Author Topic: Triggers in Systems  (Read 1785 times)

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MickyP

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Triggers in Systems
« on: November 29, 2017, 08:43:23 PM »
As a system player I'm shooting myself in the foot with this one but here goes anyway...

System players mostly rely on spin history to kick off their game/session. We look for triggers/sequences/hot numbers/cold numbers/streaks and so on to determine where our bet will be played. All fair and well because this approach seems to work, if only to convince ourselves that our bet selection based on the recent history of spins is a winning placement. BUT, just in case it isn't, we have a backup plan of repeating the wager flat betting or with a progression. All roulette players know the drill so I won't beat you down with the details.

Now here is the shotgun aimed at my foot: one of the first things we learn about roulette is that it is a "random" game and that spin history has no influence on future spins. Hell! It's hard to believe that the waiting and tracking and waiting again to place an informed bet is actually in vain and that we are setting ourselves up for another expensive lesson.

Spin history has no influence on future spins. With this I understand the luck associated with the game. I also understand why MrPerfect only needs one spin on a B/M live table to start betting using visual ballistics . Is this the direction to the holy grail?

Palestis has an amazing trigger (xxy) for single dozen play and it works very well, I know, I've tested it with hard cash in a live casino. He doesn't know why it works and neither do I, but it works. Yes, the trigger is based on the recent spin history.

This can be likened to a dog running in circles trying to catch it's tail, the elusive holy grail. Lol

What triggers do you use and what is your guesstimate of its success?



 
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Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2017, 10:03:00 PM »
There is a difference between one number not having an influence on the next number to show up and cumulative probabilty which deals with entire sequences of spins. 

We have been "spun" by our critics who only wish to focus (and have us focus) on a single spin and/or ignore cumulative probability, for their own reasons.

I and many others have proven the probabilities through simulations of millions of spins or exponential maths.

The Physics of Statistics uses cumulative probability to help us choose our bets.  These probabilities can be proven through simulations.

Here is a post I like about this subject:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=1905.msg27135#msg27135

Here is another from two folks much wiser:

http://forum.roulette30.com/index.php?topic=134.msg829#msg829
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 10:32:46 PM by Reyth »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2017, 12:04:50 AM »
MickyP,  there is a data and there is THE DATA.
   I'll try to speak as simple as l can... but subject is quite complex.
   "Spin" is when something is spinning.  There are ball and wheel , they both have some speed besides other parameters.  Spin has time it takes... times , places where ball may arrive, how it jump, it's all fluid and changes constantly ( not every spin, but sometimes even every spin). These are "data" and it's perishable as an ice cream.  However, in all this caos of "data" there are specific points that show fundamental relationship between them( stability ).  Distances may change even in short periods of time,but these data points and relationship between them does not change ( unless another wheel/ ball..).
    These data points are "THE DATA" and do represent primary interest for a player.
    So, you are right when you say that l use one spin only for vb... but at the same time l use data points ( THE DATA) from all previous spins that l observed and written down.
   As you can see , what l call "spins " is a bit different thing.
 
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MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2017, 02:37:43 AM »
Reyth and MrPerfect , thank you both for shedding light on the subject.

The virtual loss trigger makes sense. It can be viewed as game management if you like.

The idea of each spin being totally independent is in fact an untruth as I understand it or better still a generalisation punted as fact.

I've read many articles that start off by stating that roulette is a game of luck and nothing more, yet by understanding "luck" (another word for random in this case) the player is able to manipulate events in his favour through selective betting governed by triggers.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2017, 11:08:30 AM »
Micky, be careful with triggers.  Trigger is just an event,  events are open for interpretation and many people do interpret them incorrectly. 
    For example... loss trigger. Be it "virtual" or real loss, it's just a loss. It mean one thing only : something didn't hit. It's not very wise to expect something to happen while it doesn't happens.
Most probably this something is not going to happen for a while... really, do not bet on something that does not hit at the moment, especially if it does so for a while already.
      "Virtual hit" is much better option for a trigger , but somehow majority do not think that way.
    Make sure that your triggers do in fact produce events that you expect to the degree of high statistical significance. These triggers that are physics based are more likely to pass common sense verification. ... to tell the truth, l never seen a working trigger based on something else then physics. 
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2017, 01:47:27 PM »
in the short run mode the outcome of the RNG has the behavior of a pendulum. This is valid for all kind of wagers and also for the profit and the loss. The experience player knows the feature or the behavior of the pendulum and use it in his benefit. You have to start  with study  the results of simulations or   real data.
 

Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2017, 03:45:05 PM »
Its true that the full effect of using statistical triggers is by no means "easily understood" but we are definitely able to "control and manipulate our game" using them.
 

MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2017, 08:47:46 PM »
Triggers do benefit the player if used correctly. The triggers that many players use are simply recognising a specific event with the presumption that a certain event will follow within X amounts of spins. This is based on statistics taken from spin history that includes a nominal amount of spins. However one reaches the conclusion to identify a trigger the fact remains that the trigger is a sign used to predict a future event. There is general concensus that using a trigger correctly increases wins over a session of play.

I'll look into the virtual hit trigger MrPerfect. Thanks.
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2017, 09:58:56 PM »
Micky,  you can try to figure virtual hits out by yourself as well.... but it belongs to uplied  math play area. ... with non random bet selections....  example of such a methodology can be found in system only part of forum...  it's only topic that l started.
 

Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2017, 11:10:04 PM »
I think identifying the selection that has hit the most is a form of virtual hits?
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2017, 11:47:59 PM »
Reyth, lm not sure what exactly you mean... "trigger" is event that show when to bet.
    In case of virtual hit , you wait till it starts to hit to start to place bets.
   It's normally used ( at least by me) , when some hiden condition may put active the target.
If target sometimes hits like there is no tomorrow and other times keep quite... especially if it happens from session to session... then some hidden condition is in place ( we do not know what it is, but we clearly see it  affects).
    We may try to identify this condition or just ignore it and use hit rate of our target as a qualifier to place bets.
    BTW,  not always something that has hit the most is the best target... it can be or not, depends on other things as well.
 

LiveRouletteOnlinePlayer

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2017, 01:12:25 PM »
Pattern may be a Trigger  ;)
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2017, 01:14:57 PM »
Anything can be a trigger, as long as it triggers; )
 
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Jesper

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2017, 04:09:13 PM »
Using triggers use to mean do not play every spins, and naturally the bank may last longer in time. Even the door can work walk home if the bankroll is empty (try to win 1000 with 100, "hit and run", next day is not the new, it is allways a continue. That's make all "stop while ahead", and "play a few spins change table" to become nonsense.
"I am unlucky because two times in   row the system fail??? If your system fail two times in a row, is not a problem, if it not fails in longer run, it is a short bank we talk about(never chip up)!
 
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Sputnik

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2017, 04:26:04 PM »


There has to be a reason why there is a trigger or entering point.
For example if i want to aim for strikes using even money bets, then i stop after reaching two singles, because i know after measuring the probability scale that two singles versus one serie of three has a 50/50 chance.
Then i know i have 50% chance to catch series of three or higher, great if some one use positiv progression or want to win two in a row.

And is also triggers for when to hold on and safe guard your profits and not give it all back to the casino using any kind of system play. And they also have a reason towards why, when to exit.

Now you read so much on this forum, so this will not get your attention.
But this is one among others of my winning ways.

Cheers
 
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