### Author Topic: Roulette systems don't work  (Read 23104 times)

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#### Bayes

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #180 on: June 27, 2016, 08:17:19 PM »
Does anyone else think that the gamblers fallacy is only a theory, and there's merit in the concept that some numbers, or series of numbers, have a higher probabiity of showing than others?

But that has to do with bias, not independence. And strictly speaking, the gambler's fallacy is about consistency, so if you think that red is more likely after 10 blacks but also believe that outcomes are fair (meaning independent and unbiased), then you're contradicting yourself.

#### mr j

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #181 on: June 27, 2016, 08:23:55 PM »
Does anyone else think that the gamblers fallacy is only a theory, and there's merit in the concept that some numbers, or series of numbers, have a higher probabiity of showing than others?

But that has to do with bias, not independence. And strictly speaking, the gambler's fallacy is about consistency, so if you think that red is more likely after 10 blacks but also believe that outcomes are fair (meaning independent and unbiased), then you're contradicting yourself.

I'm not knocking your post Bayes but I notice the same thing a lot. When you guys (dont include me) talk about methods...the DOs and DONTs. Hot or cold etc., you guys always refer to the EC's. Why?

Ken

#### Bayes

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #182 on: June 27, 2016, 08:34:05 PM »
Ken, it's only because each side of an EC has the same chance of winning, so it's easier to see when one is supposedly "due". That's the only reason (for me anyway). The same principle applies to any bet but I think the point is made a little more clearly using the EC's  rather than saying a number is due when it hasn't hit for 300 spins, or whatever.

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#### dobbelsteen

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #183 on: June 27, 2016, 09:46:14 PM »
GF belongs to gamblers.Every experience player knows ,hecan not predickt the outcome of the next spin.
A player expect a hit within his betting selection .
He start betting after a trigger

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#### Bebediktus

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #184 on: June 28, 2016, 07:41:26 AM »

The AP players claim the  edge. They say to play profitable but they can not prove it, because they cannot show their live method on internet.

I play with my proven strategy in a B&M casino and on internet.. When I offer a demonstration on the internet, they are not at home
Such talk simply show that you are not players, or say - play is not your bussines and if you play then simply play for fun.
If you will be serious player than you will  try to find and learn wining methods and not talk, that
Quote
they cannot show their live method on internet.
In internet are not one place where you himself can simulate VB play and look which will be advantage and compare results with your play.
You simply not know where that is possible to do and talk nonsenses....

#### Real

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #185 on: August 19, 2017, 11:48:57 PM »
My Tally Counter.  You can run several of them at a time if you are tracking the count of different events.

Here is a Successive Sequence From HeckTM

It doesn't look like much until we notice that it extends for over 500 spins and a balance swing of 2500+ units!

I only just barely lost my profit for a brief time and had to go up and down in the recovery levels, locking in my recovery profits, attacking to mitigate previous losses and dealing with false recoveries & repeated dropdowns.

3000 units would more than cover all the fluctuations.

At around spin 3000 we can see a full progression loss with raised chips; a 1:101 coups event, which illustrates why having a high-percentage progression win rate is so important.

If we look at the sequence from about spin 1500 to around spin 3000 and then compare it to the sequence from around spin 3050 to around spin 3300, it illustrates that progressions DO work; the incline difference is due completely to the progression.

This is why surfing skills are so important -- controlling the timing and amount of the progression based on game events as they unfold.

This is what the IDG means when he says, "I sure am good at roulette!" (currently holding a 200,000+ balance, up from 1700 and over an almost 2 year timeframe); he calls it "scrapping" and has faced very many drawdowns, successfully reversing them all.

Reyth,

Up as you lose progressions are very inefficient and they don't make sense mathematically.

1. You initial bet must be very small so it prevents you from making any real money. Since the initial bet must be so small your unit bet is very small when you hit a lucky streak which in turn limits your win to puny amounts of money
2. You have to risk virtually your entire bankroll just for a puny win, which mathematically isn't logical.
3. There's no such thing as an up as you lose progression that can win consistently over a long period of time.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2017, 12:03:45 AM by kav »

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#### Real

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #186 on: August 20, 2017, 12:17:48 AM »
My Tally Counter.  You can run several of them at a time if you are tracking the count of different events.Here is a Successive Sequence From HeckTM.  It doesn't look like much until we notice that it extends for over 500 spins and a balance swing of 2500+ units!  I only just barely lost my profit for a brief time and had to go up and down in the recovery levels, locking in my recovery profits, attacking to mitigate previous losses and dealing with false recoveries & repeated dropdowns.  3000 units would more than cover all the fluctuations.At around spin 3000 we can see a full progression loss with raised chips; a 1:101 coups event, which illustrates why having a high-percentage progression win rate is so important.If we look at the sequence from about spin 1500 to around spin 3000 and then compare it to the sequence from around spin 3050 to around spin 3300, it illustrates that progressions DO work; the incline difference is due completely to the progression.This is why surfing skills are so important -- controlling the timing and amount of the progression based on game events as they unfold.  This is what the IDG means when he says, "I sure am good at roulette!" (currently holding a 200,000+ balance, up from 1700 and over an almost 2 year timeframe); he calls it "scrapping" and has faced very many drawdowns, successfully reversing them all.
Reyth,Up as you lose progressions are very inefficient and they don't make sense mathematically.1. You initial bet must be very small so it prevents you from making any real money. Since the initial bet must be so small your unit bet is very small when you hit a lucky streak which in turn limits your win to puny amounts of money2. You have to risk virtually your entire bankroll just for a puny win, which mathematically isn't logical.3. There's no such thing as an up as you lose progression that can win consistently over a long period of time.

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#### Real

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #187 on: September 07, 2017, 07:08:05 PM »
I have to make this quick note because I have to go and I don't want to forget:

There is only so much space on the felt and therefore statistically there MUST be a confluence of activity in ONE area more than any other it MUST happen because it cannot NOT happen because the odds are too great for it to NOT happen.

This concept is an amazing way to think about roulette geographically.  When we merge the word geography and statistics, what word do we have?

You're trying to make roulette into something that it is not.  The wheel is beaten by studying the wheel, not the layout.

#### Real

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #188 on: September 08, 2017, 01:02:46 AM »
If you can't overcome the house edge, then you will inevitably become a permanent loser after enough bets have been placed.  The house edge is much larger and all consuming than the variance of the game overtime.
Anyone that claims otherwise is one or possibly all of the following...

1. Naive and doesn't gamble much.
2. Sucks at math.
3. Delusional.
4. Selling a scam.

#### Real

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #189 on: October 14, 2017, 12:54:48 AM »
If you feel that there's any merit whatsoever to the method/system then you need to go back and read on the history of the game and basic probability.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2017, 01:13:45 AM by kav »

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #190 on: October 14, 2017, 10:07:56 AM »
Systems are very good idea ( it's just money management and exploration strategy), provided that they are designed on the wheel that gonna be played.
General focus of the systems is misleading. .. it should provide optimal exploration of play opportunity  ( wich depends on wheel/ ball itself).
Target for system should be proper bet selection ( biased numbers, limit on distances. ..ets), this way system play is not a gambler fallacy but a tool to take more money in less time.

#### Real

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #191 on: October 23, 2017, 07:16:22 AM »
Sorry to tell you guys this, but keeping stats on and calculating the sd on the red/black is an embarrassing and  goofy waste of time.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 07:18:26 AM by Real »

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #192 on: October 23, 2017, 04:11:20 PM »
So there is a difference when betting a dozen- 12 numbers- using the layout  and betting 12 numbers on the wheel ? Aren't the probabilities the same - 12 chances from 37 chances ?

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #193 on: October 23, 2017, 08:00:37 PM »
Probabilities of these 2 events are not the same. Reason is simple - wheels are not perfect.  It will depend ofcause if you are able to predict that sector of 12 numbers correctly, be it by vb or bias...  because in general, for non predictive player, betting on a dousen is more " sequre"

#### scepticus

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##### Re: Roulette systems don't work
« Reply #194 on: October 23, 2017, 08:24:39 PM »
A wheel can be imperfect yet not capable of exploitation.  That is the fact that the AP in this  forum ignore. Yes, we need to predict the dozen more than it's Expectation but you  are wrong to claim that this can only be done by VB or Bias.