Author Topic: Roulette Geography & Statistics  (Read 597 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3645
  • Thanked: 1138 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2017, 07:59:15 PM »
mmkay, and so these variables switch during play right?  And you follow how the variables are acting as they have their impact upon the random sequence right?

I know I read a post by you where you indicated that system players and AP players can sometimes "cross paths" and that ultimately it doesn't matter since doing what works is what matters?  I mean it was something similar to that, I remember it.

I wrote softwares that tracks the data and identifies the hottest group (there ALWAYS must be a hottest group that MUST appear within 2 adjacent streets), so for me the tracking is automatic, I just click buttons and look at outputs. :)

Someone around here (I think it was TERM, lol I know it was him lol) suggested a phone app that could be used for this but the major problem, as I see it, is the fact that just racking up 74 spins takes like up to 1.5 hours alone, 200 spins (a more stable time in the sequence) can be 4 hours!



Here is expectation for 11 groups of 6 numbers that is shown by the top number, so it reads -49 -86 -62 -68 -31 +68 +68 +12 +6 +62 +86.

The selections that matter here are DS 16-21 (+68), DS 19-24 (+68), DS 28-33 (+62) and obviously DS 31-36 (+86).

This is not a normal session and is a time of dispersion which is rare.  However, the most important thing is the "tide level" of the selection we are on, as shown below:



In this case our selection, DS 31-36 is at low tide because there are only two numbers that have appeared recently, #31 & #35 (both three times in the last three 27-spin-cycles).

This means we are vulnerable to the obvious and abnormal dispersion and it is potentially dangerous to bet.

Its amazing but the hottest group will actually indicate to us when dispersion is taking place because its tide level will decrease; the selection is "breathing out".

Look at DS 22-27, it has 5 numbers that have come in within the last 27 spins (all but #24), it is a major cause of the dispersion; its at high tide, below.



This is a major key to our survival because this selection has "sneaked up on us" from an under-performing status.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 08:55:53 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, MrPerfect.

MrPerfect.

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1047
  • Thanked: 593 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2017, 03:03:35 AM »
 Just the numbers by themselves is a very weak indicator. Need numbers plus conditions ( variables). When proper connection between variables and numbers is identified  ( correlation) , you can determine when is better to bet higher ( perfect conditions), when is better to lower your bet or stop betting all together.
    Skips (or repetitive hits) are useful when there is some variable that you can not identify visually... like type of throw or the ball in use ( some of them look very alike and not always there is a lasure to look the wheel as much as you like).
    But it's not like skips analysis is deterministic... it's just an auxiliary tool to refine a betting model, not to create it. To base your analysis entirely on skip frequencies will require huge sample of data and huge computing power... besides would be useful to base your selection of numbers group membership on something other then felt, often wheel order is not enough. ... need ability to alter numbers belonging to the group or include( exclude )  additional numbers to it.
     In general, felt ( wheel order) was designed on purpose to make profitable betting more difficult and bias of the wheel less obvious. ... whoever did it, they did a good job ( for casinos to keep results look random ).
   
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3645
  • Thanked: 1138 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2017, 03:23:35 AM »
  To base your analysis entirely on skip frequencies will require huge sample of data and huge computing power...

I have found this phenomenon reliably occurs very quickly and persists for multiple hundreds and thousands of spins:



Is 7000 spins enough?  And notice here, there is no dispersion; there is just Group A (DS 25-30) & Group B (DS 4-9) and the rest of the board is totally dominated.  This is not something rare, its something that occurs in every sequence but even so, there always will be brief periods of disperson which commonly produce a switch in number groups, that need to be prepared for and recognized.

Quote
need ability to alter numbers belonging to the group or include( exclude )  additional numbers to it.   

You are right, the hottest numbers will shift at a certain point but there will always be a hottest DS and I have seen a single DS remain the hottest and go as many as 599 coups without a single gap greater than 26 spins; typically, as above, the selections go hundreds of coups without gapping.

I know its amazing but I have found that 2 adjacent streets is some kind of statistical "shelf" for groups of the hottest numbers -- we always find 2 adjacent streets that reliably hit above expectation and a large group of hot numbers within those streets that produce results that are greater than probability and expection, over a long period of time, as shown above.

The LotT produces these results by chaining together 37 spin sequences; out of the usually seen 6-18 hot numbers per sequence, 6 numbers will consistently show up more than any others and will be contained within 2 adjacent streets and these same 6 numbers will persist for an extended period of time (multiple hundreds of spins & coups).
« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 04:04:32 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: MrPerfect.

McCoy

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 66
  • Thanked: 45 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2017, 11:35:40 AM »
Just the numbers by themselves is a very weak indicator. Need numbers plus conditions ( variables). When proper connection between variables and numbers is identified  ( correlation) , you can determine when is better to bet higher ( perfect conditions),

I agree with this. It's not so different from sports betting, except that there you can also get better odds.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth, MrPerfect.

MrPerfect.

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1047
  • Thanked: 593 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2017, 12:34:13 PM »
McCoy,  better odds exist in roulette, job of player is to find , verify and explore them optimally. 
    Reyth, lm not afraid to sound ignorant,  l do not really understand what your software show , but it looks very interesting.  Could you please explain in detail what each line and position really mean?  Uploading sample would help as well.
   Please explain what do you mean by term of " dispersion "... your use of it sims not really conventional.  I know it's a pain to explain obvious things, but software of others and logic behind it often is not so clear for side observer. 
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

McCoy

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 66
  • Thanked: 45 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2017, 01:30:22 PM »
McCoy,  better odds exist in roulette

By 'odds' I mean payouts. These are fixed in roulette but not in sports betting.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth, MrPerfect.

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3645
  • Thanked: 1138 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2017, 03:57:24 PM »
Could you please explain in detail what each line and position really mean?



31-36 -- This is the title of the DS, where this is DS 31-36 (the last one on the board)

151 -- This is the HS Ratio which is the Hits to Spins Ratio; in this case it is +151.  This is simply a positive or negative figure based on the number of hits expected for the number of spins made; it is a running total for all spins recorded and it has an infinite capacity.  If this number is positive, it means we have 151 less spins than expected for the coups we have achieved.  If this number were negative (it isn't) it would mean that we would have 151 more spins than expected for the coups we have achieved.  This shows the speed at which hits accrue (positive) or fail to accrue (negative).

158 -- This is called the PMI which is Progression Movement Indicator.  This is the number of coups since the last gap of 27 or more spins has occurred without a hit; a gap of at least 27 spins is called a PLE which is Progression Loss Event.  In this case, there have been 150 coups since the last PLE (gap of at least 27 spins).

150 -- This is the PLE Ratio which means Progression Loss Event Ratio.  This is the ratio of coups to progression losses (gaps of 27+ spins), where a positive number means that we have less progression losses than expectation and a negative number means we have more progression losses than expectation.  Here it is +150 which means that we have had 150 more coups than expected without a gap of 27+ spins (PLE).  This measures the speed at which PLE's occur (gaps of 27+ spins).



31 -- This is an individual number on the felt that is contained within a DS; in this case it is the number 31 Black, the first number in the DS.

148 -- This is the HS Ratio for this individual number.  Because it is an individual number, it is based on its natural expectation cycle of 37 spins.  A positive number means it is coming in faster than expectation (less spins than expectation for the hits received) and if it is negative it means that it is coming in slower than expectation (more spins than expectation for the hits received).  In this case it is green and so it means +148 which is fast; 148 less spins than expectation for the hits received.

3 -- This is the STR which means Streak indicator.  This is the total number of times in a row that this number has hit within 27 spins (no gap).  In this case it has hit 3 times, each of these times has been with less than a 27 spin gap.

23 -- This is simply the number of spins since this number has hit.  This number last hit 23 spins ago. 

Quote
Uploading sample would help as well.

Sorry at this point I am not recording play data to a file but I am recording my progress and I have some videos where I play using the softwares.

Quote
Please explain what do you mean by term of " dispersion "... your use of it sims not really conventional.



What we see normally, time and time again, is a single hottest group (Group A) and a single group that is hotter than the rest but not the hottest (Group B).

In this case you can see that the hottest group is the highlighted DS 19-24 but instead of a single group that is second hottest, we have 3 such groups!  This means that the output sequence is likely to hit all of them heavily in the next 27 spins which means it is more likely that our main selection will 1) Be overrun as the hottest, 2) Gap.


CONCENTRATION

Here is what the normal picture looks like where our highlighted DS 25-30 is the hottest with a HS Ratio of +493 (Group A) and DS 4-9 is hotter than the rest but not the hottest (Group B).  In this case they are close (the majority of the time they will be farther away) and so some caution must be used because DS 4-9 could have a run that will overwhelm DS 25-30 and even cause it to gap; this is a SWITCH which happens from time to time but usually hundreds of coups will be taken before this happens.



So the pattern that roulette follows is:

[GROUP A] [#'S OF COUPS] [SWITCH TO GROUP B]

And this repeats over and over while the rest of the board just hits slowly and usually slower than expectation but always much more slowly than GROUP A and GROUP B.

There must always be a GROUP A and a GROUP B.

The danger is the SWITCH because most of the time GROUP A will gap when it happens.  I think it is very easy to see when its likely that a SWITCH will take place; we can learn to recognize times of DISPERSION.

If we can learn to survive the SWITCH, we can flow with roulette endlessly as it runs through these cycles.

This is nothing other than watching the LotT choose its hot numbers on a spin by spin basis, where certain of these hot numbers that are contained within 2 adjacent streets, will PERSIST more than any others over an extended series of spin sequences.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 05:30:24 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, MrPerfect.

MrPerfect.

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 1047
  • Thanked: 593 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2017, 09:10:49 AM »

Thanks, Reyth. Your explanation skills are super!! Even someone as dumb as l am managed to understand.  Looks like your programming skills are good as well..  it's promising. 
    Your soft will need history of numbers and assosiated skips implemented, plus hystory of consequtive hits.  Where numbers are priority  ( separation by direction is important). Good as well will be at least 5 user defined variables, 2 of wich can take up to 5 different values( user defined), one with 12 posible values ( 1,2,3...12) and other 2 with 37-38 posible values ( numbers).
    Soft would need to be able to operate data as " list" with ability to export sample with given variables values ( multiple choice in each category) .
    If you manage to do that, we could compare our decision for every individual case and see where it could bring us.
    The thing is, these 27 spin skips normally indicate change of situation ( different ball for example ). With set up mentioned above we could filter for such a cases and look for measures( triggers ) to stop betting when it's not favorable.
   I know it may seem like too much of unnecessary functions, but redesign software is much more pain then to allow expansion of functionality from very start.
   Would you be interested to do such changes?
« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 03:41:55 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Reyth

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3645
  • Thanked: 1138 times
Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2017, 10:23:04 PM »
    Your soft will need history of numbers and assosiated skips implemented, plus hystory of consequtive hits.


This is being implemented as we speak.

Quote
Where numbers are priority  ( separation by detection is important). Good as well will be at least 5 user defined variables, 2 of wich can take up to 5 different values( user defined), one with 12 posible values ( 1,2,3...12) and other 2 with 37-38 posible values ( numbers).
    Soft would need to be able to operate data as " list" with ability to export sample with given variables values ( multiple choice in each category) .

   
This is possible but not practical at the moment, as I am still testing assumptions regarding this phenomenon and crafting the most efficient betting system that I can.

When I hit 13.3K BU in total profit, I plan to review my overall performance, at which time we may be able to collaborate.  Sounds really interesting, actually.  Especially because I think I will be able to prove that electronic RNG has bias that mirrors bias found in physical wheels.

Quote
The thing is, these 27 spin skips normally indicate change of situation ( different ball for example ). With set up mentioned above we could filter for such a cases and look for measures( triggers ) to stop betting when it's not favorable.

I am working on these parameters as we speak.  I believe there is always a sign before a gap occurs, and this is specifically because we are betting a group of numbers that have exceeded probability and expectation for an extended period; hot groups of numbers come and go, but some of them will always do so much faster & for a much longer period than the rest!



Just wanted to make a note of a concept that I had while discussing the LotT with Blue, some years back.  It was that a sleeper only has a 33% chance of waking up because it can only be an ordinary number, whereas an ordinary number can both repeat or be ordinary (66%) and a repeater can repeat or be ordinary (66%).

So this concept lead me to think that "what a number is already doing, it will tend to continue doing".

I think this is an important concept and is supported by the KoH phenomenon & the LotT, where groups of numbers will persist over many hundreds & thousands of spins, more than any other.



Hot numbers persist for thousands of spins, outperforming all others; some of these numbers will ALWAYS group on the felt -- this grouping is worth gold!



Latest realization:

The felt and the wheel are both equal; they are both closed circuits and therefore the LotT MUST create a hottest grouping on both of them at all times.  Therefore BOTH the wheel AND the felt simultaneously have individual groupings!

It makes me wonder if there is some way to merge both groupings into a single system...

This has brought me to realize that the wheel is irrelevant and groupings upon it don't have any significance.

HOWEVER, ranking the top fastest numbers with the highest return frequency is EXTREMELY useful.  I just KNOW that a very powerful S/U betting system can be crafted using this knowledge...

Here is another graphical way to depict the returning frequency of the numbers:


Where the size of the wheel will show how fast it returns; the smaller the wheel, the faster its return.

This brings to mind the possibility of a "Return Ratio" which would numerically and symbolically represent the speed at which a number is returning in relation to expectation.

So what is expectation for a number to return from a gap?  This requires a clarification of terms:

Gap -- this is 37+ spins without a hit.

Return Expectation --  This is a toughie...  The only way to figure this out is to make a "return tracker" that will somehow display the time spent gapping in a measurable way...
« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 05:56:14 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, MrPerfect.