Author Topic: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !  (Read 1205 times)

Rinad

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2017, 04:33:54 AM »


  Real,

a 6 deck shoe can have a strong bias. and the same goes to a size of lets said x amount of spins. you have to know that. I have played enough of them to know that.
so games are not always random as we think they are. some more then others. those are the ones that are more inpredictable, as you suggested.
I know that the house edge is in the "paid/off", and that never changes,I agree.

but biases are real. we experience them everyday in many games. people do take advantage of them when they show stability, and sometime fail short when they dont. not to acknowledge that is immature but that is okay. takes time to learn certain curves in gaming.
I use to strickly play hot tables in blackjack due to the non random shuffle exercise by the dealer and even the shuffle machine they are all using today.
now in roulette it is a little more inpredictable then cards but never the less you can take advantage of the tendencies that are showing over and over. we all have seen looking at a marquis patterns that return over and over, almost like clockwork. those are strong patterns because they are "stable", durable.

of course many times you jump in and they turn on you. but also many times you have a few more spins when they exercise the same tendencies. I have seen clearly many times series of singles mixed with twos lasting for very extended period of 60+spins with not a single serie of 3 blacks or reds at all.
that is just a example. it is there if you are aware of them being there of course.
then you have dozens following the same dozens over and over for long periods. on and on it goes.
so randomness does exist until it stops. it is what make the game so interesting. biases are real.

Best,
Rinad
 
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Real

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2017, 04:35:16 PM »
Rinad,

There are biased wheels.  That much is true.  However, you're referring to meaningless patterns/random noise in the data.   You're merely fooling yourself into believing that the patterns that see are real.


We all look for patterns, and we often find them where none really exist.

« Last Edit: July 07, 2017, 04:38:10 PM by Real »
 

Rinad

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2017, 12:55:20 PM »


   Real, your last statement; we often see patterns where none exist.

you mentioned "often", and I could not agreed more. notice you did not said :always.
so my point is. seeing the difference is what I am talking about.
biases do exist, and yes, if you are looking too hard for them sometime, you can make the mistake of "making them up". done it myself.
so to know the "real" from the fake is where it is . my experience tells me as a example that randomness from a live wheel produce different results then randomness from RNG.
I have tested enough methods using both to see that there is one.
fluctuations is one.

Rinad
 

scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2017, 04:06:52 PM »

Oh ! Guys ! Guys ! Come on . Random only means that there is no SET  patterns so what you are both seeing is PATTERNS but no SET  patterns.
Do PATTERNS exist ? Of course they do .but it depends on what you mean by patterns.
If you consider two spins as a pair then in ECs we have
AABB
BABA so we have 4 PATTERNS. of 2
and one of these  MUST appear  in the next 2 spins and subsequent series of 2 spins for evermore- barring a zero.
If considering Dozens or Columns  as Pairs we have
111222333
123123123
9 Patterns  one of which must happen on each subsequent 2 spins for evermore - barring  zeros.
So PATTERNS do exist but they are Random and Random is our main enemy and not the unfair odds .
 

Rinad

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #19 on: August 10, 2017, 05:07:03 PM »


  we are all good here buddy, just exchanging opinions.
I know what you are saying Scep , I do. my point is the same as you do. randomness does not mean that biases dont exist. patterns that show up over and over is what I think we can take advantage of. and of course they can stop the second you place a bet out there. but it still is a good play to make for at least one time, would you think?
the fact that set patterns exist help us to identify what is happening. that is it. no sure thing but we can sometime see that stable reoccurences are there to lure us into making a bet and taking a chance that the set patterns that are coming in bunches wont just stop the minute we jump in.
I am betting for continuances of the same. to all fairness I know that it may take a few tries before I see a profit, I get that. but when you hit a home run, and go up as you win, you can do very well.
just because some players over play them does not mean that other players can have better skills in knowing when to fold. I am guilty of those bad decisions, but with enough experiences through the years I know how to be carefull and not force a short bias.
same with all games by the way. Real is pointing out the fact that they can be misleading, and that is a good point. I am one that is saying; CAUTION AS YOU PLAY THOSE BIASES.
we are all maybe saying the same thing but without good balance we go in circles sometime.

Rinad
 

scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2017, 05:48:23 PM »

Rinad
What I am saying is that it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY  that an exploitable bias exists on modern wheels.
You and Real think otherwise .
The worth of any system / AP is does it show a profit or a loss.
A winner in roulette is someone who makes  a profit . A  loser is someone who loses , No excuses.
In that sense any   method thatprofits is valid .Until it loses overall !
Good luck with yours !

 

dobbelsteen

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #21 on: August 10, 2017, 08:39:28 PM »
I also believe that the newest devices have no bias. The problem is that also live wheels can be driven by tracking software . The outcome of the wheel is not random. See the patents of roulette software for chance games.
 

Rinad

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #22 on: August 10, 2017, 08:45:19 PM »


  well, if cheating occurs in real live wheels as well, what in the world are we doing playing roulette ???

Rinad
 
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scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2017, 09:55:25 PM »
Misunderstanding ? Imagination ? Conspiracy Theory ?
 

Rinad

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2017, 01:19:06 AM »


   question for anyone;

can you guys describe to me what are the differences in what you have been observing in all your years of playing, the difference in outcomes between SPINS FROM A LIVE WHEEL AND RNG ?
PLEASE TRY TO EXPLAIN IN WAYS THAT EVERY ONE CAN ANDERSTAND, NOT GOING TOO DEEP IF YOU CAN.
if you have not seen any difference please said so, it is okay.
I just would like to ear from players, things you have notice, can be anything, just share your observations, that is all that I am asking. thank you.
Rinad
 
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scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #25 on: August 11, 2017, 02:04:05 AM »

I seldom play RNGs . Anytime I did play them I found that I usually won quickly but then  headed South very quickly. Much more so than when playing live wheels so I CHOOSE to play live wheels.
This may suggest bias in RNG but I haven't played RNG enough to prove this so  I am inclined to think that there is no identifiable difference. Random results can throw up what we may consider anomalies  so I think we should not rush to judgement.
Other's experience may lead them  to think differently. Gambling only exists because of differing opinions.
 
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Rinad

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #26 on: August 11, 2017, 04:36:10 AM »


  Scepticus, thanks for replying . do you play airball at all ?  I do seem to notice longer streaks and more frequent with RNG then live wheels. I have seen streaks of 14, 16 blacks in a row, yes, but on Rx or Rng I see those much more often. and live wheel have always been more stable, meaning that anomalies dont happend as frequent.
but again they do happen. I got a hold of many systems in the past that were tested on live wheel by honest people only to find out how poorly they performed on rx. and then switching to live spins got much better results.
R.
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #27 on: August 11, 2017, 07:39:48 AM »
I wrote it before, hand and computer driven roulette cab be manipulate very easy. On this site Rob Groenen have described the patent of the mega player of Cammegh. In the topic Question and Answer I have published to URLs for looking to patents. After reading some patents I do not believe in fair roulette.

When I play on internet I use more than one methods. Perhaps I can throw the tracking program into disorder.

I am preparing a demo  where I play an RNG online roulette. Who is interested to participate such a demo??
 

Trilobite

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #28 on: August 11, 2017, 10:10:56 AM »
I'm keen to see your new demo.
 

scepticus

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Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #29 on: August 11, 2017, 10:23:02 AM »

Dobbelsteen
I have not read any of the patents you mention.  I think that these are designed to give information to the casinos rather than them cheating. Any reputable B&M or Online casino is unlikely to risk it's reputation   by cheating.
Why should they when they are already profitable ?
Rinard
I have played Airball but I haven't tried to analyse spins of Airball versus Live Wheels . Or RNG .
I take for granted that  winning numbers are Random and until someone gives proof that they are not I will continue to do so.
I think  improving  our Bet Selection is the way to go and, to be honest, I am not in the least worried about cheating. If I thought a casino was  cheating I would  not play there . Simple  !