or unfavourable, THAT would be the Holy Grail.
As for my method being as old as me Perhaps you will tell me where you previously read about it ? I have had it ridiculed  but never told that it had previously been used  so I think  you are wrong here
but perhaps you will prove me wrong ?

Thanks for not pointing out that this thread is in the Philosophy section. OOPS !
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 05:09:06 PM by scepticus »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2016, 05:40:55 PM »
Hi BA
We both have different approaches to "systems".
What I and others object to is your criticism of Hit and Run when your opinion is limited to a 1 unit win .
When I bet my preferred method I use a 15 unit bank and aim for a 15 unit profit. When I reach that I quit. Yes, I could be leaving a winning streak but my experience determines otherwise. I don't seek a fortune but a realistic amount. I leave the table if I lose 15 units whether or not I have already won some units.
Twist and turn how we may we cannot forecast when variance will be favourable or unfavourable, THAT would be the Holy Grail.
As for my method being as old as me Perhaps you will tell me where you previously read about it ? I have had it ridiculed  but never told that it had previously been used  so I think  you are wrong here
but perhaps you will prove me wrong ?

Thanks for not pointing out that this thread is in the Philosophy section. OOPS !

The way you describe your stop win/loss limits it is NOT what I call hit n run or "skirmish mode", BUT I thought you are using a progression which costs 80 something units, so if your lost sessions cost you 84 while the winning ones add 15 units in the bigger picture, this is NOT the same thing obviously!

Didn't you tell us that you copied that method from a very old article which was not roulette related?
Perhaps the implementation in roulette is not so old, but the concept itself is.
Always allow just a bit of benefit of doubt because no one knows what EVERY single player around the world is doing...
I disregard your jive about this topic section Scep because I was not the one who moved it here...
 

scepticus

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2016, 06:56:17 PM »
Exactly BA. It is not what YOU call Hit and Run . Hit and Run can mean different things to different people.
Like Reyth I indulge in "What Ifs".I try different ideas with differing strategies but I don't think your reference of 80 / 84 was mine.
Yes, I did say that I used the concept from another betting medium but we are talking about roulette
here  and I think I am the only one who adapted it for roulette. You said it was as old as me (untrue ) and inferred that you were aware of it before.
What I have posted is mainly from these two sources and, yes, I think they are as good a starting point as any other on the forum because they reduce variance whereas others don't.

As for Doubt . I am the one on the forum who has repeatedly stated that I am guessing so doesn't that express doubt ? And I have constantly said that long progressions are to be avoided - the shorter the better . 
As for statistics. One thousand, one million , one trillion  trials still  require conclusions to be drawn.
Conclusions which may or may not be usable in roulette . So I repeat conclusions from a statistical Sample /s apply only to that /those sample/s. That , I think, is why many in the forum are surprised that their stats in fun mode are not replicated  in real mode.
Anyway, I think we should end it here BA. You are hardly likely to convert me to your way of thinking nor you to mine.
At least we both THINK  !
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2016, 07:04:27 PM »
Quote
Anyway, I think we should end it here BA. You are hardly likely to convert me to your way of thinking nor you to mine.
At least we both THINK  !

You and I are the only persons  around here who are not completely fools!  8)
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: The meaning of riskless trials
« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2016, 08:58:29 AM »
I love the ambiance and the free drinks in my B&M casino. I spend alot of time playing roulette. I am interested in the features of random sequences. As a chessplayer I try also to beat the roulette. Every game is beatable by a strategy.My research has learned me it is only possible with short run samples. In short run sessions even every system has periodes of a positive BR. Hit and run can exploit such moments.

I use also hit and run at the end of my visit.

I enjoy also programming analises of the different chances and sytems. In my blog you can find some results of the classic betting selections as Fibonacci D`Alembert  and La Bouchere
 
 
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