Author Topic: Win With Progressions  (Read 204 times)

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Scarface

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Win With Progressions
« on: September 19, 2017, 12:46:29 AM »
Can a progression overcome the house edge?  I'm not talking about raising your bet after every loosing spin.  I'm thinking more of a long term slower progression.

In the short term, anything is possible.  Extreme negative variance can be pretty common in less than 100 spins.  But what about 1000 spins?  Things seem to even out like they should with more spins.

What if we use a progression in sessions only.  Let's call a session 100 spins.  Suppose we're betting 4 numbers only.  This should hit about 1 in 9 times.  After 100 spins, determine how much you have lost.  Maybe we only had a hit rain of 1 in 25.  So, after 100 spins start a new 100 spin session but add a chip this time.  In the long run, we will get the expected hit rate.  So at some point, at least 1 session will have positive variance.  Seems like this would work.  Haven't tested, just wanted to see what you guys thought.


 
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Real

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2017, 12:56:22 AM »
Quote
Can a progression overcome the house edge?

Scarface,

I wish it could, but the facts are that a progression can not even make a dent in the house edge.

If you look at it logically, then it's easy enough to see why.  Since the long term expectation is negative, then every bet amount that you multiply times that negative expectation still produces a negative value.  For example you can't multiply any positive number times a negative number and produce a positive outcome.
 

kav

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2017, 12:58:12 AM »
Do you ask the general question if it is a good idea to use progressions or are you asking for comments about the specific method you posted?
Btw, I don't understand why you want to overcome the house edge. Since there are 37 numbers and you are paid for 36 the house edge is there no matter how you play. It is a rule of the game. What does it mean to "overcome the house edge"?

Please see also:
Can Roulette house edge be reduced?
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 01:02:11 AM by kav »
 

Reyth

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2017, 02:23:41 AM »
Variance is far worse than the house edge (despite Real's opinion on how the math works out) and crushes expectation; i.e. the long run when you get your expected hit rate, exceeds all of our bankrolls put together.

A progression alone is not enough to defeat negative variance (our real enemy); it is a powerful tool that can even be the foundation for an overall method, but all progressions by themselves, FAIL (practically speaking).
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 02:25:54 AM by Reyth »
 
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Real

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2017, 03:21:01 AM »
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Variance is far worse than the house edge (despite Real's opinion on how the math works out) and crushes expectation; i.e. the long run when you get your expected hit rate, exceeds all of our bankrolls put together.

Reyth,

It's not an opinion.  Claiming that is is an opinion is like claiming that 2 + 2 = 4 is only an opinion and that it could equal five.  It's absurd.    What you should claim is that you don't comprehend the math involved.  Such comments are the reason that other gambling forums poke fun at roulette forums.

My recommendation:  Learn the facts.  Learn some of the math, trust the mathematicians.  Advance. 

Why is it that people that don't grasp basic probability are so certain that everyone that does comprehend it is wrong?

« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 03:51:37 AM by Real »
 

Reyth

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2017, 04:18:03 AM »
Sorry I reviewed your math and of course its not the math that I have a problem with, its the way you apply the math to suit your own purposes. 

Maybe that its that you are so convinced that system players are unable to make successful choices that it simply didn't occur to you to figure in their profit along with your projections.

Your projections are a biased bootstrap.  Its like saying that all businesses will go broke because of taxes, to use Kav's example, but instead its really only businesses that perform poorly will go broke. 

You fail to make that important distinction.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 04:21:59 AM by Reyth »
 
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Real

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2017, 04:25:38 AM »
Reyth,

It's people like you that drive people that grasp the basic probability and math nuts.



  I suspect that you could learn it, but you simply choose the lazy route, and choose perhaps to believe that all mathematicians are part of some vast conspiracy.   Unfortunately it turns people like me away, while shaking our heads in disbelieve.  It's like the flat earth nonsense over and over.  Break the cycle.  Read, learn, and advance.  I know you're smarter than this.  I suspect that you're being purposefully headstrong/obtuse.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 04:42:06 AM by Real »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2017, 09:22:43 AM »
The house edge is unbeatable by progression. For the French roulette the HE can vary between 1,35 and 2,7%.
This depends on the bet. Every number bet has a DTOP and the result will always stabelized at -2,7% .

Only methods can beat the HE. Methods with progression can be look as a HG. See the performance of SSB.
 
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Scarface

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2017, 04:01:42 PM »
Maybe I should have worded this a little different.  And left out the "house edge". 

I'll use dozens as an example.  In 100 spins, flatbet 1 unit on dozen 3.  Statistically, we should get around 33 hits....but we all know that in 100 spins anything can happen.  We might get a hit rate of 22%.

But in 1000 spins, we're probably gonna see pretty close to that expected rate of 33%.  So, that means some sessions will have a greater rate, maybe 45%.  At this point we can profit more because of positive variance and higher wagers.

 

scepticus

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2017, 04:40:48 PM »

So, scarface, you think Progressions  are the way to go ?
Whether you make Flat Bets  or Progressions you must  choose the winning number so your Bet Selection has priority.
Those  who think that the House Edge beats the Bet Selection in all cases don’t understand what  the word “ Gambling “ means .
Sorry , but that’s a fact !

 
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Reyth

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Re: Win With Progressions
« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2017, 07:57:40 PM »
You can test it by running 1000 spins and comparing the performance of each Dozen.  Be cognizant of the GAPS as well as the final results.