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Author Topic: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN  (Read 35714 times)

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TERMINATOR

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #330 on: April 06, 2017, 12:17:30 AM »
@ Palestis

I also improved the Excel document with your Progression as well, with mouse over comments added.

- UPDATE -

There were some errors in the last upload, I corrected this in the 2nd attachment below.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2017, 03:09:10 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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jekhb76

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #331 on: April 06, 2017, 06:04:35 AM »
@TERMINATOR

Sorry man, been very bussy the last couple of days, so didn't had the time to check my mail. Will go through it later today. Will get back to you.

About the Whitticker progression;
In theory it won't lose, but i will worn you all that it can be a real grind to climb out of big holes. But I think it's a very safe and stable progression that can be even extended to 30 spins, with the right bankroll of course. Also I like to point out, that it is not my own creation. I found it on the Roulette forum.cc posted by Hermes. so all the credits goes to him and lucy. take care friends.
 

Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #332 on: April 08, 2017, 08:34:09 AM »
Since we have various progressions put forward for this system I was curious what the results would be for each, given this sequence of wins and losses (note that the losses are for individual bets, not sets of 3).

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88 bets, 20 wins. A tough session (only about 1% would be worse). My currently favoured progression generated the following stats:

Max drawdown 80 units
Max balance 11 units
Final balance 9 units
Largest stake 21 units

How does your progression do?
 
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kav

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #333 on: April 08, 2017, 08:52:19 AM »
Good question Bayes and nice sequence. I will do this test later. Your progression (Holloway) ended 9 units in profit?! That's a pretty good performance.
 

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #334 on: April 08, 2017, 08:55:36 AM »
Kav, no, not the Holloway. I'm currently experimenting with various progressions. I'll reveal it when there have been some responses (if any) and post the full sequence again with stakes and bankroll.

But I will test the Holloway on this. Now that you mention it I'm curious how it would do.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #335 on: April 08, 2017, 11:11:23 AM »
If l had this type of session, l would run, instead of thinking about progressions.
    I strongly advise for anyone following:
    When nothing sims to work properly, go to eat an ice cream.  It's more beneficial to wait a bit till things normalise.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2017, 05:41:33 PM by kav »
 

Bayes

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #336 on: April 08, 2017, 12:31:52 PM »
Walking away is an option, but usually the damage is done before you walk away.

Quote
It's more beneficial to wait a bit till things normalise.

Ah, if only it were that easy. If this were true then no one would ever have a bad run. Truth is, you can make up some arbitrary stop loss or wait for some "virtual" wins, but the sequence from hell could just as easily occur in one session broken up, or over several separate sessions of play. Waiting for virtual wins could even make things worse. In the above session if after the 12 consecutive losses I decide to quit and wait for some wins. After the 3 wins I start betting again, only to see another 8 losses in a row! So I have now encountered 20 losses in a row instead of 12 and missed out on the wins because I was waiting for things to "normalise".

 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #337 on: April 08, 2017, 02:37:15 PM »
OK. .. lm helpful exeptionally today, so l will reveal in " print" RIGHT HERE AND RIGHT NOW... the only and most practical way TO BE A WINNER, Or at least to have a chance to be one.
   There is one simple rool how to win in roulette. System players especially,  but not exclusively  ( many" AP l wanna be "as well), should wright it down on the wall in huge RED CAPITAL LETTERS.
    The rool is very simple, very straightforward. 
.
    " WHEN IT'S GOOD - HIT.  WHEN NOT GOOD - RUN".
    So every spin ( before or after your bets) you have to look at the situation you are facing. ...
     In short, pay atention.   
  Following this simple rool will make you a winner on the long run. HG , Bro. 
« Last Edit: April 08, 2017, 02:38:57 PM by MrPerfect. »
 
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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #338 on: April 08, 2017, 03:37:20 PM »
Bayes wrote:
Quote
Max drawdown 80 units
Max balance 11 units
Final balance 9 units
Largest stake 21 units

My Modified Palestis’s Progression:

Max drawdown 62 units
Max balance 10 units
Final balance 9 units
Largest stake 32 units

Summery:

The middle 2 stats are about equal.

Even though Bayes session had the least biggest stake (difference of 11 units),
my session was down the least amount of debt (difference of 18 units).

Good progression, Bayes!
« Last Edit: April 08, 2017, 04:02:26 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #339 on: April 08, 2017, 04:36:05 PM »
It's not a good progression. It's a progression from hell. If someone does progressions to overcome HUGE DESADVANTAGE , he simply has problems with a common logic. Such a person can be compared to a fellow who try to consume coffee with the fork, or noodles with the spoon.
    For system play progressions are used when you have a random game. Random game mean that your overall expectation to hit is equal or near basic probability values.
     In this example is clear that something else is hitting, but not the dousen that is expected to hit. So it's simply wrong dousen choice. Need to select other dousen instead of relying on progressions to survive.
      Make simple calculations..  20 hits devided by 88 spins, use calculator if needed.  Result is as far from basic expectation as it can be .
     Instead of something that at least have expected chance to hit, normally " system players" choose something completely wrong. 30% of negative expectation on 12 numbers!!!! It's so near to worst case scenario possible!!! It's nemesis to the roulette player. Throwing chips to the layout without looking at all would produce far better situation.
     One patological looser chooses worst bet possible, other congratulate him on good progression. Are you guys out of your mind????
  Case equates to 7 DAMN ZEROES on the roulette wheel!!!! Seven. IT'S HUMANLY NOT POSSIBLE TO MAKE DESISIONS WORST THEN THAT. Humanly imposible....
    And no need to tell me that such a situation accounts for 1% likehood. This is your REALITY. This is what you guys face day after day.
 

kav

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #340 on: April 08, 2017, 05:45:23 PM »
When you say "Final Balance": 9
is this a profit or what's left from your initial capital?
If its profit, I think it's better to describe it as "Profit" or "+9"
 

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #341 on: April 08, 2017, 07:11:04 PM »
Yes, Profit of 9 units. Considering it would have been a 48 unit LOSS if flat betting, it's a good result.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2017, 07:18:59 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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kav

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #342 on: April 08, 2017, 07:58:04 PM »
Can you please describe the progression again Term, so we are all on the same page?
Thanks
 

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2X Divisor
« Reply #343 on: April 08, 2017, 09:42:50 PM »
Sure:

1-2-2-
2-2-4
4-4-8
8-8-16
16-16-32
32-32-64

Now, Palestis originally played this by the following: if you are not at least tied with your previous high when you win, you RESTART the level you are on.

So, for example, if you are on the 4th betting level (8-8-16), and you WIN, but you have not at least broken even with your previous high (i.e., 4 units away from break even), you restart the betting with an 8 unit bet from the same level 4 (8-8-16).

This is risky to me, because we are risking way more than we should (risking 8 units to win 4, and winning 16 units when we only need 4), because if a bad streak starts here it will raise our bets very quickly and puts us closer to bust on a smaller bankroll
(or table limit).

My modification is the following:
However many units we are away from a tie with our previous high, we DIVIDE by 2 and start at the level that begins with THAT amount.


Example #1:
Let's say we won on the 4th betting level. We are 4 units away from break even. We DIVIDE 4 by 2, and get 2. So, we drop to the level that begins with a 2 unit bet (2-2-4). So, we would begin the next betting at level 2 instead of level 4.

Example #2:
We are at level 7 and win. If we are 12 units below our last high (meaning we are 12 units away from a tie with our previous high point in the game), we divide 12 by 2 and get 6. There is no level that begins with 6, so we go UP the progression and play the next closest one, which would be 8 (not 4). So, we begin the next bet with an 8-8-16 progression (Level 4).

Example #3:
Let's say we win at level 3 (4-4-8), and after we divide by 2, we get 8! We do NOT start at a higher betting level than the level we are currently on. So, in this case, we would still begin with a 4 unit bet (not 8 units), which would mean we start betting at Level 3.

This helps prevent the progression from getting out of control in the case of a bad streak.

 
« Last Edit: April 27, 2017, 12:45:11 PM by TERMINATOR »
 
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kav

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Re: NEW SYSTEM: SINGLE DOZEN
« Reply #344 on: April 09, 2017, 03:12:57 AM »
Bayes wrote:
Quote
Max drawdown 80 units
Max balance 11 units
Final balance 9 units
Largest stake 21 units

My Modified Palestis’s Progression:

Max drawdown 62 units
Max balance 10 units
Final balance 9 units
Largest stake 32 units

Summery:

The middle 2 stats are about equal.

Even though Bayes session had the least biggest stake (difference of 11 units),
my session was down the least amount of debt (difference of 18 units).

I tested my Very conservative progression:
1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3
4 4 4
5 5 5
6 6 6
7 7 7
8 8 8
9 9 9
10 10 10

Max draw-down: -115 units
Max balance: 1 unit
Final balance: -106 units
Largest stake: 9 units

From first sight the results seem disastrous and they are. This is not the kind of progression that can recoup big losses in a couple of hits. Yet it is a progression that can stand much longer and worse losing sequences with less losses than the more aggressive progressions that can recoup losses fast but can amount much bigger losses if the bunch of hits doesn't come soon enough.

In the test sample we have 20 wins in 88 spins. Here is another sequence with the same number of wins distributed differently

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If someone can devise (not reverse engineer) a progression (within realistic bankroll/bet limits) that can produce a profit in the above sequence, then I think we have a winner - it is too hard.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 03:26:59 AM by kav »
 
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