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Author Topic: Positive Progression Analysis  (Read 4810 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #60 on: October 08, 2017, 03:35:46 PM »
Hahah Dobble is a short run session expert! :D

"short term sessions do not have the features of a long term session..."
 

Sputnik

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #61 on: October 08, 2017, 03:36:51 PM »


One selection method and one progression - same as all other methods on this forum - is that good or bad?

Allow me to ask one question - if you have a three step marty 124 you need to win seven times to break even.
Everything above that is pure profits because one day you will lose all three attempts and wipe out all your profits

So my question?
How are you going to keep your winnings and not give them all back to the casino using one selection method with one progression

Assume you progression total cost is 300 units, then you need to win 300 units just to break even, what a waste of time and difficult to win that much before the progression fail or should i say the selection method fail or should i say both fail

I don't want to offend anyone i just find it boring reading the same old story over and over again.
One selection method and one progression

I play to win and keep my money and not give it all back to the casino, but i have never read any one explain how to do just that
It is naive to think that a selection method with one progression will make you a winner

This is one reason why all testing is a waste of time when you test one selection method with one progression
We know what will happen before it happens
You will get negativ results and the method will bust

So what do you all hope for, that the you will make so much money before the method fail so you can start over again, that will never happen or work in real life my opinion.
Many times i talk with others who say the same thing, the problem is not winning for weeks, the problem is when you lose you give all the money back to the casino or keep a tiny profit that is nothing comparing to how much you have been playing

I can easy illustrate this with one clear example

Try to win two session out of three on regular basis where the win target is equal or overcome the loss limit for one losing session

Cheers
« Last Edit: October 08, 2017, 03:43:42 PM by Sputnik »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #62 on: October 08, 2017, 03:51:01 PM »
Take your profit and run. In the short run every player has his winning events. Take a break and start again after a virtual loss. Only with a betting selection ,you can discover  virtual loss events.  Winn and loss events fluctuate as black and red events. In the short run mode there is  no equilibrium or one mean.
 
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Scarface

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #63 on: October 08, 2017, 07:42:54 PM »
Sputnik, I agree with everything you said here.  What do you think about betting a flat rate percentage?  Like 2 % of total bankroll.  If variannce is on your side, then bets can climb exponentially...but if you have a bad run, bets gradually lower to the table minimum.

The total potential losses would be minimum, while the potential gains could continue to increase on good runs.

I have not tested this, but thinking about the worse case red/black for 200 spins.  I think it's 135/65.  If we were betting on the losing side, gradually lowering the bet to 2% bankroll...the losses can not exceed a certain amount.  BUT if we were increasing wagers to 2% bankroll and we're on the winning side, the gains would be much more.

Losses on worse case < Gains on best case
 
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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #64 on: October 09, 2017, 12:58:31 AM »
The progression/money management is the easiest part of gambling.  Too much time is wasted talking about it, and second guessing it.

If you have the edge, then (edge/expectancy) x (confidence level) = your bank to bet ratio. 

In a pinch, just bet one percent of your bankroll at each spin.

If you don't have an edge, then...good luck.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #65 on: October 26, 2017, 09:14:49 PM »
I can easy illustrate this with one clear example

Try to win two session out of three on regular basis where the win target is equal or overcome the loss limit for one losing session

This is a good benchmark but it is not complete imo; it should also include the recovery session.

Try to win three session out of three on a regular basis where the win target is:

A) Equal or greater than the loss limit for one losing session

OR AT LEAST

B) Greater than the recovery required to get back to par
« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 11:51:56 PM by Reyth »
 

Rinad

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #66 on: October 27, 2017, 12:37:49 PM »


   I like to play a session as being part of a bigger session, and the bigger session part of a bigger block,ect...
so that in case I lose one session, I know it is like losing one bet. if I dont I will lose sight of the bigger session and may find myself a loser even know it is only a temporary set back. the reason why so many lose is the lack of anderstanding of that principal.
any progression can have its merit.
they can all work at the right time and lose at the wrong time.
playing very flat and within a percentage of your bank, increasing up as you win slowly can be a very powerfull formula, but you need lots of patience to do that, and it can only be done with the bigger picture in mind.
maybe it is just that easy, no rabbits out of the hat, plain and simple.
the solution is that we cant let ourselves be distracted by other events.
even if I was to play a session that requires 2 wins to make up for 1 loss, I must be prepared to lose 7 sessions in a row, at one point and time, because it will. most of us quit as soon as it happens if we did not make a profit before it happens, while this is just the time not to.
knowing the extremes of any methods is what enable us to keep going when we need to.
I read of this poker pro that did something unheard before. he started playing online with .05 cents units building his bank from 50$ to 20k.
he said he took him a incredible amount of time, was nerves wracking because many time right after he crossed his treshold to play a higher unit he would then lose and had to go back and play .10,then another 20 hours ,then .50, then 1.00, ect....
I tried it myself and could not handle the nerv/wracking part of it.  but the point is, maybe not to that extreme we need to play in that fashion, not losing sight that after so many plays, we will see the fruits of our labor.
if not we will give up to quickly, guaranty.
everything that you have coming will come, and that is a sure thing.
years ago when I was much younger and stubborn I sit at a blackjack table for 18 hours straight.
my system was easy, at the beginning of every shoe if I had won the first 2 hands I would bump up my bet to a much bigger unit trying to capitalyze on a hot "shoe".
it took for ever before it came. I went down hundreds and hundreds of dollars, could not beleive my bad luck.
surely I thought "I must win 5,7 hands in a row at some point?
and right before I decided to get up and call it quit, it HAPPENED !!!
it was 5, then 7, and then more streaks of wins, got what was coming, and happy I stuck with it. back then a 2k bank was a lot for me, and I would of lost 90% of it if I did not kept on.
we have a lot coming, long streaks of wins and losses, play small when losing , much bigger when you win, you wont regret it, no matter what progression you use. just use one you can go up when winning, that is all.
God bless
Rinad
 
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Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #67 on: October 27, 2017, 03:14:54 PM »
I couldn't handle the nerve-wracking of poker either.  I quit with a profit.

I isolate each recovery tier into its own session so I always have less wins required to "win" the session than expectation for a single loss.  Then its "down as I win" to lock in profits:


The most refreshing part is that the first single loss gives me the greatest gap versus expectation; this helps my mental game, to know that my recovery will be much quicker than the time I put in to achieve the loss.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2017, 03:28:20 PM by Reyth »
 
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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #68 on: October 29, 2017, 01:26:25 AM »
Progressions are meaningless without a winning bet selection.  Toooooo much time is wasted trying to find "just the right progression."
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #69 on: October 29, 2017, 09:38:30 AM »
BJ has also a hous edge of about 2%. BJ players claim a HE of about 0,6% , if the play the well known strategy. My computer program cannot agree that claim.
What you have to do is, play BJ in the fun mode with 1 unit and do not buy with 12 .Count the number of executive loss .I played BJ as follows. Bet  flat one unit till you are 3 down and the increase your bets.Start with 4 units to win back the lost 3 units. Martingale works perfect. I never lost a sessie but the game is very dull.