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MrPerfect.

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Why hot numbers become hot
« on: September 16, 2017, 10:02:36 AM »
Hot numbers do not provide advantage, but hot numbers also very rare thing to happen. In my studies, in 95% of the time , l was able to trace( correlate )  hot numbers to real physical reasons...  it mean that hot numbers was a revelation of underlying bias in these selected conditions.
   Yes, " hot numbers" do require tracking, they produce result much better then random and can be used by astitute player. It's a hard work, but posible to acomplish


 
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kav

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2017, 10:07:12 AM »
This is a very interesting post.
But I can't say I agree.
How many spins you need to record in order to evaluate the hot numbers?
What about variance? We are told by Bayes and others that any deviations from the mean are perfectly normal and happen often.
 

McCoy

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2017, 12:57:04 PM »
The difference is that if there is some consistent association or correlation between the hot numbers and some physical parameter then the variance is no longer random because you know the cause of it. I don't think it's possible to create a successful strategy without taking into account correlations like this. It's the same in all betting scenarios. Statistics don't appear in a vacuum, there has to be a reason. Isn't that just common sense?
 
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kav

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2017, 01:19:45 PM »
McCoy,
You confuse causality with faulty/biased/exploitable wheels.
Causality exists anyway, even in a perfectly random wheel. Wheels that favor certain numbers in a statistically important manner are another subject.

The reason MrPerfect's post is very interesting, is that he claims that significant deviations from average are in most cases not the product of randomness but of exploitable physical defects of the wheel.

That's why I ask how he defines "hot numbers", what amount of deviations in what amount of spins.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 01:26:19 PM by kav »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2017, 01:43:02 PM »
Kav, my most populate profiles for wheels out there rarely reach more the 3k spins per direction ( sometimes they do..).
   Variance and other statistical phenomena does happen, but not so often and it's due to cases where data is not enough, mostly due to rarity of some particular conditions.
  Modeling of multivariable enviroment instead of using simple correlation or regression based on one variable ( number themselves ) does produce more clear picture of what is going there. It permits to see dependance between not only individual conditions and final numbers, but situation itself ( multiple dependence between variables and final numbers)
     No wheel is perfect, all of them have defects,  but defects to show themselves,  do need repetitive or dominant ball behaviors and favorable speeds or disk with numbers. If these change ( and they do a lot) , then numbers change as well....
 
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kav

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2017, 01:53:37 PM »
I understand what you are saying.

But by saying "no wheel is perfect" I think you add to the confusion than clearing it up.
Nothing in earth is perfect and that's tautology. Yet there are wheels that although not absolutely perfect, they  produce random enough results and can not be exploited. By saying that no wheel is perfect are you implying that every wheel is exploitable? I don't believe that any serious AP would claim this.

So it is better to avoid the talk about the theoretical perfection of the wheel and focus on whether a wheel is non-random to the extend of being actually exploitable.

PS: We are talking about the randomness/bias of the wheel, not if you can guess where the ball will fall by other means.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 02:00:46 PM by kav »
 
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McCoy

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2017, 02:20:00 PM »
That's why I ask how he defines "hot numbers", what amount of deviations in what amount of spins.

It's not the degree of deviation which tells you a wheel might be exploitable but the correlation it has with some parameter. I don't think these days it's possible to find a biased wheel just by collecting numbers, but if the degree of *correlation* is strong then it suggests causality although you have to be careful because correlation is not causation. The deviation might only be small but if it is consistently associated with some external parameter then you may be onto something. If the parameter is present with the hot numbers *and* is not present when they are absent that would suggest a causal connection. Talk of random is irrelevant because you only say something is random when you don't know what causes it. Random itself doesn't cause anything, it's just a term to use when we don't know the causes. I think Mr Perfect would agree with this.
 
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kav

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2017, 02:45:48 PM »
The thing is that if we are adding parameters and look for biased results, then at some point we will find them just because we are looking for them. It is the same argument that is said for people who track various different bets trying to find extreme deviations. If you look hard enough there are always extreme/abnormal events/stats to be found. But usually they are the result of randomness; or in other words they are unpredictable.

This is why it is always a good idea to predetermine your criteria before collecting the stats, than collect the stats and then try to identify which parameters produce anomalies. Of course this problem might be offset if you then pre-define the new parameters and then collect more stats.

It is a known cognitive bias that "if you look for something you will find it even if there is nothing". See also:
Apophenia - Seeing patterns when there's none
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 03:07:58 PM by kav »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2017, 03:55:12 PM »
I see nothing wrong with the statistical theory that the LotT is forced to produce random bias because just as within 37 spins there MUST be numbers that repeat, over extended 37 spin sessions (every spin is a new session after 37 spins) there MUST be numbers that have repeated that repeat and that this phenomenon can continue for many hundreds and thousands of spins.

However, just as there is Apophenia, there is its opposite where because we think its foolish or impossible for something to exist, we simply don't look for it and dismiss the possibility that it can.

This is why I detest closed-mindedness from critics who browbeat us with their absolutism which can prevent people from discovering things that POTENTIALLY can exist; people get so over-zealous when stating their own opinion and its criminal; certain people enjoy intellectually browbeating others, like some kind of sick pleasure.

Herd mentality exists even among intellectuals and everyone knows that it is impossible for a horseless carriage to work, a plane to fly and for electricity to be harnessed to produce light.

I believe that a physical wheel is a RNG, it produces patterns as such & it can have imperfections that can affect the patterns and thus be exploited.

We pretty much have to believe in physical bias because the casinos have spent so much money on counter-measures.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 04:12:02 PM by Reyth »
 
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kav

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2017, 04:20:23 PM »
Reyth,
It all depends in what context we search for abnormal results.
Searching for statistical extremities in order to identify physical defects of the wheel is very different than searching for statistical extremities to identify statistically favorable situations (whatever that may mean).

I'm not saying that statistics are useless, far from it. I'm saying that there is always a danger of various biases, even Hindsight bias, if you are not very clear (to yourself) what you are looking for and what the criteria are.

To put it another way: It is much easier to find a cloud that resembles anything (not predetermined), than to find a cloud that resembles something specifically predetermined like a car or a face etc.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 04:28:19 PM by kav »
 
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Reyth

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2017, 05:31:04 PM »
Reyth,
It all depends in what context we search for abnormal results.
Searching for statistical extremities in order to identify physical defects of the wheel is very different than searching for statistical extremities to identify statistically favorable situations (whatever that may mean).

Maybe not?  Mr. Perfect has stated that certain variables blink in and out that cause the spin sequences to change.  This takes on a different character than just a fixed bias that simply persists.

Quote
I'm not saying that statistics are useless, far from it. I'm saying that there is always a danger of various biases, even Hindsight bias, if you are not very clear (to yourself) what you are looking for and what the criteria are.

To put it another way: It is much easier to find a cloud that resembles anything (not predetermined), than to find a cloud that resembles something specifically predetermined like a car or a face etc.

Can AP players be biased?
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2017, 06:52:49 PM »
Reyth, of cause AP may be " biased"... if they start to inore some crucial variables governing the game, it will often end very not good.
     Here need to understand that bias is not numbers, but positions on the wheel that do affect resulting numbers. These positions, biases, can be viewed directly ( how few good old school mechanics guys do), or with help of some advanced scatter analysis, sometimes even measuring ball travel on different parts of wheel with metronome can help.
   After determined these positions ( location of deffects) real analysis starts... it's where we see how these deffects affect the ball travel yardage and specific ball behaviors  in different conditions.
   Obviously there are many things that can happen there and false positives for correlation are posible, especially if player is not expirienced in multivariable stats analysis. 
   As with everything, practice makes perfection. That's why l even bother to look for people to cooperate..  l need more qwolity data properly taken to deeper my own experience and understanding.  This game is really fascinating, l already found many interesting things in it , and who knows what else could be found there...
 
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Reyth

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2017, 07:09:36 PM »
Kewl :)
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2017, 12:46:59 AM »
Kav, there are very interesting things we can find with the data taken properly. Beauty of multivariable analysis is that we can find multiple correlations between variables themselves and not only with final numbers.
   For example, we can qualify a dealer by his spinning ball/ wheel habits and see how every particular action of his do affect posterior behaviour of the ball on both ball track and number ring later. This way we can choose dealers that are favorable for our bet and understand why . We can verify this particular affect on other dealers as well, if they have similar spinning habits. ... it permits to stop playing or adjust to new dealer from the very first spin he produces.
    Real power of multivariable stats is ability to identify not only correlations but make cross validation between conditions , tendencies, samples, days... it may be very different situation on some odd day, yet we still can use data collected on it , we just desasamble it by respective variables and reorganise data to specific groups. 
     Other nice example would be... imagine that we  didn't got much data on one specific value of rotor speed , for example. But we got data on similar speeds right before and after this value... if before and after cases produce similar results and ball jumps similar as well, we can assume that this respective value of rotor speed will produce same results as cases where we got enough data. Such things ( modeling of tendencies) permit significantly reduce amount of the data required. In fact there are many tricks that we can do to reduce time needed to determine where and when to bet.
 
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Real

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Re: Why hot numbers become hot
« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2017, 01:26:00 AM »
Quote
It's not the degree of deviation which tells you a wheel might be exploitable but the correlation it has with some parameter.

No, the deviation from the norm...the standard deviation can and often times will indeed tell you that a number or section is indeed abnormal and biased.

Correlations are also for comparing one spin sample to another.  Yes, you can also say "correlating" a possible defect with what appears to be showing as bias in your data.  This type of observation and skill is very very valuable.  For example, looking at the light reflection movements off of various components of the wheel enabled me to nearly instantly determine which wheels were biased and worthy of tracking, and which wheels to ignore, and enabled my team and I to find incredible success.    Be careful though.  If you look for defects, then you'll likely find them.  Unfortunately most of them are insignificant and other big defects that may have a real effect can be completely overlooked.  Not all defects will have a local effect... where the defect is viewed, but may have a resulting effect on numbers that are far away from the actual defect.  Not all defects can be seem.  By the way, don't just look for defects, listen for them as well.   Applying creative observation, some engineering skills, and a little math can take you a long ways in this game.

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 I don't think these days it's possible to find a biased wheel just by collecting numbers,

Yes, it's definitely still possible.  However, break the tracking down into more parameters/conditions and you'll find much better pay dirt.

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but if the degree of *correlation* is strong then it suggests causality although you have to be careful because correlation is not causation. The deviation might only be small but if it is consistently associated with some external parameter then you may be onto something.
If the deviation is small, then you must track whatever it is that you're testing for more trials...after which the sd should grow larger.  The more trials you test, the larger the standard deviation should grow.  As should the chi square.
Quote
What causes hot numbers?

Hot numbers...it's usually just randomness.  Biased numbers though are something entirely different.  What causes bias?  Here's the short list:

1. Loose components related to the pocket compartment, frets, or pocket inserts.
2. Piss poor assembly of wheel components.
3.  New wheel feature gimmicks that malfunction or that aren't engineered very well. (Love this one)
4. Ridges in the outer number tape of the wheel plaques.
5. Warped domes/cones
6. Rise and fall of poorly assembled/bolted indexable and nonindexable pocket compartments
7. Wheel wobble from bad bearings.
8. Some types of debris...including spilled beer.
9. Damage/wear
 
« Last Edit: September 17, 2017, 02:18:26 AM by Real »
 
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