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Author Topic: Positive Progression Analysis  (Read 3560 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #30 on: October 04, 2017, 09:35:09 PM »
Do you think its possible to win with positive progressions on a biased wheel?
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #31 on: October 04, 2017, 09:56:09 PM »
Progression is just a tool. It has to be manually balanced for every individual case.
   Do you know wich way to bet is most profitable? I was surprised when l discovered it... well l didn't discover it, Bebedictus told me.
    It's a flat bet. Just... to use its full potential , need to bet on table maximum.  Not fun, right???
   Progressions are used for 2 things:
.............1. Arrive to table maximum
..............2. Have some leverage extra, if you are let's say comfortable with 1/2 table maximum.
 

Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #32 on: October 04, 2017, 10:06:01 PM »
So you don't have to worry about variance then?  Just flat bet the maximum.  And so you are only betting one number?  Because 2 numbers will exhaust profit in just 18 spins, right?
« Last Edit: October 04, 2017, 10:11:06 PM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #33 on: October 04, 2017, 10:34:18 PM »
Really wird logic...
  Trick is to bet numbers with positive expectation. More of these you bet- less variance you gonna have.
 Point of my previous post was that progression is not solution to all problems. However, specific progression ( designed for specific situation) can be used to bet optimally. It's just a tool.
   Try put a neil on piece of wood using hammer and your legs only. You will understand that not only tool, but proficiency of its user matters as well.
 
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Scarface

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #34 on: October 04, 2017, 10:42:46 PM »
How about combining a negative progression with a positive progression?  A negative progressions is usually really bad...but when hits come after a long stretch, they seem to come in clusters.

I've been doing a little testing on this, combining a parachute progression with a parlay positive progression.  I'll post more about this later after more testing
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #35 on: October 04, 2017, 11:36:43 PM »
This would be interesting,  if you know for how many consequtive spins your bet can miss.
 
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Scarface

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2017, 01:25:25 AM »
This would be interesting,  if you know for how many consequtive spins your bet can miss.

If you are only betting 1 unit and parlay the next bet, you can actually get to 1332 spins with only a single win to break even, worse case.  (37×36).

But I'd prefer not to get down to a single number.  Rather keep it at least 4 numbers for the lowest. 

The General idea is to start off with at least half the numbers, and gradually reduce numbers, then parlay after a hit
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 01:27:50 AM by Scarface »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #37 on: October 05, 2017, 01:49:02 AM »
Wow that sound like the Talos method.  It sounds impossible to lose.  Having been in a similar position many more times than I'd like to remember, are  you sure your calculations are correct?
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 04:33:31 AM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #38 on: October 05, 2017, 09:43:50 AM »
Omg!!! 1300 spins with 1 hit? It's like 4 days without hit and one hit at the end..   I would probably die just during betting process from the stress. If l wouldn't die from betting ( highly improbable ), l would die from winning!!!
   Many people die when 2WW finish,  they were so happy, that heart didn't overcome it.
   Such ideas of betting should have a label of worning for associated health danger for its user ( like siggaretes).
    I wish there would be a " dislike" option.
 
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Scarface

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #39 on: October 05, 2017, 12:23:14 PM »
Actually it's 2 hits in a row.  If at anytime you get 2 hits in a row it will win.  I used a single number as an example.  Bet 1 unit on a single and win 36....parlay your winnings plus 1 unit, win 1332 units.  So, if you get 2 hits in a row in 1332 spins you win....just betting 1 unit and parlaying

But, like you guys pointed out, it's not practical to play that many spins in a single session.  I was just showing how powerful the parlay bet can be.

It's more practical to start off with more numbers.  Let's say we're betting 1 unit on high/low, parlaying winnings.  2 consecutive hits wins 6 units.  So as long as you can get 2 consecutive hits in 6 spins, you're in the money.

If you don't get the 2 hits in the first 6 spins, bet 1 unit on fewer numbers...maybe the dozen.  2 consecutive hits on a dozen pays out 12 units.

2 hits on a double street pays out 42 units

2 hits on a quad pays 90 units

2 hits on a street pays 156.  Etc, etc

This is all based on 1 unit bets.  We could say if we don't get a win on high/low in the first 6 spins, raise the base wager to 2 units...now, instead of betting dozens, stay on high/low.  This would allow us to play high/low for 3 more spins...so all we need is 2 consecutive hits in 11 spins on an even chance bet.

Spin. W/L.  Total win/loss
Bet 1 unit on high
1 L -1
2 L -2
3 L -3
4 W -4
5 L -5
6 L -6
Bet 1 unit on dozen
7 L -7
8 W -8
9 W +3
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 12:28:32 PM by Scarface »
 

Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #40 on: October 05, 2017, 03:40:21 PM »
Ok, I am confused because unlike Mr. Perfect I AM willing to spin 1300 times!  Does your progression actually allow for 1300 betting events?

The Talos method allowed for profit within 6 wins, where he used a divisor.
 

Sputnik

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #41 on: October 05, 2017, 04:58:42 PM »


I don't understand this concept - assume i aim to win two in a row and start with the even money and after that - if losing - parachute for smaller locations with higher payment

Now if i would use FTL then i would need three hits for one location to repeat - that is pretty rare for even money, dozen, line, corner, street, split, single

And if i would not use FTL as selection method then i would chasing sleepers and would be pretty rare getting a hit twice in a row after a sleeping location

My golden egg or recommendation is to do it my way
Apply the binomial probability distribution for each location to equal a even money bet and then aim to win twice

Then it become more a feeling for the day what winning location you want to use

Cheers
 
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Scarface

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #42 on: October 05, 2017, 06:35:06 PM »
Reyth, if you have 2 consecutives hits anywhere in 1332 spins you win...and this is only betting 1 unit and parlay the next bet.

For example, bet 1 unit on Red and you win 2 units...now bet your winnings + 1 unit.  If you hit again, you win 6 units. 

Here is a basic parachute starting from even bets down to single number (betting only 1 unit and parlay winnings)

Even bets -bet up to 6 spins
Dozen bet - bet up to 6 spins
Double street -bet up to 30 spins
Quad - bet up to 48 spins
Street - bet up to 66 spins
Split - bet up to 186 spins
Single - bet up to 990 spins

Total spins:  1332

 

Reyth

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #43 on: October 05, 2017, 08:51:11 PM »
Ok, so its 996 spins on a single number to win TWICE IN A ROW; that is very close to grail if its based on an average but it is most likely much worse than that.

I do know that an EC will be expected to miss up to 55 times in a row before hitting twice (once in a lifetime event and I can print out a distribution chart showing the odds for each level of miss 54, 53 ... 43...1 etc.).

Obviously with each movement inward on the felt the number of misses in a row grows BUT we also need to consider the cumulative effect of each spin, right?

Regardless of the fact that we would be chasing sleepers, if we can get a large enough CUMULATIVE number of spins, WE WILL WIN.

Like Talos, we must NOT bet the colors or even/odd -- we MUST bet HIGH/LOW because it is the only way to gain the cumulative spins.

Btw, whats the total bankroll after the 1332 spins?
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 08:55:03 PM by Reyth »
 

Scarface

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Re: Positive Progression Analysis
« Reply #44 on: October 05, 2017, 09:42:33 PM »
The bankroll needed for 1332 spins is the same...1332 units.  The parlay allows for a quick recovery. 

If you get no hits till spin 1330, you'd be -1330.  But at spin 1331 you hit a single you win 36 units...parlay the winnings plus 1 unit on the next bet will net 1332 units (36×37).

Interesting data on the even bets.  So, 55 spins is the worse you've seen before 2 even bets hit back to back.  I'll see if I can come up with a parlay progression for this as soon as I get time  :)
 
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