Author Topic: The Long Run  (Read 2569 times)

kav

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2016, 01:38:05 PM »
Great article Bayes!
 
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Bayes

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2016, 12:41:46 PM »
Thanks Kav.

I've made a couple of minor changes to the article (added a column showing the results after 10,000 bets in the simulation), and also add a "Chebyshev calculator" at the end so you can play around with different values.

To be specific.
If I bet 2 dozens with one point on each  and then, on a win, bet the resultant 3 points on ONE dozen
can you calculate the Long Run of that ?

The numbers are in the table-

1 dozen : 10, 821 bets
2 dozens : 2,783 bets

Since you're going to hit the "long run" on the 2 dozen bet first, it might have implications for your system.

@ Reyth, thanks for the explanation. Thankfully there are few "system bashers" around, at least, few with the zeal of Real. To be fair though, he does know a helluva lot about roulette and biased wheels. And he's really not a bad guy. He just knows what works for him and he sticks with it.

For me, the fact that Roulette can be approached by the physical route or the system route gives the game added spice and dimension, never mind the "my way or the highway" guys.
 
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scepticus

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2016, 12:56:19 PM »
Thanks Bayes
The " system" I referred to uses a  Nine Column " chart "that guarantees 3 wins in 4 spins no matter the results of those four "spins" or " trials ". Assuming no zero occurs .The zero is EXPECTED to win only ONCE in a average 37 spins so we have " 36 windows of opportunity".
Reyth
I may owe you an apology here. When you said that one of the first two may be wrong  I was thinking of BEFORE the spins and  not AFTER the 2 spins as I think you meant .
 

Reyth

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2016, 01:26:11 PM »
never mind the "my way or the highway" guys.

IKR?  That is simply obnoxious even if they are completely right (HINT: they aren't).
 

scepticus

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2016, 03:09:31 PM »
Hi scepticus,

I agree with your points and think I have addressed them in the article.

@ Sheridan - thanks!

Bayes
In my thread " Scep's Roulette Strategies " I introduce  " Nine Blocks" from which I derive my bets.
At the time Real asked you  to" have fun with this " . Would you care to have a look at it and give me your opinion ? Good or Bad ! 
Thanks .
 

Bayes

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2016, 09:46:32 AM »
Hi scep,

I had some trouble understanding your system, if I remember rightly, but I'll take another look. Would it make any difference if I said it was rubbish?  ;)

IMO, if a system is working for you, keep using it until it goes pear-shaped.
 

scepticus

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2016, 01:03:14 PM »
Hi scep,

I had some trouble understanding your system, if I remember rightly, but I'll take another look. Would it make any difference if I said it was rubbish?  ;)

IMO, if a system is working for you, keep using it until it goes pear-shaped.

I am  not  concerned if you  - or anyone -think my idea is rubbish. I am only concerned with WHY you think it rubbish.
I think   that it is illogical for  anyone to claim that any idea is rubbish when they  also say  that they
 don't understand  iI . To do so smacks of prejudice - to prejudge ?
 

Bayes

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2016, 02:19:24 PM »
Probably wrong choice of words there. I didn't mean I think it's rubbish - that would be illogical because no, I haven't re-read it yet. It was a  hypothetical question.
 

Reyth

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2016, 07:28:22 PM »
I, for one, would love to hear your opinion as well because no matter what the truth is, there is some amazing and dynamic functionality in that system.
 

Bayes

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2016, 08:17:22 AM »
Reyth, it seems like you've understood scep's system, then. I often find it quite difficult to understand other people's complex systems because usually there are ambiguities. Perhaps you could explain it in simple terms?
 

Reyth

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2016, 09:49:28 AM »
I go into detail in the thread.  I think it might help you?
 

scepticus

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Re: The Long Run
« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2016, 01:38:54 PM »
Reyth, it seems like you've understood scep's system, then. I often find it quite difficult to understand other people's complex systems because usually there are ambiguities. Perhaps you could explain it in simple terms?

Hi Bayes
Since this was first aired in my thread Scep's Roulette Strategies" I'll go there and try to clarify what it is about. I have no maths training and understood the concept of " Sets of Three" right away so am puzzled why others don't understand the simple concept. Perhaps  my experience of gambling helped ?