Play roulette at Royal Panda

Author Topic: Law of Large Numbers  (Read 289 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Scarface

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 81
  • Thanked: 68 times
Law of Large Numbers
« on: September 30, 2017, 03:30:18 AM »
The Law of Large Numbers says the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value.  This is important because it "guarantees" stable long term results for the averages of random events.

We all know from experience that we are very unlikely to see the law of Large Numbers play out in a single 100 spin session.  If you're lucky, variance will be on your side and you walk away a winner.

Although in 100 spins, anything can happen...in 1000 spins we'll see results that are more in line with the expected value.  So, how can we use this to our advantage?

Let's say we bet a dozen for 100 spins, and get 20 hits.  The expected value should be 33 hits.  Now, for the next 100 spins, pick the 8 coldest number from that dozen.  The next 100, pick the 6 coldest.  The next 100, the 4 coldest...etc,etc.  We can even add 1 chip each session as we play fewer numbers. 

I'm thinking this should work, because variance can't be negative every single session.  If it wouldn't, that would mean the Law of Large Numbers is not true!  From every graph I've seen, things tend to start equaling out percentage wise way before 1000 spins!  In most cases, after the first 100. 

This is basically a parachute progression for each sesaion, instead of each spin.  A session is 100 spins up to 10 sessions which is 1000 spins.  Doesn't have to be on the same wheel or the same day....the averages should still get the same results.  I know this is a long term strategy.  But can it work?  If not, why?



 
The following users thanked this post: kav

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3645
  • Thanked: 1138 times
Re: Law of Large Numbers
« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2017, 04:08:01 AM »


Here is an example of 2 DS that remained cold for over 5000 spins (19-24 & 22-27).  I have found that when chaining sessions together "numbers tend to do what they have done" and this tendency gets stronger, the longer the session is.

Compare that to DS 31-36 which is a hot selection, big difference.

So maybe cold numbers is not the best approach?

Some have pointed out that the Law of Large Numbers only "evens out" because the sample size is so large that very large gaps are relatively small.

I think both Kav and Dobble have indicated that to play cold numbers as effectively as possible, its best to play as large a selection as possible. 
« Last Edit: September 30, 2017, 04:32:50 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

dobbelsteen

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1417
  • Thanked: 377 times
Re: Law of Large Numbers
« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2017, 08:54:52 AM »
Before answering this question, you must define LARGE. Large depends on the number of possibilities of the chance.For an EC large is more than 250 spins but for the numbers is large more than 1M spins.
This means for a player that every new session is a short run session. The law of the large numbers has no value. 2,7% loss is a myth.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Scarface

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 81
  • Thanked: 68 times
Re: Law of Large Numbers
« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2017, 02:34:06 PM »
Thanks for your input!  So, I'm assuming both you guys would agree that 1000 spins would not be a large enough value for the Law of Large Numbers to play out to expected value?  I do not play this way, but just wondering if it would work.  I use to always play cold numbers, but ended up having more losing sessions than winning.  Now I play a small number of hot numbers, and win more than lose.

What do you guys think about the idea of progressions on each session?  I've got a few systems that I've tested for for over 5000 spins, each session was 200 spins each.  From what I've seen in testing, it is very rare to have more than 2 losing sessions in a row....I think 3 was the max I've seen.  Seems like adding 1 chip to the wager every new session would win overall.

Basically, a Martingale progression bUT on each new 200 spin session....not each spin
« Last Edit: September 30, 2017, 02:37:01 PM by Scarface »
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3645
  • Thanked: 1138 times
Re: Law of Large Numbers
« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2017, 02:48:34 PM »
Ya, 1000 spins is nothing.  There is so much variance within such a small sample.  Things seem to calm down around 1M spins and even further solidity gained in the multiple millions of spins.  So like Harry J says, we play "the peaks and valleys".

Glad to hear that you are using hot numbers.

No doubt the recovery is the key to any system because it it WILL be necessary in order to survive long-term (I just had the most amazing failure where the 3 hottest DS' [12 total numbers] on the board all just gapped at the same time!).  I think the goal is to maximize our gain while at the same time minimize our exposure as much as possible.  When behind, gain is like profit.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2017, 04:27:14 PM by Reyth »
 

Scarface

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 81
  • Thanked: 68 times
Re: Law of Large Numbers
« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2017, 05:21:37 PM »
Yes, playing hot numbers have definitely improved my success rate!  I normally play at a B&M casino for 8 hours straight, getting about 400+ spins in. 

Took awhile to learn this, but whatever is happening at the table will usually continue to happen within a short period of time.  When I played cold numbers, they would for the most part stay cold.  At the same time, I would see the same hot numbers hit over and over for several hours!  Sure it will change at some point in the long run....but I'm not playing thousands of spins  :) .  So, I'll keep sticking with the hotties
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Rinad

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 225
  • Thanked: 295 times
Re: Law of Large Numbers
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2017, 03:35:15 PM »


  Scarface, I always play hot numbers and hot everything else. like you my game changed years ago when I gave up chasing cold numbers, regardless of probabilties. yes going up a little on your base bet after losing a session, (not just a bet) is the way to go.
I have mentioned that if one was to play a progression, to do it with "sessions instead of bets" make more sens.
but to parlay a session upon winning is what pays well since just like "hot numbers" are hot because of the effect of clustering, "so are sessions".
the advantage is that you have so much more "up sides" playing that way. specialy going up after that first win after previous losses, but only if you are behind.
they are methods when you know that losing 3 consecutive sessions in a row is so rare that it makes total sens to move up in your base bet.
I share your ideas on targeting single numbers that are part of a dozen that sendenly "wake up as well". just know that you cant "buy a win", like a good friend told me, so patience is the key.
God bless,

Rinad
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Reyth, Scarface