Poll

Does "Hit and Run" work?

Hit and Run is a good idea.
Hit and Run doesn't make a difference.
What are you talking about?

Author Topic: "Hit & Run".....until when?  (Read 1510 times)

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Reyth

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #30 on: September 18, 2017, 05:50:21 PM »
People have their own reasons for believing what they believe.  I of course believe in both schools because they both have merit.  Some do not wish to see things so openly, for whatever reason.
 

scepticus

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #31 on: September 18, 2017, 06:00:47 PM »


Mc Coy
Why do you assume that Hit and Run is not an effective long term strategy ?  You have a window into  the future ? Hit and Run has done well  for me over the years . I don't usually stay long at a table but only last week I was at a table for almost three hours before recovering my losses. I may not make large profits but  neither do I make large losses .

There are not only the two  schools of thought you mention   . I use a maths based approach . Deductions from stats. relate only to that particular sample which is why mathematicians say that previous spin results are invalid.
The true merit of a system is " Does it show a profit   "
I think you are being dogmatic now without waiting for the future..
Perhaps you should  spend more time in doing the stats.. you promised ?   Then we can judge the value of your input .

 

MrPerfect.

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #32 on: September 18, 2017, 06:15:39 PM »
 On my opinion, McCoy does not need to learn stats better in order for be understood by you. Rather otherwise. ... he is sports bettor, and for all he posted up till now, shows understanding of stats a bit superior then average. 
 

Real

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #33 on: September 18, 2017, 06:50:45 PM »
AGreed
 

Reyth

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #34 on: September 18, 2017, 08:50:15 PM »
I'm impressed by his work and I do know that hit and run even in its most basic definition creates a different statistical focus, regardless of the law of large numbers.
 

scepticus

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #35 on: September 19, 2017, 02:56:31 AM »

Reyth
What "work " of Mc Coy are you impressed with.?
I did not say that he needed to LEARN Stats but that he should get started in DOING the stats that he promised.
He admits that he is a rookie so far as roulette is concerned and it  shows when he talks about a biased wheel suddenly becoming unbiased .His view on Hit and Run is clearly - er - biased .
 

Real

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #36 on: September 19, 2017, 03:26:39 AM »
Scepticus,

You should :
1. Read what McCoy writes.
2. Repeat step one.
 

Reyth

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #37 on: September 19, 2017, 04:12:35 AM »
He created a chart displaying the performance of hot numbers versus cold numbers and he has written very well on plans to create a system based on favorable statistics.
 

Rinad

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #38 on: September 19, 2017, 05:32:27 AM »


   hit and run.

 there are absolutely no down sides to it.
only up sides. one being it keeps the player's self discipline in check and that is 50% of the game.
secondly you are dealing with statistic and it is just plain common sens.
if you know as a example that if you play flat bet for 100 spins you will have a average of being on the positive side 3 to 4 times on a average during that run after going into the negative it gives you enough opportunities to stop once you got there before you swing back down.
that experiment has been proven time and time again. the casinos do everything they can to keep you at the table after you win. they are not stupid and have been in that business many moons ago. they do not encourage hit and run players, period, never have, never will.
you hinder the law of large numbers when you stop, you should do the tests yourself and see. I have and a opinion means nothing if it comes from untested data.
losing streaks become shorter and less frequent. worth gold if you ask me. the variance becomes less extreme .
you stop after a win or wins and you wont give back your winnings. you keep playing and wont make it to the cashier as often. it is a trait that many winning players I have observed do. even poker players who do practice hit and run often do much better then the 12 hour marathon ones.
my 50 cents, take care.

Rinad
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #39 on: September 19, 2017, 09:03:14 AM »
Every system has a DTOP. More spins than the DTOP give nearly almost a loss. Less spins than the DTOP, profit and loss is unpredictable. Hit and run after a profit.
H&R from the casino.
H&R from a table.
H&R after a profitable session.
H&R after a lucky bet.
Etcetery
 
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Rinad

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #40 on: September 19, 2017, 05:15:30 PM »


  Dobbe, do you have a set "formula" to calculate DOTP  for a even bet that is easy enough to aplie or is it too complex to mention it here on the forum? I know there is something that hinder always non-stop method if you dont   create "interruptions". truly is a great mistery for many players as to why it does make a difference to stop after reaching a "win target" or a stop loss .  but I know it does and I think the distribution and randomness is afected by it. if ones was to put all together all wins and losses from small sessions the result would be different then just one long endless neverending play. that is my belief and my experience.

Rinad
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #41 on: September 19, 2017, 09:26:06 PM »

Rinad DTOP is not an exact number of spins. With an Excel program you can make statistically make DTOP visual. For example play strait 18 random numbers (18 number bet) with one unit and from about 150 spins a permanent loss is shown. With 250 spins the loss is 2,7%. For every number bet there is a DTOP.
A 37 number bet has a DTOP of 1 and a one number bet over a million.

 
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palestis

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #42 on: September 19, 2017, 10:18:08 PM »

 I know there is something that hinder always non-stop method if you dont   create "interruptions". truly is a great mistery for many players as to why it does make a difference to stop after reaching a "win target" or a stop loss .  but I know it does and I think the distribution and randomness is afected by it. if ones was to put all together all wins and losses from small sessions the result would be different then just one long endless neverending play. that is my belief and my experience.

Rinad
I find the same to be true. But not necessarily for an entire session.
HIT+RUN is instantaneous and refers to betting a series of bets after an opportunity arises. (you can call it a trigger), until a profit is reached in any of the preplanned bets. Or a pre designated loss.
RUN simply means to stop (interruption), and it makes sense because once a profit is achieved, the opportunity expires. Continuing to bet after the same won opportunity becomes greed.
RUN doesn't necessarily mean you leave the casino.
It simply means that you have to wait, no matter how long it takes , for a new opportunity to develop. An opportunity that has the same worthiness as the opportunity that produced the most recent profit.
And that's where most systems break down. It is the eagerness to produce more profit under one and the same opportunity. The impatience that overrides the need to interrupt, is the major cause of system failures.
The rule of thumb is one profit per opportunity. Then stop until  a new opportunity emerges.
That is the true meaning of HIT and RUN.

« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 10:20:26 PM by palestis »
 
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Rinad

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #43 on: September 20, 2017, 12:29:32 AM »


  Palestis, the true meaning of hit and run is different for players.

we dont have to be so politicaly correct on its exact meaning.
for a player it may be a few winning hits, another it may be just one win,one loss,ect....
so lets keep major on major and not discuss the meaning of the term too much.
I like what you mention on not following the same opportunity over and over and agreed that it is wise to change your new selection. I totattly see its advantages to not get into the trap of waiting a play to go down, and they seem to always change, dont they ? constant change is always a real promess in this game.

I have experience live playing the reward of not getting stuck too long, and yet when I played a 3 number method I have to admit that sometime it takes time to get your "win".
something that is worth saying in my book is that the faster you lose, the faster you want to play and get your money back. that is where the habit of being a slow player has its advantage. feeling the pain of being down and be able to take it to another table is like carrying a heavy load for some players. specialy if the loss is bigger then we would like.
but hit and run can protect you from wanting to fight back too fast to ease the pain. many time just the fact of going to take a bathroom brake can be enough to give a player the time he needs to rethink things trough.

the writter of the book "40.000" spins did run a experiment for 1.300.000 spins on a computer for his 3 number system and found that instead of losing 5.24% to the house by not moving after hitting his winning number, he overcame the house by 2.75% just by creating "stoping points" after moving by hitting or losing his bank.
I respect the guy for he played for over 29 years the exact cluster method I have been playing the last 5 years, and never had a losing year. played over 2000 sessions.
but the point of hit and run is that it can mean different things to different people. depending on your strategy it differs, but if you think about it; WHY DO THE HOUSE ALWAYS WANT A PLAYER TO STAY AFTER A WINNING SESSION ?  THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TELL EVERY PLAYER ONE FACT AND ONE FACT ONLY.
WHAT GOES UP ALWAYS COMES DOWN SOON OR LATER. AND i RATHER LET THE HOUSE TAKE SOMEONE ELSE'S MONEY AND TAKE MINE HOME IF i HAVE BEATEN THE HOUSE.
it does not mean I have to go home. but regressing to a lower unit is one way to deal with it. micro units is always available somewhere, some place, like your laptop, where it does not cost you too much if you lose.

Rinad

Rinad
 
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scepticus

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #44 on: September 20, 2017, 01:03:09 AM »

I agree Rinad.
The objective is to profit from your  betting . The randomness of the winning numbers means that we are all subject to Random. We realise that so take our profits while others are greedy and  hope that the wheel still favours them . Each to his own.