Betchain usa friendly 728x90

Author Topic: Bullseye  (Read 14075 times)

Reyth

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Re: Bullseye
« Reply #90 on: Yesterday at 08:44:26 PM »
Ok, good point.  You bring up the issue of the PLE (Progresion Loss Event):BSE (Black Swan Event) which varies depending on the Progression Length, which yields a % chance (PLP).

Let's compare (percentages are estimates for ease of use):

PLP......PLE.....EARN.....LOSS.....HITS REQ
95%....1:24.....403........495.........3
99%....1:101...1750......2455.......42

The 95% method yields a HR:PLE ratio value of 8 vs. 2.4 of the 99% method.

As I have said several times, I tend to be mentally slow and especially at maths.  Your observation is incredible!  You are clearly showing that the -495 method is actually LESS risky than the 99% method!!  I was INCORRECT in assuming that increasing the win rate automatically decreased the risk!!  I failed to take into account the disparate cost.

Thanks so much for this! :D

Now, this method is about scrapping and so its better to scrap with less risk, so I will switch back to the -495 method at 95%.  One good thing that I have noticed is the relation between the short-term expectation of hits:spins and the chances of a BSE.  Let's experiment some more and see if this new info can be useful! :D



+28 +6 +19 +8 +30 +37=+129/+129 6/133 (6)  <=== 89 spins ABOVE expectation

This is very close to violating Rule #2, but for now let's institute a 2X expectation delimiter.  Continuing...

+33 +3 +14 +29 +52=+131/+260 5/205 (11)
« Last Edit: Today at 12:58:44 AM by Reyth »