Royal Panda roulette

Poll

Does "Hit and Run" work?

Hit and Run is a good idea.
Hit and Run doesn't make a difference.
What are you talking about?

Author Topic: "Hit & Run".....until when?  (Read 912 times)

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McCoy

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2017, 07:38:43 AM »
Hit and run, in its most basic definition is when you gain profit and leave the table "to avoid losing it"

That doesn't make much sense to me because it suggests you don't have any properly researched plan in the first place. If I don't like getting wet I can check the sky or get a weather forecast before leaving home, in which case I have an 'edge' over the rain. Or I can 'hit and run' by not bothering to do either and just make a run for it when it starts raining. Which of the two options results in me getting wet  least often?  :)
 
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Reyth

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2017, 05:57:35 PM »
Right, well as it turns out, there are statistical reasons for not betting at certain times or for completely resetting the random environment.  In fact, even though I have heard of systems that do not do this, I think its essential to have this as part of any successful system.

Again, it comes down to the fact that our system will not stand up to negative variance and we need to have a way of dealing with that which doesn't expose our bankroll.

This concept can even be followed if a person reduces their chips to the min bet, when otherwise they would be raising; that's why I said "in its most basic definition".

Something in our system has to give way to the wheel or we are guaranteed to be crushed; its the only way we will survive.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2017, 06:00:05 PM by Reyth »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2017, 10:58:50 PM »
All are relevant...stop after 1st win or after 1st loss??
In both cases you are expecting a loss after a win/loss, but neither is true all of the time.
Wins to losses ratio could be balanced or one way street at times, so by changing table or stopping it's like we think we know what's coming up next, but if this was the case then why not to stay and bet the opposite if I'm expecting to lose?
Have you ever thought about it?
You can bet anything which can happen so by quitting makes no sense.

Another nonsense is to set a win goal per session, what does it mean I'm aiming for 50 units or 50% net of my bankroll?

Do all sessions have to confine within your prefixed limits?
What if you stop by achieving your session's win goal but while you sit on the table without betting you find out that if you had continued you'd have won 2fold the amount which you have already pocketed?

Winning in gambling can never be like a 9 to 5 salary, not in terms of profit expectation, nor in duration to expectation ratio.
Random cannot be predefined within certain limits of money and/or time, but when we set these kind of limits we are missing the chance to win anything more than our session's limit when results are favorable AND when they are NOT favorable we'll risk/lose more than we are aiming for.

These kind of money management and 'hit & run' tactics will never make you long term winners, key to success is elsewhere thus you have to rearrange your point of view.
 

Reyth

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2017, 11:48:24 PM »
A person can switch tactics or stay with a pre-defined system, in both cases we must give space to the wheel in order to survive.

To me, hit and run doesn't just always mean leaving the table but also ceasing betting or drastically lowering the bet amount temporarily, in the same session.

There has to be a method of cutting and/or avoiding losses.  Without some kind of extraordinary betting method, it is essential to every system to do this; like a steam vent, if you will.

It doesn't matter if in a million spins everything evens out because what matters is the immediate difference in the random focus (in the case of changing tables/resetting) and the release of negative variance (in the case of temporarily ceasing/lowering betting).
 
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Real

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2017, 01:38:35 AM »
Quote
A person can switch tactics or stay with a pre-defined system, in both cases we must give space to the wheel in order to survive.

Space?  Are you serious?  Do you have a book that you reference or do you just make up this silly stuff up on the fly?

You can hit, run,  run fast, and give it "space"...but you can't avoid negative variance any more than you can hit, run, and dodge growing older.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2017, 01:46:34 AM by Real »
 

scepticus

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2017, 09:59:07 AM »

Mc Coy
Why do you think that I have not researched and use a plan and yet use a Hit and Run technique ?
My definition of Hit and Run is that I take a profit and  RUN ! What do you do ? Carry on playing until you have lost your profit? Isn’t that what we are warned against doing?
There are  different interpretations of Hit and Run.
Run at the first profit -
Run when you have reached a pre-determined profit-
I “RUN “ when I have made a predetermined number  of  LOSSES or when I am not making progress and so will accept a small loss rather than continue “into the unknown “.
Or I will RUN when I have made a good start and have won 100 chips very quickly .
So what would you do ? The same as other gamblers and carry on betting in the hope that you will win a significant amount that you can boast about ?
We must stop at some point .That point is for the individual to determine not you  Me or anyone else.
p.s
1  )I  HATE expressions of Certainty  in regard to gambling .
 2  ) I will no longer respond to posts from Real and Mr.Perfect. They regard me as a Liar and I regard them as
being economical with the truth , 
 

McCoy

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2017, 11:19:13 AM »
scepticus it's not really a matter of playing until you've lost your profit against taking a profit at the earliest opportunity, like you are suggesting. Both seem to rely only on luck. Maybe 'hit and run' is the best course of action if you don't have an properly researched and tested plan, but if you do then you bet selectively at those times and under those circumstances where the edge is in your favour. What use is there for hit and run in this situation? It would be irrelevant. Hit and run seems like an act of desperation to me, you hope you make a profit before your bank is gone and if you do you quit. It's not a long-term and sustainable way to bet.

 
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scepticus

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2017, 12:05:03 PM »

So let's cut to the chase Mc Coy.
WHEN do YOU stop ?
I rely on LUCK ? Where in Probability Theory is LUCK mentioned ?
 

Reyth

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2017, 03:29:57 PM »
Quote
A person can switch tactics or stay with a pre-defined system, in both cases we must give space to the wheel in order to survive.

Space?  Are you serious?  Do you have a book that you reference or do you just make up this silly stuff up on the fly?

You can hit, run,  run fast, and give it "space"...but you can't avoid negative variance any more than you can hit, run, and dodge growing older.

So, AP has no negative variance and you always bet continuously.  Got it thanks.
 

Reyth

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2017, 03:32:06 PM »
you bet selectively at those times and under those circumstances where the edge is in your favour.

I still consider this a form of hit and run, because we temporarily "run" from betting.
 

McCoy

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2017, 07:17:45 AM »
If that situation comes under hit and run then even Real uses it because I assume he doesn't continue to bet on a wheel which is no longer biased.  :) . I suppose you could call using a tested system 'hit and run' because you do stop playing when outside of the 'favourable' zone and no longer have the edge, but I don't think that's the interpretation Mr J had in mind when he started this thread, maybe he could clarify? If there are good reasons to stop betting then you should stop, but from your answer to my question 'what is hit and run' I understood it to be a kind of bullet dodging exercise in which you don't necessarily stop betting because you no longer have an edge, but because you want to conserve any profit you may have gained.
But if you still have the edge there would be no reason to stop, and if you don't have an edge stopping won't give you an edge because sometimes you would make no profit at all and so would have to have some kind of stop loss in place, but at what point do you have the stop loss?. And at those times when you have gained a profit you might quit just before a long winning streak. In both situations you are just guessing. In summary, for this kind of 'hit and run' if you have an edge it is irrelevant and if you don't then it can't help you.
 
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McCoy

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #26 on: September 18, 2017, 07:22:31 AM »
So let's cut to the chase Mc Coy.
WHEN do YOU stop ?
I rely on LUCK ? Where in Probability Theory is LUCK mentioned ?

I don't currently play at all. I'm still learning and investigating the possibilities. I suppose you could call luck the deviation or variance, so you're relying on the positive variance to win. But as I wrote in a previous post, it's not an effective long-term strategy.
 

Reyth

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #27 on: September 18, 2017, 02:38:50 PM »
Right which is why I said "in its most basic definition" in my answer to you.  I did that to avoid complicating the issue.  I define hit and run to include ceasing betting or lowering one's chips temporarily; this and completely resetting a session is what I would call "giving space" to the wheel.

I like your approach because you seem to know this already.  I think you have the ability to discover and implement something that will work.  I am too "rigid" in my thinking and too "lazy" in my efforts to properly perform statistical studies.

Right now I think its the LotT applied to every spin that can be studied for objective patterns because roulette is a "closed circuit" and its kind of amazing that at the same time I was discovering this, Jan's GUT came to the fore in the discussion which is also based on the LotT and is based on statistical studies of the same. :)
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 02:42:17 PM by Reyth »
 

McCoy

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #28 on: September 18, 2017, 04:00:15 PM »
It seems there are two schools of thought about roulette systems, physics based and statistics based. Right now I have an open mind about each of them, but I reserve the right to become dogmatic in the future.  :)
 

Real

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Re: "Hit & Run".....until when?
« Reply #29 on: September 18, 2017, 04:40:21 PM »
Statistic based systems related to the fitness of the "wheel/gaming device" have merit.  As do physics based.

Statistic based systems that attack the "game" though are unfortunately nothing more than a fools folly.