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Author Topic: Why hot numbers become hot  (Read 688 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2017, 01:47:56 AM »
Now there is the REAL we all wish we knew more often and love! :D

I love statements like this:

No, the deviation from the norm...the standard deviation can and often times will indeed tell you that a number or sections is indeed abnormal and biased.

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Not all defects will have a local effect... where the defect is viewed, but may have a resulting effect on numbers that are far away from the actual defect. 

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If the deviation is small, then you must track whatever it is that you testing for more trials...after which the sd should grow larger.  The more trials you test, the larger the standard deviation should grow.  As should the chi square.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2017, 01:52:27 AM by Reyth »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2017, 09:27:58 AM »
It's a very valuable post of him, l wish l could find more of these when l was starting. :).
 
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scepticus

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2017, 10:11:53 AM »

Mc Coy
 " Random" only means " without a set pattern " so most wheels produce Random numbers. You are unlikely to find a wheel in a well run  casino that is sufficiently biased to be exploitable by the punter. The AP in this forum exaggerate the level of bias. 
 
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McCoy

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2017, 10:59:57 AM »
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It's not the degree of deviation which tells you a wheel might be exploitable but the correlation it has with some parameter.

No, the deviation from the norm...the standard deviation can and often times will indeed tell you that a number or section is indeed abnormal and biased.

A very informative post, thanks. I was a bit sloppy here and should have said it's not *necessarily* the degree of deviation which tells you a wheel might be exploitable. You are right of course but I'm assuming that these days the casinos would be on top of such things and that they would take steps to correct a wheel which was generating larger than expected deviations before a punter could exploit it. Don't casinos monitor these statistics? Probably there are back-street casinos where this isn't done but then perhaps you're more likely to be cheated. It's rather an academic discussion for me because I don't have easy access to real casinos, but interesting nevertheless.
 
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McCoy

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2017, 11:06:13 AM »
scepticus not having a 'set pattern' isn't a very useful definition of random in my opinion. Randomness is in the eye of the beholder. Someone like Real or Mr Perfect would see non-randomness in a wheel where the average punter would see only random. The patterns would be objectively the same but average punters would most likely be unaware of the causes and so the wheel would remain unexploitable to them.
 

scepticus

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2017, 12:11:33 PM »
Professional Mathematicians and Professional Physicists  think  that  the wheel delivers random  numbers  but you ,Real and Mr. Perfect know better?

[admin: please avoid personal remarks]
« Last Edit: September 17, 2017, 12:32:24 PM by kav »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2017, 12:41:07 PM »
Sceps,  of cause we know better. Real is pro player, l am a semi- pro player , it's what we do.
   I , for example , do not do develop maths, l just use it..  gess that Real doesn't as well... we play.
Your    "Pro math or physicists" should focus on what they do as well.  Everyone should work on their sphere of competence . You wouldn't allow pig carer to make an economical projects, wouldn't you???
    Who is pushing forward game theory on your opinion anyway? As l can can see, it's always not main stream recearchers. 
 

Real

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2017, 04:57:24 PM »

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I'm assuming that these days the casinos would be on top of such things and that they would take steps to correct a wheel which was generating larger than expected deviations before a punter could exploit it. Don't casinos monitor these statistics?

Some casinos monitor, some don't.  Some know their wheels are quite biased, but leave them on the floor anyway because the wheel still generates lots of money, just like the more random wheels.  In some cases those wheels will make the casino even more.  Wheels are expensive, contrary to popular believe they're not removed just because of a high chi square.  They are merely moved around the floor more frequently...which is actually better for the player.  Casinos are also very inefficient, and employees are often poorly trained.  There are very few people working in them that would even know what a chi square alert is, let alone what to actually do about one.  Some would probably to just tell the cleaning staff to go wipe the "chi" off the wheel with a cloth. 

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Probably there are back-street casinos where this isn't done but then perhaps you're more likely to be cheated.

My greatest success was in some of the largest casinos in the world, many of which were on the Las Vegas Strip.  In back street casinos you're less likely to find a biased wheel because there are more locals and you can't win much.  In high tourism areas we always found greater success because the only people occasionally tracking the wheels were the casinos and they were complacent.  However most of the players weren't in there long enough to have a clue.  Besides, how many people do you know that are avid roulette players that have ever tracked more than a couple of thousand spins from a roulette wheel?
« Last Edit: September 17, 2017, 05:10:01 PM by Real »
 
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McCoy

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2017, 07:27:14 AM »
Thanks again. Interesting.  :)
 

Reyth

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2017, 08:20:05 PM »
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What causes hot numbers?
Hot numbers...it's usually just randomness.

Yup and this randomness is forced to produce results within the limited parameters of number availability, felt locations & sequence length.  Hence, there must always be a random bias present; there simply CANNOT be a perfect balance over a large enough sequence length.

Random bias is just as powerful as the HE.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2017, 08:22:35 PM by Reyth »
 

LiveRouletteOnlinePlayer

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What is usually the basis for a hot number
« Reply #25 on: October 06, 2017, 01:43:44 PM »

What is usually the basis for a hot number
How many times has it repeated 2 to 10 times or is it the most repeated number in a certain spins quantity or is the std deviation the correct attribute for the hot number at least when many numbers are repeated as many times usually if you play on individual hot numbers then it is not so lucrative as it is that playing a hot number and the opposite of each other in the numbers in wheel when often its hot number does not hit but on either side of the neighbor's number hit
 

Reyth

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2017, 03:55:55 PM »
I believe a hot number is a repeater; so for me, its any number that has hit at least twice in 37 spins.

After 37 spins has been completed, every spin is a new 37 spin window and we can start looking at our entire sequence to define the hottest numbers which will always correspond to the same calculation of:

Speed=((hits*37)-spins)

where the fastest numbers will have the highest results (positive values) and the slowest numbers will have the lowest results (negative values) and where zero is in perfect accord with expectation.

Unless dealing with physical bias/dealer signature/VB, the wheel is illusory (there is no difference between the wheel results and a simple list of numbers) as are their pocket positions because we cannot place our bets on the wheel and therefore we must always bet on the felt. 

Even on the felt, near misses have no meaning except for how they relate to the Speed calculation.

I know nobody agrees with me but I play RNG and as much as I would like to make a wheel based system to improve my results, I am stuck with S/U numbers being far more expensive than a felted group and even though physical bias is more consistent than random bias (which would effectively reduce the cost), I don't play at B & M casinos and don't find it necessary to engage in the harder labor connected with physical bias/dealer signature/VB.

If physical bias/dealer signature/VB was the only way to win, I wouldn't have a choice. 
« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 07:28:33 PM by Reyth »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #27 on: October 08, 2017, 12:49:49 PM »
Reyth, you coming up with very interesting ideas and formulas lately. I really openly can tell that l had a pleasure to read your last post , especially idea about the " speed". It gave me an idea that l may use in my software also... THANK YOU.
      On other hand, it makes me kinda " sad" that target for your studies is RNG, on my personal opinion,  you could do better with real wheels. At least there astitute player has more control over situation in general.... unless you know something especial about RNG you play .
 
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Reyth

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #28 on: October 08, 2017, 03:59:05 PM »
Yes you are correct.  I am missing out on a long-term phenomenon that is 100% predictable with the proper skills and with the proper technique can 10-fold my earnings.

Show me a RNG 37 spin sequence and I will show you the basis for RNG BiasTM; the same phenomenon that appears in 37 spins will manifest more definitively, the longer the RNG sequence becomes.

Because it is not a physically-based phenomenon, it is subject to focus shifts which heavily limits my earning ability.

I didn't cherry pick this, its just the first sequence that popped out:



All the features are present, I just focused on the main one I use because I am pressed for time atm. ;)
« Last Edit: October 08, 2017, 04:26:33 PM by Reyth »
 

Real

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #29 on: October 09, 2017, 01:02:41 AM »
Reyth,

I don't believe in the RNG stuff.  I hate to say it, but you're pretty much just gambling.

Here's some stuff that might help you:

1. Form your prediction on one sample.  Define the rules.  Define the prediction.
2. Then test your predictions using a statistically relevant out of sample.  When testing, don't look ahead to see what would have worked best.  If you do, then you must start a new out of sample test on a different batch of spins.
3. Duplicate your results.