Author Topic: Probabilities before and after the event  (Read 10030 times)

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Reyth

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #90 on: August 16, 2016, 11:46:37 AM »
Ya but we all agree that they don't actually exist per se but I have wondered many times on how many of the isolated brick & mortar results that have exceeded our simulations were based on imperfect wheels or other forces.

I think Jesper had mentioned quite a long time ago now that he once played a single number for I think over 600 spins without seeing a hit and this happened more than once in the particular casino he played at.

I get why your systems are so focused on proper wheel distribution and its not just because the wheel is a sort of an "extension of the felt".

Anyway, my simulations have shown that Pales-Harry are right when they say that the odds of a rare thing failing successively in a row are rarer than them failing once and I have also shown that changing the configuration of the approach in trigger, betting range & progression length will not only affect the overall cost but also the length of the max expected loss.

I think I decided to stop looking at it because I felt that waiting for a trigger of 7 EC's in a row in order to gain a single unit was a bit much but I think I realize now how much of an accomplishment it really is, like Mr. J pointed out, even winning just 4 units is amazing. 

As it turns out, 7 EC's isn't that bad... :D
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 12:00:25 PM by Reyth »
 

palestis

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #91 on: August 16, 2016, 11:52:46 AM »

Imagine this scenario. Someone is observing a number repeat 8 times (or whatever the realistic upper limit) then another player comes to the table and for the next 8 spins he sees the same number repeats itself 8 more times (the repeats limit for the second observer). Then a third person comes to the table and it is perfectly possible that he will observe the same number repeat another 8 times because he has not reached his limit. The problem is that the first person who sits on the table all this time has now seen the same number repeat 24 times!
That's basically what it comes down to.
Let's take a more realistic event rather then the almost impossible 8 repeats of the same number.
A streak of 5,6,8,10 or whatever black in a row. As you walk around among many active roulette tables you will find that it's not that rare to observe a situation like this. Whether it is red or black or odd or even or 3 same DS's. If this situation is a virtual loss for me, I count on the fact that there will be at least one streak break in the next few spins.
But if my virtual losses don't count and the distant horizon becomes even more distant, simply because of my arrival at this table, ( and the roulette read my mind), then all players that happen to be playing  what I plan to bet on,  will be forced to see a new record. Or be PUNISHED, simply because  of my way of thinking as I came up to that table. Then if someone else thinking like me came up to the table, I will be forced to lose because A NEW STATISTIC has to be constructed specifically for the new player to push the horizon even further in a greater distance.  Ignoring every player that has been there earlier. 
If that was the case then we would be witnessing "horror streaks" a lot more often. But we don't. Fortunately.
Virtual losses count and count heavily. And there are a lot of players using them without realizing that they use them. In fact most players moving around from table to table that's exactly what they do. Some follow the streak, the others go against it. if those who go against it are doomed, then we would be seeing streaks that we never saw before. But we don't. Something, some higher power makes sure that things remain normal, most of the time.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 08:27:32 PM by palestis »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #92 on: August 16, 2016, 12:27:17 PM »
Scep,

Let's not put people into camps. Everyone has his own knowledge, views and personality.
Reyth, BA, Palestis, you, Bayes, Bebe, me, Real, Harry, Sputnik etc. .... each one is a unique person. Not any two of us agree on everything. There are no camps. And the difference of opinion, knowledge, experience etc. raises issues and gives reason for discussion.

I really believe that Bayes' (and most members here) only concern is the "truth". He does not gain satisfaction by telling people they are wrong and he is courteous. And with his posts and site and his helpful programs he is an asset to the roulette community.

After all we all want the same thing, to beat the game.
Let's be courteous and try to not make it personal.
Kav
it is the AP that have put us into "camps" -and you have allowed them to tell us - persistently -that we are  talking  nonsense. Why should we not respond in kind ?
There is no advantage in roulette but there is a disadvantage to those who bet "every" spin and those of us who  use virtual so IMO it is clearly wrong to advise people to bet every spin where a loss is "expected" over every 37 spins.
 

Reyth

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #93 on: August 16, 2016, 12:50:17 PM »
Hey, did I hear you right when you said it was Bayes that discovered a practical limit of 65 EC's in 200 spins?

Also on the Pales-Harry Range Technique, I am wondering if this can be readily applied to other bet selections since 1 unit profit from an EC is a tiny bit tedious.  Pales just mentioned a DS as an example.  So lets look at that:



The bet cycle here is 5 spins to 1 and the range of interest appears to be in spins 14-27.  Maybe spins 15-30 would be convenient since we are dealing groupings of 5 spins.  So a range of 15-30 would represent 3 cycles of 5, so in my mind that would be 3 actual bets.

On the trigger, a double street will go missing 15 times about 7% of the time which is maybe once in every 14 spins?  .07=100/7=14.29?

That is not too bad right?

Then the idea is to bet it 15 times with an overall chance of hitting at 99.41%.  That's not bad and we have a chance at dynamic profit.

I think the betting progression could look like:

1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 = 47 units

Now the question becomes, how often will this fail in a row.  Like Pales has pointed out, THAT IS THE QUESTION.  My guess is that it will not fail more than 4 times in a row as presented (we will definitely beat the 84 expected max loss).  If we wish to get that down to 3, we will need to lengthen the progression AND/OR lengthen the trigger, POSSIBLY BOTH.

Well it means we have to run a simulation and I am starting work soon so...

Code: [Select]
10 RANDOMIZE TIMER
20 r = INT(RND * 37): LOCATE 1, 1: PRINT ml
25 IF tr = 15 THEN 50 'process trigger hit
30 IF r < 31 THEN tr = tr + 1: GOTO 20
40 tr = 0: GOTO 20

50 'trigger has hit
60 bc = bc + 1
70 IF r >= 31 THEN bc = 0: tr = 0: GOSUB 200: GOTO 20 'hit achieved within progression
80 IF bc < 15 THEN 20 'miss

90 'progression has failed
100 l = l + 1: tr = 0: bc = 0: GOTO 20

200 'process loss counter
210 IF ml < l THEN ml = l
220 l = 0: RETURN



5 means there is over 75 spins of consecutive loss.  It took millions of spins to go from 4 to 5 so I suspect it doesn't move very far into that 6th level but obviously these initial results are unacceptable.

Now its down to some combination of lengthening the progression & the trigger...

21 trigger, 15 progression brings it down to 4 losses...
21 trigger, 20 progression brings it down to 3 losses...
21 trigger, 22 progression brings it down to 2 losses* <=== this is to be desired

This finals at 21 trigger & 22 progression where neither can go any lower and only have 2 expected consecutive losses.

1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 17, 21, 25, 30 = 176 units
36,36,36,36,36,72,72,72,108,108,144,180,216,252,288,360,432,504,612,756,900,1080 = 6336 units

For a total bankroll of 6512 units.  This is the very steepest required.  We should verify how many hits on the second level actually occur...  As I suspected it goes all the way to 22 full bets on the second level.  Because these bets are so expensive, it makes sense to attempt to reduce these...

Of course Pales-Harry don't play it this way because like I said I tend to be one-dimensional.  Also making a note to self that there is a third level that needs mapping... >.<

Ok continuing on here:

30 trigger and 23 betting range will only fail once, extending 20 bets into level 2 for a total of 43 bets

which appears as:

1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 17, 21, 25, 30,36 = 212 units
36,36,36,36,72,72,72,108,108,144,180,216,252,288,360,432,504,612,756,900 = 5256 units

A 30 trigger is ridiculous for a double street and so the goal is to bring that down.

A 30 betting range and 25 trigger will only fail once, extending 25 bets into level 2 for a total of 55 bets
« Last Edit: September 24, 2016, 05:07:12 AM by Reyth »
 
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Jesper

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #94 on: August 16, 2016, 02:23:37 PM »
I lost big once when a DS slept for 91 spins. That  about 1200 (Euro) was at 87% won before the bust, so it was not all that terrible.  It is allways nice to get some win (20-80 average a day(Euro)), but we should know  some of it will go when the RFH is present. Stoploss can not help, we never know when it turns better, and narrow stoploss make them happen more often.  I think a large bank (which can on low chips means moderat money) and do not hesitate to "chase the loss" , it pays off often. Do not think it has to be NOW, we have the time, take a break.

Many roulette players are over 65 years, and that make sense, (in the long run we are all dead(John Maynard Keynes)).
 
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Reyth

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #95 on: August 16, 2016, 02:44:54 PM »
Well one thing is that Pales-Harry has your back because the segmented attack will always do better than one elongated progression.  This is because, as they explain, you only confront one trigger event at a time and if it fails in your range, you go and get another trigger and because the chance of the progression failing again and again with such great odds to hit is so rare, we will achieve better results than one straight progression.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 02:47:44 PM by Reyth »
 
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Jesper

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #96 on: August 16, 2016, 02:48:41 PM »
Well one thing is that Pales-Harry has your back because the segmented attack will always do better than one elongated progression.

"Can" OK but not "Allways". Next number we know when it is fallen. Next hundred numbers we know some more about before, which just may be a win.

.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 02:50:57 PM by Jesper »
 

Reyth

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #97 on: August 16, 2016, 03:04:46 PM »
Well for me, if I run 16M, 32M 48M spins etc. and I don't see any more losses than 44 in a row, I take that as a sign that I am pretty secure in knowing that's the worst I can expect to see.
 

Real

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #98 on: August 16, 2016, 08:09:32 PM »
No zero:

When it comes to the ECs, the probability of seeing the next longer losing run is pretty much as simple as multiplying the previous probability of shorter length x 2.

If you think the probability of seeing 44 in a row is the max, then you are again...wrong!

1/2^44 becomes/1 2^45.  If you've just had specifically 44 blacks in a row, then the chance of seeing another one is still just 1 in 2.

So if you had to run a gazillion trials in order to see 44 in a row, then you need to run about 2x as many to see 45 in a row.  (Think a gazillion x 2.)

You will experience variance in these "run lengths"....meaning that you won't always see a run of 10 blacks in a row every 1024 spins.  You may see none, you may some that are much longer. 

Now for you system junkies using triggers, if you Really want to know what the longest run could be on either the red or the black simply follow the simple two step formula below.

1. Simply take the number 2 (as in two chances) and divide by 2 until you reach zero.   
2. Next, once you reach zero, simply count the number of times that you had to divide and this will tell you what the max run can be on either the red or the black

 This will tell you the max length you should consider, it will give the you highest level of confidence when playing your triggers, and it will help maximize your wins!

Note: In order to find the true max runs you must use a pen and paper because a calculator will round off creating an error in the calculation.  Again, you must keep dividing until you actually reach zero.

Best of luck,

-Really   ;D
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 08:42:20 PM by Real »
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #99 on: August 16, 2016, 09:21:58 PM »
Infinity?  Since continually dividing by 2 will never get to zero.
(2/2), (1/2), (.5/2), (.25/2), (.125/2)..........
Oops...did I spill the beans?
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 09:29:28 PM by Sheridan44 »
 

Real

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #100 on: August 16, 2016, 09:29:24 PM »
Infinity?  Since continually dividing by 2 will never get to zero.
(2/2), (1/2), (.5/2), (.25/2), (.125/2)..........

If you're someone that believes in triggers, then you need to know that number.  So don't give up so easily:)
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 09:31:42 PM by Real »
 
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Sheridan44

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #101 on: August 16, 2016, 09:43:54 PM »
Well Real, it's gonna take a helluva lotta pens and paper.....LOL  ;)
 

scepticus

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #102 on: August 16, 2016, 10:11:08 PM »
Well Real, it's gonna take a helluva lotta pens and paper.....LOL  ;)

Tut. Tut, Sheridan
dontyaknow  that Real is "educating" you !
Just like the Long Run you never reach zero. Only what maths geeks consider zero.
Real, though, knows differently. Perhaps he will take his own advice and post his view on a Maths site !
 
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Real

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #103 on: August 16, 2016, 10:26:44 PM »
Quote
Just like the Long Run you never reach zero. Only what maths geeks consider zero.-Scepticus

Scepticus,

Have you tried?  Do you have proof?
« Last Edit: August 16, 2016, 10:39:49 PM by Real »
 

scepticus

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Re: Probabilities before and after the event
« Reply #104 on: August 16, 2016, 11:22:44 PM »
Quote
Just like the Long Run you never reach zero. Only what maths geeks consider zero.-Scepticus

Scepticus,

Have you tried?  Do you have proof?
The onus is on you to provide proof. You know 2 divided by 2 divided by 2 etc.
While you are at it please provide proof that  your 5/37 bet is valid when you yourself have told us that
x/ 37 is x/37 .