Author Topic: Triggers in Systems  (Read 4596 times)

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palestis

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #30 on: December 03, 2017, 02:47:19 PM »
Yes there is a control group for such test. And it's not guessing or assuming.
It is the undertaking of testing millions of spins.
You compare what happens after 10 blacks or 10 odds or 10 highs or as many of whatever the system involves vs. betting from the beginning.
Definitely  you will hit more reds by betting on them from the beginning, but what happens when you run into 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 blacks in a row? (which by the way it happens frequently).
You will lose \$10-20-40-80-160-320 ........etc.
Financially and psychologically most players will not be able to continue betting, even if a tsunami of reds was up ahead for them.
Then you compare that to  what happens after 10 blacks had already spun.
You see,  betting on red from the beginning you win 10,10,10,10, 10 (or whatever your min. bet is), very frequently, But when 5 black will show up, (which will happen many times),  you lose \$310 (10+20+40+80+160).
It will take at least 30 straight hits on red to recover \$310.
And I guarantee you that you will run into another 5 blacks long before you are able to recover your initial \$310.
So playing that way, it's a  certain death sentence for the player.
Betting after 10 black, I doubt that you will always run into 15 + blacks in a row every time you bet.
Otherwise the score boards would be filled with one color in many tables as you observe.
Instead such situation is viewed as a total solar eclipse by most players. Meaning, it is very very rare.
What is even more rare, is to see 15+ black 2 or more times in a row.
A lengthy multi million spins test will reveal all the answers.
A trigger should be the result of hard work in testing.
Not a convenient starting point.

« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 02:50:12 PM by palestis »

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Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #31 on: December 03, 2017, 04:22:02 PM »

A trigger should be the result of hard work in testing.
Not a convenient starting point.

This is GOLD!

That being said, it is only ONE essential element in a successful system.

Even though we are very likely to miss many large and successive losses, eventually we will lose and we must successfully recover without fail; "lose" can mean different things but basically our losses will accrue to a point where our normal betting method is too likley to fail (successive drawdowns) versus succeed.

We can use probability and statistics to dig ourselves out; if we've done our homework with our trigger, it will serve us well in this process.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 04:46:55 PM by Reyth »

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MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #32 on: December 03, 2017, 05:40:55 PM »
So through extensive testing a trigger can be discovered and used to win bets going forward. In other words, through extensive testing it can be proved that past history has an influence on future spins. For some reason people avoid answering this with a simple yes or no (agree  or disagree).

What other way is there to identify a trigger than by studying spin history?

"Convenient starting point" is exactly that, nothing more. The game has to start somewhere and at some time. It's pointless following spins for half a day to get your bearing before you place your first bet. Reyth , as you say, triggers are a small yet important part of the game. In this thread the emphasis is on "important".

Please understand that I am aware that many of you who have responded to this thread are hardcore roulette analysts and your opinions carry weight but I have to challenge some opinions to better understand that contribution.

Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #33 on: December 03, 2017, 05:43:58 PM »
You can't sidestep probability & statistics with theoretical independence -- probability & statistics don't care what anybody thinks.TM

MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #34 on: December 03, 2017, 08:39:11 PM »
As does random. It just remains what it is.

palestis

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #35 on: December 04, 2017, 03:11:32 AM »
The purpose of the trigger is to enable you to hit the target ONCE in a series of predetermined bets.
Once that happens the trigger expires, and you have to wait for a brand new set of conditions that form the trigger.
A trigger is not a license to a continuous stream of hits. Players who expect that, are in for a surprise.
And yes past spins have a lot to do what what happens now.
If that was not the case y do we always see a situation like the one depicted in the picture?
252 spins for the day and all the 50%  chances are pretty close to each other. The same goes for dozens and columns.
The are not exactly equally distributed, but they are close enough. And that's only 252 spins.
But definitely a far cry from what the anti-system proponents warn us about
In 252 spins you don't see 200 RED's and 52 blacks. Or 200 ODD and 53 even. You will never see that even if you take notes for the next 1000 years.  Y IS THAT?
And neither you will ever see  200-30-22 in the dozen/column distribution. Y IS THAT?
It's simple. In a random environment, all its elements have no choice but to follow their probability values. Due to variances that may not happens in a short term. But it will happen.
A trigger is designed to correct that. That is to ensure that in the short run you get a hit at least ONCE. It is the accumulation of single hits after a trigger that adds to a bigger profit at the end of the session.
Those who adhere to these principles and have the patience that goes with it, will always have a profitable roulette career ahead of them. Any short cuts or greedy behavior and they will be losers.

« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 03:16:27 AM by palestis »

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Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #36 on: December 04, 2017, 03:24:46 AM »
Though it may not be immediately apparent, DS 10-15 is clearly ahead of the rest.

MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #37 on: December 04, 2017, 04:58:40 AM »
A well rounded explanation Palestis.

Triggers like you stated are like a single shot rifle. Once the shot is fired (trigger is used), you have to reload (identify a new trigger) before you fire again. There are no guarantees you'll hit the target with every shot but at least you're aiming in the right direction.

Patience as you've stated is vital to realise profits.

Palestis, how would you go about identifying a double street to bet on using a trigger?

Reyth

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #38 on: December 04, 2017, 05:06:45 AM »
I know the Pales method is hit and run but according to my research, there ARE times that a bet selection will hit and remain in a triggered state, still having a significantly greater probability to hit than expectation.  This phenomenon can persist for multiple hits before it changes.  A good part of the time, a single hit will end it, though.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 05:12:45 AM by Reyth »

MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #39 on: December 04, 2017, 05:16:43 AM »
The trick is knowing when a trigger will produce multiple hits. One hit is fine per trigger.

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palestis

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #40 on: December 04, 2017, 08:16:08 AM »
Though it may not be immediately apparent, DS 10-15 is clearly ahead of the rest.
If DS 10-15 is ahead, ( in my picture example), which  are the other 5 DS's to compare it to?
You can't have 6 unique DS's if one of them is 10-15.
DS 7-12 includes street 10-11-12.  And DS 13-18 includes 13-14-15.
You can only have 6 unique DS's if you take 1-6 thru 31-36.
The example was to show that large groups ( like EC's and doz./columns), tend to come close to equilibrium even in 250 spins. Anti-systems proponents claim otherwise due to the random nature of roulette spins. If that's true where is it?
They have to show that sometimes in 250 spins (or close to that many spins), there was 200 black vs.50 red.
But a situation like this is nowhere to be found. Not even 150-100
« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 08:36:57 AM by palestis »

palestis

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #41 on: December 04, 2017, 08:34:27 AM »
Palestis, how would you go about identifying a double street to bet on using a trigger?
I really haven't worked on any system, that targets a single DS (6 numbers).
I have posted a single dozen system,  and it has been discussed in the recent past.
A trigger that centers on betting a single DS would be hard to find. It would require a long term observation before a trigger is formed.
I assume that if you observe a hot DS in recent spins, it is  very likely to repeat once more.
I think 10 bets (or stop if you hit), with a mild DS progression should be appropriate for a hot DS.
A good testing would be to take the most frequently appearing DS in the last 20-30 spins and see if it repeats once more in the next 10 spins. ( the 10 spins that you would bet on).
If in lengthy tests that DS repeats at least one  more time in the next playable spins, then you got a system in your hands.
I would avoid systems based on a single missing DS, because groups of 6 numbers like the DS is, are far more volatile than systems based on missing dozens or missing EC's

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MickyP

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #42 on: December 04, 2017, 09:50:53 AM »
True that a double street is more volatile than dozens due to the reduction in target numbers.

If one were to split the double streets into two parts, 3 and 3 random selection or use high/low for the split then work around playing two games simultaneously could this maybe present a less volatile game? I think it might work because the distribution into both halves is fairly balanced as noted in your reply. A trigger to what DS to wage on will have to be found.

Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #43 on: December 04, 2017, 10:20:28 AM »
The way I see it you don't believe that past spin history has an influence on future spins and thus don't believe in the trigger concept.

Correct, I don't.

Micky, think about it : roulette isn't like a card game in which cards are removed from the deck thus affecting the probability of the next draw. In roulette each pocket is "available", as it were, on every spin, therefore the chance of red or a dozen or whatever doesn't change between spins. How, then, can you justify the opinion that past spin history DOES influence future spins? I'm not trying to antagonise you here, I'm really interested in your answer.

It's one thing to have an intuition that "red has to catch up soon", but another to persist in believing that it will when it's pointed out time and time again why this is an error, and when actual results NEVER tally with that intuition.

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Mike

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Re: Triggers in Systems
« Reply #44 on: December 04, 2017, 10:56:47 AM »
Yes there is a control group for such test. And it's not guessing or assuming.
It is the undertaking of testing millions of spins.
You compare what happens after 10 blacks or 10 odds or 10 highs or as many of whatever the system involves vs. betting from the beginning.

Palestis,

I gather from this post that you're saying we are better off waiting for the 10 blacks, rather than "betting from the beginning".  I'm afraid this isn't the case. On average, you will make the same number of bets before losing 5 in row whether you wait for 10 or not. If you don't believe me ask Reyth to do a simulation. The only difference is that it costs you more in terms of time at the table when waiting for the 10 blacks.