Author Topic: Traders at the roulette table  (Read 1898 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Traders at the roulette table
« on: December 23, 2016, 07:09:41 PM »
Well may I introduce my self: I am a 50 years old man and been trading futures markets something about 10 years now. I do this for living. I have allways NOT been very interested in about roulette because of it's house edge nature and "pure randomness".

But during the years I have been moving my own futures trading strategies more and more into a very short term (intraday) trading which does not care the direction or any explanations/resons but the price action itself and being the most important things the management and execution. My strategies are 100% technical analyses from the pure price action. No traditional trading indicators. I call my current strategy (and it's variations) as a go with the flow strategy (GWTF).

This transition has led me to more and more into a situation where I have to survive in "random kind" of environments. I currently see and understand there is very much common between short term trading in financial markets and the roulette. My interest for the roulette got a big step ahead some times ago when I understood there really has no "slippage" in roulette and the commissions (house edge 2,8% or 10% method in RNG) are in fact quite low compared to the financial market scalping.

I understand some of the problems what the succesfull roulette player will face which does not exists (or not at the same level) in trading on financial markets.

I am also a very experienced programmer (over 30 years of experience) from very low level stuff like embedded register level applications (microcontrollers, microprosessors, assembly language etc.) where you R&D your own bios and operating systems up to the database systems in large scale. Lot of projects done during my active years in that field.

---

I set up this thread to bring up things which "normal" short term trader from financial markets may face while trying to trade roulette by the rules and analysis done on the other side. Thread where we can discuss things without developing any specific system or strategy. We can do this on the more appropriate areas on this site.

First of all I have to say that I see the main difference between these areas are

a) price has a memory
b) price moves because of the people

There is lot of talk in the net about the trading it is a random walk and cannot be traded by the technical analysis. I am not going to go into that debate I just say I am a living example YOU CAN do not listen the bs what the professors and other important people are trying to tell you. The case is just they did not succeed and this is why they try to prove the cause of something else (randomness) than they self :D

Now they say I am succesfull because I have a skill. This is very true. You need a lot of exercise (years) and self control to become something. It is the very same in any profession. Trading is not an exception in this. And every experienced trader knows the end game is you in the mirror. Period.

Trading is a mental war 80% (which has the main influence for your execution) then comes money and position management and after these important things far behind comes those Setups.

After all I went a little a bit for the way of that debate and did a small comparison between the outcomes from the roulette table and EUR/USD (EuroFx futures at CME) currency pair.

They say the real randomness must produce a solid noise. Here is an example what I did from the 1 million spins data found in this site. I did a small C# app which converted those spins into a bitmap (idean took from random.org, thanks Irish guys, Go McGregor Go !). Every white dot tells us how well we hit odd numbers:



So if the random data must look like this fine noise then the Euro's Noise must look the same right ?

Well here is the Euro where white dot tells you when the price went up and black if it went down:



(btw. I hope these picutres can be seen in their original sizes without any zoom in or out)

As you can clearly see we are no more talking about randomness in this picture (at the level as the previous example). There is a clear difference between these pictures. I say: memory and people came into the game.

---

So why I am telling this for you is that I see we cannot copy technical analysis 1:1 from the financial markets when we are going to sit at roulette table. The supply/demand does not work here. Trendlines or horizontal support/resistance should be worthless. No buying or selling pressure. You cannot read the roulette "market" by that way. This is my first impressions in this field BUT MY MIND IS STILL OPEN AND THINGS CAN CHANGE.

The question is can the technical analysis and trading mentality from financial markets work at least in some level here at the roulette table. This is the goal in my journey here.

I am just at the beginning on my career in roulette tables  (hobby) so please for give me my mistakes and some level ignorance but I will improve. It is a sure thing !

Thanks
Tick
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 07:59:29 PM by tickseeker »


 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Bayes, scepticus, Reyth

scepticus

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2071
  • Thanked: 428 times
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2016, 08:32:53 PM »
Hi Tick (  talk ! ? )
Lone wolf and Bayes may be interested in your approach .
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3664
  • Thanked: 1143 times
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2016, 08:54:50 PM »
I agree, there is clearly a difference between the two pictures and btw, that is pure genius, THANK YOU!

Ok, here is what we in roulette have going for us where trading has people buying and selling:

Roulette is governed by the rules of true random which means that the results according to equal chances MUST BE UPHELD.  This is why we will probably never see in our lifetimes 5 of a single number appearing in a row, nor are we likely to ever see 26 reds or black (or any other combination of EC's) in a row.

Our struggle is to find a way of detecting a pattern that is accessible using this law of Equal Chances LimitationTM so that we can bet it and win without having $1M in bankroll or hitting the table limits.

I guess the questions would be:

1) Why should trading symbology (charting) be able to help us find these exploitable patterns?
1a) And how?
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 09:01:00 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

scepticus

  • Hero Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2071
  • Thanked: 428 times
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2016, 09:21:44 PM »
5 in a row has been seen, Reyth.
I think the main problem is interpreting the chart- data- information and ,  as you say , how to make use of it.   
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3664
  • Thanked: 1143 times
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2016, 09:31:31 PM »
This is where our AP friends' understanding of wheel bias comes in.  The chances of a number repeating successively 5 times is greater than 1q:1; I personally suspect wheel bias to be the culprit but I guess it doesn't matter, what matters is that true random has practical limits and those practical limits are the driving force of roulette instead of people buying and selling.

The reason why NONE OF US see 5 in a row while playing is because of the force of Equal Chances LimitationTM

To the argument of EVENTUALLY YOUR PRACTICAL LIMIT WILL BE SURPASSED AND YOU WILL LOSE...

EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I reply:

1) You have no way of knowing that for certain
2) There is no reason why my loss cannot be configured to a lower amount than all my gains
3) The rarity of this once in a lifetime event should be taken into account
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 09:44:10 PM by Reyth »
 

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2016, 08:32:35 AM »
1) Why should trading symbology (charting) be able to help us find these exploitable patterns?
1a) And how?

At this point I think the biggest advantage about charting could be the visualization. Large number of occurences can be understood much quicker and easier from something we can see by our own eyes than from pure numbers or thoughts. Of course we have to be aware those fallacy traps but anyway.

The 2nd question is of course the toughest one. Currently I research streaks/trends/clustering in randomness. I feel it is the way to go. Basically you do not know when the streak starts and how long it runs but what you know they will occur. This is what I try to understand better from the point of management and strstegy itself.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 09:09:29 AM by tickseeker »
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Bayes

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 688
  • Thanked: 553 times
  • roulettician.com
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2016, 10:01:31 AM »
Welcome to the forum tickseeker, and nice post.  :)

You're right that unlike trading, roulette has no psychological element, so it isn't true to say that "the trend is your friend", because an apparent trend can change at any time with no warning.

But also unlike trading, you can calculate the probabilities of runs and gaps, clusters etc, since roulette outcomes follow a definite pattern and are purely mechanical. This at least gives a certain objectivity to roulette. The use of technical indicators in trading can seem quite subjective (and has been criticized as such).
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 10:03:19 AM by Bayes »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Reyth

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3664
  • Thanked: 1143 times
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2016, 02:53:23 PM »
I think its easy to say that technical indicators are subjective (and some of them actually are!) but just like with candlestick trading, there are fundamental reasons behind the patterns; e.g. a narrow sideways channel, we bet the break because it indicates a real world event that has caught on with the stock/commodity holders.

But unfortunately, desipite this, I must agree that finding trends in the straightforward way simply doesn't work with roulette as evidenced by the graphics displayed in this post.

I still hold out hope for finding a counter-intuitive way of using technicals to our advantage...
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2016, 04:17:32 PM »
Here is an example how a chart visualization can help us to understand things much easier.

For example we know the House Edge in European roulette is 1,35% but what it really means in real life ?
By the charts you can quickly and clearly see the situation:



(Zero hits are shown as negative bars in the bottom panel which shows the individual spinned numbers)
(Each line represents the cumulative results of each spin)


This tells us how badly the house edge will hit us when the punter bets an EC bet (reds). See the white line (no house edge) and black line (with house edge). The difference during 3 days (1 spin = 50 seconds) was 68.5 units for the house. No question anymore what is the difference !

So visualization helps !

Tick

Edit
Some percentage hassle
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 07:05:56 PM by tickseeker »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, december

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2016, 04:33:59 PM »
Here is an another example how the charts may help you to understand system's behaviour in different settings. For example you have a silly strategy to wait some Reds until you make a Black bet:



(For colors and settings please see the chart title)
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 07:05:21 PM by tickseeker »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

Sputnik

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 517
  • Thanked: 421 times
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2016, 04:45:21 PM »

My opinion is that you can not take advantage out of 50/50 random bits.
And the house edge is 1.35% with La Partage rule and a good reason why i play EC with succés.

My opinion is that you need to use Markow Chains or Sequential betting where the odds is different and not a 50/50 situatuon.
I suggest you look into clustering or create some kind of Matrix where the odds and probability is different.

No one the last 300 years has succed using Red/Black patterns or waves into a winning method.
Is time to think out of the box.
 

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2016, 04:48:24 PM »
By these latest 2 posts I also introduced my development and backtesting platform which is Amibroker Pro. IMO the best retail side analysis and strategy development application for technical analysis. Very fast and has everything you will ever need. I've been using it since 2005.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 04:52:47 PM by tickseeker »
 

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2016, 04:51:06 PM »

My opinion is that you can not take advantage out of 50/50 random bits.
And the house edge is 1.35% with La Partage rule and a good reason why i play EC with succés.

My opinion is that you need to use Markow Chains or Sequential betting where the odds is different and not a 50/50 situatuon.
I suggest you look into clustering or create some kind of Matrix where the odds and probability is different.

No one the last 300 years has succed using Red/Black patterns or waves into a winning method.
Is time to think out of the box.

You got me wrong.

That was NOT an example of a betting system or strategy. I was just talking about HOW THE VISUALIZATION by using the charts can help you to understand different kind of aspects of the thing you are researching. Many times the picture tells more than 1000 words :)

I saw this topic to worth to say because I do not see much charting here...

If some day I am able (hope so) to introduce you some kind of strategy or even a system I will do it in the other areas than "Casino Lounge".

Anyway thanks for correcting me about the house edge...
« Last Edit: December 24, 2016, 05:18:08 PM by tickseeker »
 

tickseeker

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 37
  • Thanked: 39 times
  • Gender: Male
  • It takes courage to be a Pig
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2016, 05:17:02 PM »
Welcome to the forum tickseeker, and nice post.  :)
But also unlike trading, you can calculate the probabilities of runs and gaps, clusters etc, since roulette outcomes follow a definite pattern and are purely mechanical. This at least gives a certain objectivity to roulette. The use of technical indicators in trading can seem quite subjective (and has been criticized as such).

Thx and you are right. In trading (financial) you can calculate propabilities only for the past. There is no such a thing as propability in the same sense as it works in roulette or poker for example.
 

Sputnik

  • Veteran Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 517
  • Thanked: 421 times
Re: Traders at the roulette table
« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2016, 05:40:54 PM »

tickseeker i apoliges i rush into argument and read topic to fast.
Yes La Partage Rule is great, you lose half your bet if zero strike and keep the other half.

Keep up the good work.
If you want some basic and good roulette books you can PM me and i will give you a copy.

Cheers