Author Topic: Roulette Geography & Statistics  (Read 598 times)

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Reyth

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Roulette Geography & Statistics
« on: September 06, 2017, 03:16:12 PM »
I have to make this quick note because I have to go and I don't want to forget:

There is only so much space on the felt and therefore statistically there MUST be a confluence of activity in ONE area more than any other it MUST happen because it cannot NOT happen because the odds are too great for it to NOT happen.

This concept is an amazing way to think about roulette geographically.  When we merge the word geography and statistics, what word do we have?


 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2017, 03:41:38 PM »
 If you forget entirely about the felt and look to the wheel instead , it will make more sense. ...
   Instead "geographically ", more useful would be looking geometrically ( areas on the wheel and likehood of specific patterns)...
    You could look optically as well, where lent or prizma effect is what bias does ( focus or disperse ball jump results).
    Looking from position of software engineer for a stability ( equality ) of path ( way from one point to other) can be useful as well.
   If you combine all 3 , it will be presisely what l do in data analysis. Obviously you need to use all these aproaches from point of view of statistician.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2017, 06:03:55 PM »
I agree that this phenomenon will always occur with the wheel as our focus too.  However, we cannot place our bets upon the wheel.

In the final analysis we are both correct because we are only talking about individual numbers but most important about my point is that these numbers MUST group on the felt because statistically they have to.

Could I also include geometrical aspects of the wheel in this analysis?  YES but ultimately we would be talking about the same thing.  The wheel is a RNG after all.

Look, I know you believe in RNG patterns AND wheel bias both.  Its is the RNG patterns to which I refer and I do so from a purely RNG perspective.

Will I inevitably bump into actual wheel bias and/or dealer signature when I play upon a physical wheel where they exist?  YES.

Maybe a better word for the felt would be topographically?

Quote
noun:  precise detailed study of the surface features of a region

If frequency of hits are seen as mountains, the felt takes on a 3-dimensional aspect similar to a landscape.  If we think of time in its most extended scope and the effect of the elements upon the land, to even include water flow, we will see that roulette crudely mirrors physical life on this earth.

Playing roulette therefore, can be seen as traveling across the earth, where the geographical features change as we keep moving OR even observing the changes of a land mass over an extended period of time, like a time lapsed video camera.



    You could look optically as well, where lent or prizma effect is what bias does ( focus or disperse ball jump results).


Quote
In geometry, a prism is a polyhedron comprising an n-sided polygonal base, a second base which is a translated copy of the first, and n other faces (necessarily all parallelograms) joining corresponding sides of the two bases. All cross-sections parallel to the bases are translations of the bases. Prisms are named for their bases, so a prism with a pentagonal base is called a pentagonal prism. The prisms are a subclass of the prismatoids.




I especially like how these mountains can have shapes based on their frequency; similar to the picture above where their peak is parallel but smaller than their base.  This could be used to indicate the RETURNING FREQUENCY of a number because one of the keys to understanding this phenomenon includes the smaller gaps these numbers make as they continue to show up consistently and more frequently than other numbers.

Obviously you need to use all these aproaches from point of view of statistician.

If I can grab hold of more analysis data that will help me see and understand this phenomenon, it could make me even more able to forecast wheel results.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 06:47:07 PM by Reyth »
 
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remolacha

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2017, 10:22:04 AM »
haha nice=))) not to forget=) I will also make such notes...
 
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kav

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2017, 11:01:16 AM »
Great concept - I'm jealous!
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2017, 01:28:21 PM »
Reyth, of course numbers gonna group on felt, there are many splits,  sometimes even quads that make a sense in terms of wheel layout.
   For example look numbers of tiers... 5/8, 11/10/13, 23/24, if 12 is somehow positive, can cover entire 3 line ( 10/11/12)... ets.
   Someone could stay near wheel and play 1st dousen only... it's all field almost without possibility to be detected for an astitute player.
   Folks normally try to mask their bet with splits, 3lines... ets.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2017, 05:54:52 PM »
Great concept - I'm jealous!

This is why I had to make the note!  As sure as I had the concept about this, I would also surely forget it! :D

After all of that bluster though, I think the concrete area where I can expand is:

the returning frequency of numbers

Because all individual numbers will gap regularly but its the grouping of these numbers that run hot, gap and then return quickly that creates the long-term concentration phenomenon. :D

But even after realizing this, it is probably best monitored & demonstrated through the hits:spins ratio, which is simply a running expectation figure, which I already use. :shrug:

At least it is a concept that can be used a foundation for further thoughts and developments. :)

Where I really want to not to forget to expand is exactly how the statistics force groupings of numbers over an extended period. 

It seems like, it is as if there is the concept of balance in distribution across the felt but it is because that balance is never normally achieved that certain sections of the felt must normally always refelect that through an increase in concentration of hits.

Now therefore we know that there is normally always an increase in concentration of hits, so this means there is a concept of persistence vs. interruption and the question is:

Why, statistically, must there be a grouping of numbers on the felt that must always normally be persistent?

In my own terms:

Why must there always be a King of the Hill?

Without necessarily being able to intellectually explain it, I know instinctually that it must be so, I mean its like, roulette cannot exist without always producing a King of the Hill.  Its like its the same thing as balanced distribution, it normally never happens; i.e. unbalanced distribution normally always happens. 

All this I "know" instinctually but not necessarily intellectually... :/ 
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 07:20:31 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2017, 07:38:02 PM »

Reyth
Do you mean
1 space is a Mound
2 spaces is a hillock
3 spaces is a Hill
4 spaces is a Mountain
etc . ?
So you have a line going up and down erratically .
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2017, 07:41:23 PM »
Ya, like it would be a 3 dimensional figure somehow where the shape of the "cone" would also indicate the returning frequency of the numbers; but I am pretty sure that just using the LotT 37 spin statistic as a rating of negative and positive is the best way to show that.  So I mean ultimately its a quaint idea that looks nifty but is really so much vanity in expression?

Exactly this:  The height of the feature is the number of repeats within a specified timeframe (for me its 27 spins).  The shape of how this height is drawn would indicate how quickly this number returns from 0 height to a positive height; I think this is a 37 spin timeframe and could be indicated in where the peak was located, all the way to the left or to the right -- or even better the last say 7 occurences could be graphically depicted from left to right to determine what the peak looked like?

This is like Roulette Topography. :D
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 07:47:51 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2017, 07:55:58 PM »

Reyth
If you consider the 50% Chance the 60% Chance the 90% Chance -the 95% Chance as the " spaces " what does your line look like when tracing the last  , say, 100 spins ?
I think it would be unlikely to rise above the 95% line.
Whatdyathink ?
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2017, 12:48:33 AM »
Ok, lets say we are drawing a terrain feature to represent the number 17:

Let's say it hits the first time on spin #10 of the history, it would have a height of "1" and its peak would be drawn to represent the 10 spins that it remained without hitting; I believe this should be the highest performance possible because it hit on the best half of a 27 spin cycle -- so the peak would be in the far right spot and the angle of the peak would represent 27/10 which is 37%.

The angles would run:

1   3.7
2   7.4
3   11.1
4   14.8
5   18.5
6   22.2
7   25.9
8   29.6
9   33.3
10  37.0
11  40.7
12  44.4
13  48.1
14  51.8
15  55.5
16  59.2
17  62.9
18  66.6
19  70.3
20  74.0
21  77.7
22  81.4
23  85.1
24  88.8
25  92.5
26  96.2
27-37  100% flat

Any spins after 37 would have no height.  I would expect alot of variation in peak angles.

We could further develop this by dividing the peak into say, 10 sections, to depict the "return performance" over the last 10 periods where the number assumed a 0 height.

Now that you mention it, I think this would be very helpful because as of now, I have no rating to measure this; I only track the number of spins since the last hit.

It now occurs to me that I can chart this two-dimensionally with ease.  I think this valuable. :)
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 05:08:02 AM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2017, 06:07:34 AM »
I will say this:

The key to roulette is not finding hot numbers!

its finding hot numbers that have a consistently low returning frequency!!*

*Returning frequency is the amount of spins it takes for a number to return to being hot after not hitting for a specified number of spins.

Every hot number will gap at some point, that's guaranteed but its being aware of consistently small gaps that is the secret!

I think I have discovered the way to understand this phenomenon!

A single number has a LotT spin cycle of 37 spins.  In every sequence of 37 spins, we will generally see 6-18 numbers that will repeat.  Now, if we take that cycle and make a LotT of the LotT ,say 37 [LotTX37!!!] cycles for a total of 74 spins,  we will generally see X numbers that will continue to repeat more often than any other numbers!

As we chain these sessions together we will consistenly find these X numbers that will persist for many more cycles before there is a shift.

Its almost like roulette time is slowing down for us because we are analyzing on a larger scale!  I mean we have all seen how single numbers will become hot and then blink out where others remain hot, its just that usually we are only looking at a small window like the last 10-16 spins for which numbers are hot!

By definition, if a number is hot for an extended period, it cannot be gapping for very long!

Here is something for the 'Law of the Third'

I have done these in 5 cycles of 37 spins. What I wanted to find out is how many numbers come out less and how many come out more than what probability dictates they should. The sum of numbers that come out more than what the average suggests is an average of 12. The sum of numbers that come out less than what the average suggests is an average of 16.


Here are a few more.

I will try a few longer ones over 10 cycles just to see what happens. It is interesting (if nothing else) that the 'law of the third' runs throughout the game in a lot of different ways. here we are seeing 1/3 of numbers come out above expectation and 2/3 either equal or below expectation on average.


I had time to do a 10 cycle chart as well. The numbers above average finished at +16. They don't always run as high as this. A couple of numbers that get crazy hot can soon reduce that down to +12 or +13. My idea of a playable strategy is 1-9 numbers using more of a visual approach (as opposed to a stats approach) according to what is happening on the wheel right now.


This guy was a genius and he didn't even realize it, he actually gave up on this data as useless!!

... [the] "law of the third" is about single numbers,each and every number represents a group (split,street,quad,line,dozen,column,red,black,high,low,odd,even) therefore "law of the third" rules every bet section,regardless how small or big it is.

^^^ THIS GUY!

The LotT shows us BIAS in random numbers! :D
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 07:18:23 AM by Reyth »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2017, 01:14:23 PM »
To make it more useful will require bigger spin frames.. like 370 instead of 37.
 
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Reyth

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2017, 02:52:19 PM »
RIGHT!  But its the 74 TO the 370 that also counts!  Usually there is NO significant gapping in these numbers at all once they become hot; because the group cycles frequently in the individual numbers and covers the gaps of each other.

All we have to be aware of is the SHIFT, when one group of numbers being the hottest, changes to another group.  This change occurs SLOWLY like over many hundreds of spins! :D

Its like roulette is in slow motion! :D

I know you have discovered this too! :D

The hot group of numbers "breathe", in and out, like a set of lungs.  Its when they breathe out (like a low tide) that they are most vulnerable to a SWITCH or GAP and so my latest theory is monitor this "breathing" and try to bet when they are breathing in (like a high tide).

Other number groups are breathing too!  When other groups start getting too hot, our group becomes more likely to GAP or SWITCH then too, so I am watching that as well. :)
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 06:11:22 PM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Roulette Geography & Statistics
« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2017, 07:21:39 PM »
Generaly speaking, there are not such a thing as hot numbers. There are numbers biased to specific conditions. These are ( most common): type of throw, dominant rotor speed, atm. Pressure ( indirect), real culprit in this case is dominance of ball behaviors ( jump backs, spinners, stops...ets).
    Running charts for different numbers sims easy way to control situation, but it's extremely difficult to perform in practice, charts becoming too complicated ... easy solution l found is just track full profile of variables and associate numbers to conditions present while those numbers hit. Then, in play , just nessesity to control conditions left... player wright those down anyway... at least he supposed to.
    Hear  is paradox: easy way is difficult to perform ( number charts) and difficult way does in fact simplify the game.
    Collecting proper data can permit to do crosstest to determine groups of numbers that has tendency to hit together ( normally 2 different sectors) and prepare proper betting plan for any combination of possible conditions in play.
 
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