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Author Topic: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !  (Read 1808 times)

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scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #45 on: August 12, 2017, 05:22:14 PM »

Mr.Perfect
You previously said that all numbers are as likely to hit as any other number, So why do you choose to bet some numbers in preference to other numbers ? Is it not because you expect your chosen numbers to have a better chance than the numbers you have not chosen ?  The numbers you chose is your "Bet Selection ".
 

scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #46 on: August 12, 2017, 05:27:34 PM »

If you let compute a random number row with a RNG  of about 10000 figures you can not proof the sequence is  random.A random computed  row of 300 dozens is not random.
I think you misunderstand what Random means, Dobbel
It only means that there is no set pattern .This means, as Mr.P said, that future winning numbers are unpredictable.
If you and he argue that Random does not exist then you are claiming certainty of prediction.
RANDOM RULES  ! Not the HE ..
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #47 on: August 12, 2017, 06:41:55 PM »
What exactly confuses you, Sceptics?  I'm being consistent in my desisions,  aren't l?  There is no " random" for me in roulette,  l didn't observe such a phenomenon yet. That's why my bets are what they are... l bet more then one number because more then one number has higher probability to hit in every individual spin. I'm not that precise in my prediction due to factors like ball jump dispercion and observational error...ets, so betting more then one number is both more logical and profitable.
    No need random wheel to reduce prediction to mere probability, there is dispersion for it... ball not know what time it should take , player doesn't know exact value of deceleration of the ball ( besides other things wich we are forced to estimate) , so uncertainty is always present to some degree. No need to be right each trial to profit either.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #48 on: August 12, 2017, 09:37:45 PM »
MrPerfect read the head of this topic. The discussion is about randomness and not about numbers. All short run rows are not random by the variances. In Dutch random has more than one definition.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #49 on: August 12, 2017, 11:27:49 PM »
 Dobbelsteen,  l really not care what it mean in dutch,  especially if it has many meanings. I red beginning of the topic and it's head, and? What should  l see there besides random statements? l already understood that the topic is not about numbers or anything else related to thema of forum in general... and so? Let Rinad speak what he wanna share freely! I personally do not mind, why would you?
 

scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #50 on: August 13, 2017, 12:13:15 AM »
Mr. Perfect.
You ask why I am confused.
Because;
a) You choose to bet some numbers while at the same time claiming that all numbers have the same chance. So your claim of consistency is clearly wrong here .
b) You claim that you never see Random in roulette and then give open a thread which shows random in action. All data needs interpretation and therein lies the problem. Your added tweak is different from Real’s whose tweak is different from Bebedictus’s tweak while Mike -another AP - is away finding a different tweak.
c) You talk glibly about the “ Physics “ of the wheel yet introduce Phases of The Moon in your calculations .What allowance do you make for the Moon’s intervention on wheel spins? 
d) You talk about biases in wheels . You are completely unaware that biases can exist in wheels but there needs to be extreme bias before it becomes exploitable . 
e ) You tell me that you can show me how to make a million and yet cannot do so for yourself .
It is you , Mr. Perfect , that is confused - and you have the gall to tell we Method players that we are wasting our time.
Stop your criticism of Method players because despite your bluster you don’t know more about roulette than we do .
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #51 on: August 13, 2017, 01:52:41 AM »
 Scepticus, you are clearly not confused, you are dumb on the purpose, it's ok as long as you do not forget what is the purpose.
    A) numbers have same chance to hit on "random" wheel, wich have not been found in nature.What's your problem with that?
   Your selective reading "(dis)ability" clearly interfere with logic of your posts, it's annoying.
 B)  And what is a name of the thread you are referring to? Probably you should read it one more time? ( it's annoying ).
   Obviously there are tweaks in what AP do, level of skill and experience is different. ...
 C) What's your problem with the moon and what mean " including moon phase in calculations" ?  How it affects the ball you can understand yourself, assuming you were present on lessons where they tolk physics at school( if you went there at all). I do not really care about such a thing, need for its monitoring can be easy elminated, far more simple to monitor the ball itself and what it does.
  D) You should stop to post statements about bias, your misunderstanding of the subjects is blatant.  This one in particular do not even deserve the answer.
 E) Methodical trying " not to lose" doesn't make you a "Method player". Neither following gambler fallacy should be called a " Method".
    If you already see screenshots l posted on other tread, estimate probability of you choosing positive expectation bet by gessing.
 I really can not imagine the way for you to do it anyhow consistently with your gessing. "Random" wheel would be a paradise for you, comparing with the deep hole you are now with your " methods". It's not criticism,  just stating the obvious. 

 

scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #52 on: August 13, 2017, 01:18:00 PM »

True to form Mr. Perfect, you still engage in  ridicule. Now I am dumb ! LOL
A) You Don’t believe that the winning numbers are Random.
So ALL wheels are biased ?
B)
“What is non-random and what it looks like.”
What youpost there can be explained by Random . The ball jumps hither and thither.
c)  You are “moonstruck”if you  think that moon phases have an effect on ball spins.Your Physics teacher will tell you that you have misunderstood his teaching .
d)  My view on this is the same as some others  such as Ed.Thorpe - and you ridicule him  ! LOL
E ) you misunderstood me here , I AIM to profit but my MAIN  AIM is NOT TO LOSE.
Strangely , thisis what most gambling professionals do. WHY ? Because if they lose their bankroll they are out of the game.So you are saying that they are ignorant too ? LOL

Every Method posted here is  based on a “ fallacy “ ?
Except AP !
Everyone on this forum who is not an AP is ignorant ! LOL

 

Sputnik

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #53 on: August 13, 2017, 01:37:09 PM »


Scepticus you just have to ignore and move on and keep up the good work.
Who care if some one mention the word gamblers fallacy or house edge as long we make money.

In the end is all about money and i love money and i love to win, so does words have no effect on me.
Don't get involved with nonsens and continue to do what you do best.

Don't let others effect you mood or feelings, you need to be sharp and in good mood when playing your daily sessions. If you get involved with to much debate about nonsense you will feel bad and it will effect family life, work among other things.

I can only speak for my self and i find a comfort zone when being part of discussion on public gambling forums.
Avoid and ignore things i know will become a fire if you share your opinion, better keep quit and know better then others then telling them how wrong they are.
Just a waste of energie that effect you.

 
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #54 on: August 13, 2017, 01:49:48 PM »
Sceps, roulette do not care what you belive , it exist in real, not in your imagination. There is no point for you engage in discussions where you can not back up your statements. 
  A) Wheels are not perfect, biases are imperfections of construction. These imperfections make some numbers to hit more then basic probability dictate, others less... it's considered "normal" even by the industry. 
 B) For you everything looks random, it's because you have no knolidge to access probability. Download a book and stop posting stupidities. Basic probability books are avaluable for free thru Google. 
 C) My physics teacher had me in high regard, l used to win competitions between schools in math and physics and had been awarded  grant to study in any uni of my choice by president of my country. 
D) Thorp has no idea what you think about the subject, neither you have an idea what he thinks. Pretending otherwise is stupidity.
E) Gambling professionals are casinos, they work is providing the game to gamblers for profit. There are professional players, you have no idea what they aim is. I do not mind to tell you, it's optimum exploration of playing opportunities. Posible win if you do everything correctly is much higher and probable  then possible loss, so it's not a problem.
   If you or anyone ignore real results from real wheels, existence of HE in the games, then by definition it's ignorance. Someone aiming not to lose can not win big due to the nature of the game.
 

scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #55 on: August 13, 2017, 11:47:20 PM »

It is you that writes a load of excrement Mr.Perfect.
All you deal in is TAWK  !
You forget that I offered to do my thing and for you to  do your own thing in YOUR local casino with all of it's wheels being biased - in YOUR opinion. You declined because you cannot  do what you claim o do .
You can read Thorp's view  online . What do you  offer to members in this forum ? Lots of hard work to reach the stage you are at which - in  your own words - is that you bet with small stakes . Some prospect ! Some Super- Duper strategy !
Still  I'll  heed  Sputnik 's advice  and leave it there. - and leave you to consult both the stars  and the moon !
The moon has an effect on the roulette wheel . LOL !
 
 

Rinad

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #56 on: August 14, 2017, 03:13:13 AM »


   as I went to the website about learning what is Randomness, I learned as they said that you have true Ramdomness that they offer, and that you simply get the randomness created by computers,ect....
those are facts. I believe them.
but what i wanted to know was; does it varies the outcomes of distributions when playing a number or 18 numbers?
what does it look like ?
because if there is a difference, how does it differs from a pseudo random generator ? is it less extreme in ways of repeats,streaks,ect....
to me this is vital information. if you play red and black as a example, you play on a live wheel, the ball is trow, and hit a pocket, it had 18 black pockets and 18 red pocket slots to pick from. that i know. and 37/38 numbers to pick from.
from a generator it could have 37/38 numbers as well to pick from, BUT THERE COULD BE 20 OF EACH OF ALL 37 NUMBERS. in order 20 number 1,20 number 2, ect......like the difference between a 1 deck of cards and a 8 deck shoe. how do I know.
well, from playing blackjack many years I know that the more shoes you play,4,6,8, the longer streaks can get.
now I am seeing the same phenomemon  between a live wheel and a random generator.
to me this explain what I have studied and experience when playing both.
FLUCTUATIONS HAPPEN IN BOTH INSTANCES YES, BUT LESS FREQUENTLY.
 big difference when I play my game in terms of knowing what to expect.
playing a single deck, I can lose 10,12,14 hands in a row,yes. 
BUT PLAYING A 8 DECK SHOE IT WILL HAPPEN MUCH MORE OFTEN.

I am using cards to help me in my explanation with roulette. a live wheel verses a generator.
hope that helps. these are my findings.

Rinad
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #57 on: August 14, 2017, 04:21:42 AM »
 Sceps, l really enjoy to read your posts. You are a great case for a clinical study. I give you an idea what brings me so much fun...
   Every time someone lies his brain has to create alternative reality backed up by connections between neirons ( brain sells). These alternative chains do accomulate the more such a person lie. Memory is not only stored in brain, but is duplicated on genetic level. It affects not only ability to remember of such an individual,  but induces errors on genetic code. This is one of main reasons for genetic degeneration. When bible says that it's a mortal sin, there is a reason for it.
   Every time you twist words of others, you lie. Every time you reject common logic, you lie. Even in this moment, while you are reading what l have written here, you think that it has nothing to do with you...you lie, worst thing of all is that you lie to yourself. You can not reject this fact, you simply feel it at a physiology level. Now you know what you are doing for yourself, will you stop? 
    You are so proud about spelling well in English.  I'm happy for you. Just for your information,  all normal people do use spelling correctors, if such an option is available... it's due to the simple fact that language have been rediculosly simplified. Children remember on genetical level how it should be and commit same "mistakes", misspell. ... think about this word. Spelling is a magic action, you know. World was created as a spell, if you give a credit to the bible of cause.  You can reject this truth if you wish as well. You can close your eyes to the fact that reform of language or spelling introduces changes ( errors) in genetic code and other fact as well: most popular professional occupation in your well spelling country is a care taker. So take care Scepticus.
     I really enjoy to read your posts.
   
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #58 on: August 14, 2017, 04:57:40 AM »
Rinad, you really have to decide what you are after... rng or real wheels. There is a huge difference between both, many differences in fact.  I'll try to list most common ones so you can decide better.
  1. Rng uses " perfect wheel model" as a basis.
 This model assume that each number has same probability to hit. On real wheel such a thing simply does not happen. At least l never witnessed it.
  2. On real wheels numbers do not have same probability to hit, due to physical reasons ( imperfections of construction or defects induced by use and maintenance ).
 3. Rng has no wheel or pokets where ball should stop, it has no ball either... it's a cod. As any cod it has glitches that may produce limits to the randomness of numbers generated. Not numbers themselves,  but the stream of the numbers. Some numbers will more likely to hit after some other numbers, or combinations of numbers will be more likely after combinations of numbers... need a software to study every particular rng.
  4. Similar things may happen on real wheel but their nature will be a bit different. Stream will more likely to have a run  (more frequent hits) of particular combinations of numbers or sectors of numbers. Nature of such runs will be periodical due to conditions affecting the wheel ( dominance of speeds, ball behaviors..ets).
 5. On real wheel you may want to pay closer attention to frequency of skips and consequtive hits of numbers or combination of numbers. On rng you may want to look to statistical limits of skips.
 6. Most easiest rng is much more random then most random real wheel l have ever seen.
   Hope it helps.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #59 on: August 14, 2017, 05:14:43 AM »
Forgot to mention... we need to trust rng to be " random". There were many cases that it wasn't.