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11
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by MrPerfect. on Yesterday at 12:23:34 PM »
 To put it on simple terms... AP is limiting degrees of freedom.
    Let's see what is HE . It's just existence of 1 number ( in USA 2) that casino do not pay. Obviously if you bet zero and it hits they do pay, but payment is reduced comparing with real odds of the event.
   If player gets to " take out some numbers out equation " ( limit degrees of freedom) he will have advantage over casino. It's not because player is superman, but because wheel and ball themselves offer this advantage to the player.
    Anyone can do a scatter chart, take a casino card and look distance between first number ball beat and last number( result)... mark these distances on casino card. Collect 100 trial's this way and you will see yourself where that magical " half of wheel that offer advantage" is.
    Obviously such a test will be a misrepresentation of what is really going on there and good vb player does it a bit different, but such a test is good enough for the purpose.
   Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself. You can repeat the test and compare results if any doubts persist. Ball has only that much to jump. 
12
Roulette Systems / Re: Bullseye
« Last post by Reyth on Yesterday at 11:30:56 AM »
Ok starting with the number 17 and if it gets clogged, I will switch to 0 and only switch back if it gets clogged.

+27 +22 +23 +15 +35 = +122 (5) G6
+3 +8 +32 +7 +3 +36 +19 = +108/+230 (12) L96

+37 +25 +70 = +132/+362 (15) L123
+3 +10 +8 +29=+50/+412 (19) L184
+60 +29 +13=+102/+514 (25) L191
+26 +35 +29 +35=+125/+639 (29) L195
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Casino Lounge / Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Last post by dobbelsteen on Yesterday at 11:30:11 AM »

I have programmed the 4 step double dozens system. The system is very dangerous. The zero and the repeater are killing. The program has a stop after the fourth step. Very small sessions can be very profitable.

Here the image of my study of a winning session.
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Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by dobbelsteen on Yesterday at 11:24:18 AM »
A table gambler thinks he can predict the color of the next spin.
A cilinder player thinks he can predict the  sector or the neighbors on the cilinder the next spin.

After 6x the Voisins du Zero the probability is not changed.

The fallacy is for both gamblers the same. Cilinder players can also use statistic phenomena.
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Roulette Systems / Re: Merge Street
« Last post by Reyth on Yesterday at 11:03:25 AM »
Here is why the "Mouse" strategy doesn't work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsjEYDnAaUc&t=1250s

All-time high 527.08
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 27  525.82
User drops to level 2  525.82
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 5  526.06
 0 hits on spin 6  526.5
 0 hits on spin 48  522.1
User drops to level 3  522.1
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 31  519.7
User drops to level 4  519.7
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 3  519.94
 1 hits on spin 20  518.74
User drops to level 5  518.74
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 7  520.14
User moves up to Level 4
User moves up to Level 3
 1 hits on spin 11  520.26
 1 hits on spin 38  516.48
User drops to level 4  516.48
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 4  517.12
 0 hits on spin 16  518.08
User notes recovery profit goal 518.08
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 11  517.84
 0 hits on spin 16  519.28
 3 hits on spin 22  519.6
User notes recovery profit goal 516.48
User notes recovery profit goal 519.6
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 2  519.92
 3 hits on spin 42  507.12
User drops to level 5  507.12
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 7  508.52
 1 hits on spin 20  508.12
User notes recovery profit goal 508.12
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 13  510.12
 1 hits on spin 19  510.52
User notes recovery profit goal 510.52
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 11  512.02
 2 hits on spin 19  513.22
User notes recovery profit goal 513.22
User resets session
User drops to level 6  489.02
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 16  489.98
 1 hits on spin 36  486.38
User drops to level 7  486.38
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 8  486.38
 2 hits on spin 10  487.92
 0 hits on spin 14  489.04
User moves up to Level 6
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 15  487.6
 2 hits on spin 21  490.24
User notes recovery profit goal 490.24
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 12  489.88
 2 hits on spin 23  491.68
User notes recovery profit goal 491.68
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 4  492.64
 2 hits on spin 12  494.08
 2 hits on spin 13  495.4
 1 hits on spin 17  495.64
User notes recovery profit goal 495.64
User resets session
User moves up to Level 5
User notes recovery profit goal 510.52
User notes recovery profit goal 508.12
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 495.64
 3 hits on spin 8  495.64
 0 hits on spin 10  496.64
 3 hits on spin 19  496.94
User notes recovery profit goal 496.94
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 3  497.34
 1 hits on spin 18  496.14
User drops to level 6  496.14
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 23  491.1
User drops to level 7  491.1
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 2  492.5
 0 hits on spin 7  495.02
 3 hits on spin 19  494.18
User notes recovery profit goal 494.18
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 18  491.38
User notes recovery profit goal 491.38
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 16  493.06
 1 hits on spin 25  493.48
User notes recovery profit goal 493.48
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 2  494.04
 3 hits on spin 12  494.04
 2 hits on spin 16  495.16
User moves up to Level 6
User notes recovery profit goal 495.16
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 2  496.36
 0 hits on spin 8  498.28
 2 hits on spin 9  499.6
User moves up to Level 5
User notes recovery profit goal 495.64
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 499.6
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 2  500.6
 1 hits on spin 6  500.8
 3 hits on spin 8  501.2
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 501.2
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 25  501.6
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 5016
User notes recovery profit goal 507.12
User notes recovery profit goal 501.6
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 29  494.4
User drops to level 6  494.4
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 7  496.08
 1 hits on spin 22  494.64
User notes recovery profit goal 494.64
User resets session
 3 hits on spin 6  495.12
 1 hits on spin 7  495.72
 1 hits on spin 24  493.92
User drops to level 7  493.92
User resets session
 0 hits on spin 3  495.18
User moves up to Level 6
User notes recovery profit goal 494.4
User notes recovery profit goal 495.18
 3 hits on spin 15  494.82
 1 hits on spin 30  492.3
User drops to level 7  492.3
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 17  490.2
User drops to level 8  490.2
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 4  491.64
 0 hits on spin 22  493.24
User moves up to Level 7
User notes recovery profit goal 493.24
User resets session
 1 hits on spin 13  492.68
 0 hits on spin 17  493.94
User notes recovery profit goal 493.94
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 34  486.38
User drops to level 8  486.38
User resets session
 2 hits on spin 5  487.66
User drops to level 9  447.66

I simply got tagged by the blindness that is associated with being unaware of the true governing forces of roulette statistics.

Taking everything that I have learned and applying it all, I need to do the following:

1) Bet a single number
2) Track all relevant statistics
2a) HS -- hit to spin ratio = short term indicator
2b) PLE -- progression loss event = long term indicator
2c) PMI -- progression movement indicator = medium term indicator
3) Cease betting (continue spinning) when the true roulette statistics indicate high risk
4) Set the recovery inclination upward by setting statistically safer profit goals & locking in profits
5) Track a second number for when the main number becomes too statistically compromised

I had discovered some very powerful things and accomplished some amazing recoveries before I sidetracked myself by wanting to bet "only the best numbers on the board" and ended up invoking the RECTM on myself.

I need to get back to all of that and only work with 1 main number and only switch out to a pre-determined number if absolutely necessary.



Quote
I need to document the governing forces of roulette before I forget about the overall concept.

1) HS Ratio -- Based on gaps in spins
2) PLE Ratio -- Based on gaps in coups
3) SBE -- Based on large gaps <===

Roulette is governed by GAPS.  I need to keep my mind open to discover new gap-related phenomenon.

I have discovered a way to predict when large gaps are more likely and when they are less likely, over a long term.

On a scale of 1 to 10:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
I simply don't bet in the red states and enjoy a statistical advantage.

There are rare exceptions to these statistics which are Black Swan Events (BSE) and I simply stop betting while the wheel is producing those statistics, minimizing my losses & recovering my debt only during green and orange states.

I have also discovered a short term gapping advantage in Snap Back Events (SBE) which yield statistically profitable results (I have re-analyzed them and my initial 84 gap data was based on a shorter progression and so I need to come up with a new benchmark for the SBE).

All of these advantages are 100% COMPLETELY WRECKED if I try to apply this to "only the best numbers" because the REC asserts itself.  The only way this statistical strategy works is if I stick to a single number.



Wow, I have just realized that I can apply this strategy to a group of numbers just the same as a single number!

I just need to modify the software:

1) Track hits
1a) Change current hit tracking to sum totals, for casual reference
1a1) Remove balance tracking from current hit tracking
2) Automatically calculate HS Ratio

3) Track PMI
3a) Reset PMI after a PLE
4) Track PLE Ratio
5) Remove (R)eset function
6) Calculate a proper SBE benchmark (31)



So now my first goal is to re-earn my former profit level of 2708 units.

+336/+336 (0) [51]

Noting here that the PMI is at 51 coups with no PLE yet occurring.
16
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by Bebediktus on Yesterday at 10:34:33 AM »
There are no difference, limited spins number or not. The only matter is to play numbers, with positive expectattion. AP is that, who can do that enough good.

Of course even playing positive numbers we sometimes loss. You must understand and look to wheel like to your oponent and think,  you are stronger than he or not. If you are stronger - you play and finally will end in positive result.And here is no matter when that  final will come...

That is like if Grandmaster will play chess against simple player, or say if like Lithuania will play basket against Poland. Of course bouth can win , but one side have much bigger chances....
17
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by kav on Yesterday at 10:17:15 AM »
Let's go back to basics and keep it simple.

Gambler's fallacy if you think about it, is based on the expectation of the player, that theoretical probabilities would manifest themselves on a limited number of spins. This is why the player thinks that since the probability of red is roughly 50% after 6 Blacks the Red will make a comeback.

In the same sense the AP thinks that the theoretical INCREASED probabilities would manifest themselves in a limited number of spins. Let's say for example that a 8 numbers section has a biased probability of 28% instead of the normal 21,6%. Isn't it gambler's fallacy to expect that this advantage will manifest itself in a limited number of spins?

To put it another way, if Red that has roughly 50% probability can sleep for 17 spins again and again and appear only 33% over a large number of spins, then also your biased numbers can sleep as well. Even biased numbers can have fluctuations and disappear or get cold for considerable periods of time. Believing otherwise is Gambler's Fallacy.
18
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by Real on August 21, 2017, 10:30:52 PM »
Your advantage from "random rows" isn't an really advantage.    However, advantage players play with a real advantage over the casino which is why they're referred to as being "advantage players."
19
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by dobbelsteen on August 21, 2017, 09:49:05 PM »
Ask 10 different called AP players, what is their advantage  and edge, I think you become 10 different answers
My advantage at the roulette is my mind and the knowledge of random rows.
A player is not able to discover an anomaly of the occurrence of the numbers. This is also valid for a bias of a fair RNG. 1M spins is not enough to discover real anomalies. Pseudo anomalies are variance of the randomness.
20
Casino Lounge / Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Last post by MrPerfect. on August 21, 2017, 01:11:35 PM »
To prevent future not populated arguments, l would like to state following :
 ADVANTAGE IS OFFERED BY THE WHEEL ( BALL) ITSELF.  It is what it is, can be traced and verified by anyone interested in his local casino.
  There are 2 main phenomenon that offer advantage :
  1. Limit in ball travel path ( works for vb)
  2. Desbalance in number hit frequency  ( good for bias)....
     Wheels generally are not very perfect or very broken, but something in between. ... whatever wheel has inclination to ( more good then broken, or more broken then good) will particularly determine method of prediction and exploration.
   Please keep in mind statements mentioned above if you wanna comment on this tread, let's address any problems or misunderstanding directly, so we can have a productive discussion,  right?
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