Author Topic: Dobble's Short Run Theory  (Read 279 times)

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MrPerfect.

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2017, 10:20:47 AM »
 Dobbelsteen,  the thing is... l know next to nothing about " kinematic theory" , l just use what is based on practical observations.  What works for me is good enough,  do not see any benefit to complicate it. Most of processes going on in roulette spin l just copy by it's value without bothering with complex calculations. As they say " if it works, don't fix it"...
    There are many roulette computers on market, most of them are not worth hardware price. I get many reports from other players, they are struggling to make damn thing pay the rent. Often l come to rc sellers websites to read, just out of curiosity.  It results in desapointment from reading what they post there...
    About your " short term theory". I see nothing wrong with it. Unfortunately l do not see anything interesting about it as well( for myself) . If someday you start to calculate amount of trials nessesary to win in positive expectation situations,l will be your most devoted follower. For that you just need to change bet selection from some random group of numbers ( EC for example) , to something more interesting  ( bias numbers/ distances or whatever ).
     You are right, on some wheels result is manipulated, on others it's affected, however, as my studies show, it's not equal to randomness.  Same things that make manipulation posible often make a wheel more then predictable. Do you see, to manipulate, need to limit degrees of freedom as well.  And it's exactly what player should be looking for in this game.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2017, 03:38:17 PM »
I do not attack your method. I have not the skill and talent to predict the sector where the ball will land. I have a large experience with the performance of all kinds of random rows. The last 20 numbers and the stats of the large 50 numbers give me enough information for successful winning events within 10 spins. From the beginning I play always on more than 2 tables. I have not the time to watch what happens on the wheel.

My most well known system is SSB. All over the world there is interest in the Exel spread sheet.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2017, 06:36:38 PM »
I'm known to be curious about other people excel developments. :). I would like to have a look, if you do not mind.
    In no way lm criticising your methods or systems, lm just trying to figure out if it can be useful for what lm doing, somehow. 
 
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Reyth

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2017, 07:17:12 PM »
Hahah like we all are!  I have learned from my AP friends many things like:

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A roulette wheel is “biased” when at least one number consistently comes up more often than it should.

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...you’ll need to chart thousands of spins.

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If you don’t have the time for a charting 5,000 spins, you could look for sector bias, which doesn’t require as many spins to verify. This means that the ball is falling more often than it should in a certain section of the wheel. You bet the numbers in that section to exploit such a bias.

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Let’s look at the math. If your number comes up every 28 spins (on average), and you’re betting ten dollars each time, you’ll lose $270 ($10 x 27 spins) for every time you win $350 on that winning 28th spin (you’re paid 35 to 1). That’s a net profit of $80 for each 28 spins of the wheel.

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Even with a true bias, a favored number might not show up for 100 spins at some point. If that happens and you’re betting $10 each time, you’ll have lost $1,000 between wins.

All of this information has been very valuable to me. :D

As far as Dobble's Short Run Theory, I have found that when I reset a session, I get a brand new sequence that has its own unique bias.  This can be very helpful during bias shifts when longer-term dispersion is occurring so I can reset and get a clearer picture of things. :)
« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 07:23:01 PM by Reyth »
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2017, 01:08:31 PM »
MRPerfect. Here on the forum you can find a lot of Exel sheets from my hand. I do not sell any program.
All is free available for interested members. On all computer devices Excel is available. It is the best tool to practice roulette ideas. I do not understand why my programs receive so less respons.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2017, 07:52:35 PM »
 Dobbelsteen, l can judge only with myself as an example... but many people do the same. Folks in general only value things that they achieve with effort.
   I used to jump around offering help , knolidge .. ets, just to make people do something ( collect data, study, think..). And then someone told me " if it would be any good, it would be offered for a price".  Well..  l took this advice seriously.  Sims working up till now.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2017, 10:04:43 AM »
MrPerfect. Thanks for your advice. You can buy my Excel sheets . 10 euro for one sheet and 20% discount for 10 sheets.I will send you the programs by email. Go to rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl for more info
 

scepticus

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2017, 10:58:25 AM »
Short runs ARE different from Long Runs which is why our critics say that we can win in the Short Run but not in the Long Run.
 

thomasleor

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2017, 11:04:35 AM »
MrPerfect. Thanks for your advice. You can buy my Excel sheets . 10 euro for one sheet and 20% discount for 10 sheets.I will send you the programs by email. Go to rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl for more info

I can buy a hot dog, or good Hamburger  for the same price and have a far better experience, Dobbie.
10€ ?  Are you f...ing joking? What happened to you? Did you lose it all and went into desperation-mode?
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2017, 12:26:53 PM »
 Dobbelsteen,  if l find in your work something l could use on mine, l will be happy to pay price requested. I belive that work wich is useful should be payable.  Slavery time fortunately is over long ego .
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #25 on: October 12, 2017, 12:51:06 PM »
Scepticus. You must make a difference between methods and systems. On the long run every system will stabilize at 2,7% loss.  Profit and loss fluctuates in short run events. For all the number bets the turn over can be computed with roulette simulation programs.
The result is unpredictable. The successful player uses strategies and systems together.

For all my followers the results of my research stay free available
 

scepticus

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #26 on: October 12, 2017, 01:51:41 PM »
Dobbelsteen.
In practical terms there is no Long Run and a Prediction without a timeline is absurd.
No one can prove that " every system  will stabilise at a 2 . 7 % loss "  .That is an Expectation - not a fact . A newcomers need to understand  that he can lose 2 . 7% within a short period of time .
What we need to concentrate on is what to bet , when to bet and how much to bet with reference to the odds - on -offer -  at each session   Everything else is " NOISE " .
Incidentally , I think you overpay with your progression of 10 bets .
 
 

Real

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #27 on: October 12, 2017, 03:42:32 PM »
Short term systems inevitably become permanent losers over time.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #28 on: October 12, 2017, 04:34:01 PM »

I have published the results of many systems . DTOP is the place from where every system has a permanent loss.That is not a time. Roulette has no time line only a infinite sequence.

Computer simulation tell you the truth. Words can not explain.Here the graphic for a 18 number bet
« Last Edit: October 12, 2017, 04:36:04 PM by dobbelsteen »
 

Real

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Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
« Reply #29 on: October 12, 2017, 04:50:04 PM »
I don't know why you need to run a computer simulation to show that.  It's easily calculated.  At least we agree that the player will inevitably become a permanent loser.

By the way, what's also missing are the simulations that show a loss from the very first spin, showing that the player never even breaks even.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2017, 04:52:43 PM by Real »