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Author Topic: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)  (Read 8033 times)

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Marigny

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THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« on: June 18, 2010, 09:35:34 AM »
Good afternoon.
After some years (not many) as a player at the casino (land and internet) and after a lot that made me doubt the validity and fairness of land casinos (not to mention the internet ones *&^%$)...
And after listening to views from some old players for example that after thousands of balls, the numbers and the frequency of their occurrence balances out... And after all this talk about the house edge...

I decided to do an experiment by my own.
This experiment aims to find out what is the REAL HOUSE EDGE in casinos. When I say real house edge, of course I mean to play regularly and cold with my own money. And not just record spins without playing.
Believe me, there is a difference.
And if you don't believe me, you have to do the same test yourself.

So far I have played/bet 420 spins (seven viosits, 60 spins per visit) playing consistenly 16 or 15 numbers and recording the returns of each day and the average returns and losses.

I will post the results of the previous 7 casino visits in the mext posts and then I will continue to add the results of each new visit and calculate the total averages.

Sorry for the long prologue, but had to write these.


 

Marigny

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2010, 09:39:53 AM »
Just for the record:

The theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2,7%
This means that the returns should be 97,3% of the money wagered.

I seriously doubt that the actual house edge is only 2,7% and that tiny 2,7% is the reason for all the money the gamblers lose at the casinos. But we will see...
 

Marigny

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2010, 01:45:55 PM »
Day 1.
Spins 60. Game: 4 carre (16 numbers) turnover in chips 60x4 = 240
Hits: 19 Return = 171. Ie 71.25%. House edge -28.75%

Day 2.
Spins 60. Game: 5 streets (15 numbers) turnover in chips 60x5 = 300
Hits: 18 Return = 216. That is 72%. House edge -28%

Day 3.
Spins 60. Game: 5 streets (15 numbers) turnover in chips 60x5 = 300
Hits: 23 Return = 276. That is 92%. House edge -8%

Fourth day.
Spins 60. Game: 4 carre (16 numbers) turnover in chips 60x4 = 240
Hits: 22 Return = 198. That is 82.5%. House edge -17.5%

5th Day.
Spins 60. Game: 4 carre (16 numbers) turnover in chips 60x4 = 240
Hits: 23 Return = 207. Ie 86.25%. House edge -13.75%

6th Day.
Spins 60. Game: 4 carre (16 numbers) turnover in chips 60x4 = 240
Hits: 32 Return = 288. That is 120%. House edge 20%

Seventh day.
Spins 60. Game: 4 carre (numbers 16) turnover in chips 60x4 = 240
Hits: 24 Return = 216. Ie 90%. House edge -10%

Average rates of return: 87.71%
This means that House edge = -12.29%

These are the statistics for the first 7 days.
Every day I'll go to the casino I'll report my results and add them to previous results and

update the averages.

THE EXPERIMENT will be continued.
 

paixtis

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2010, 09:51:00 AM »
Nice experiment and I hope you continue it and let us know. But do you think 60 spins each day for one month is quite a significant sample to calculate accurately the casino house edge?

And what makes you think that the 1 in 37 advantage in each spin not enough for kazinos anyway?
 

Marigny

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2010, 07:21:29 PM »
The larger the sample the more objective the result will be.
(Of course do not expect me to play, and record 1,000,000 spins ..)
But so far the 420 spins are a much better sample than 60.

If you apply 1 / 37 (2.7%), then yes, it feels unimportant in relation to the 30 or 40% house edge of other casino games (slot machines). On the other hand, yes 2.7% can make a profit for the casino. but the biggest the house edge the better for the casino. And besides, IF it is proved that the real figure is far from the 2.7 then it means that there is no hope ever for the player to be a winner .. for obvious reasons ...

The research will go on. Though obviously I do not go to the casino every day. (As I mentioned above, every day I'm going to record 60 spins and will add them to the total stats.)

8th Day.
Balls 60. Game: 5 streets (15 numbers) turnover in chips 60x5 = 300
Hits: 16 Return = 192. That is 64%. house edge: -36%

Average rates:
Days 8. Spins 480
Return 84.75%. -15.25% house edge.


As you can see the eighth day was frustrating and the worst of the Experiment so far. It shoot the percentage of the REAL house edge to more than 15% (mean)!
« Last Edit: June 26, 2010, 06:02:28 PM by Marigny »
 

kav

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2010, 03:02:33 PM »
Very interesting experiment. I do not think I've seen something similar anywhere.
I agree that the sample is small. If you could increase to 100 balls per visit would be helpful.

And bravo to discipline yourself. One needs  great discipline to play throughout your visits consistently the same system and to stop at a predetermined number of spins.

But if the actual "house edge" is OVER 2.7%, what would be the explanation? Even if we assume that something "strange" can happen (the dealer or the guys watching the game from above) I do not think that they would ruin a player that plays five streets or four carres, but someone who plays heavily on straight up numbers.

Very interesting experiment - continue it please continue!

Also, because the eighth day was very unfortunate, I propose to continue the ninth day with the same streets, to see if it will make a correction.
 

Marigny

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2010, 06:03:27 PM »
But if the actual "house edge" is OVER 2.7%, what would be the explanation? Even if we assume that something "strange" can happen (the dealer or the guys watching the game from above) I do not think that they would ruin a player that plays five streets or four carres, but someone who plays heavily on straight up numbers.


Kav,
If the game is rigged, they would certainly not distinguish between those who bet a lot with those who bet less. For example, my bets in total, in these 8 days, are 10.500 € (turnover) and while I should be minus around 300 €, is more than -1600...
Imagine that playing straight up numbers!

And bravo to discipline yourself. One needs  great discipline to play throughout your visits consistently the same system and to stop at a predetermined number of spins.
My friend, I always played disciplined, but not so disciplined.
I must admit, that I reached this point because I got sick of all my systems finally losing and breaking for so many years. For unexplained reasons, of course... so I now try to find an explanation.

Also, because the eighth day was very unfortunate, I propose to continue the ninth day with the same streets, to see if it will make a correction.
Now I do not know if the next time I play exactly the same streets.
This is because as I write this, I no longer believe in the influence of previous spins.
(Of course this does not mean that I will play and the opposing streets)
« Last Edit: June 26, 2010, 06:10:31 PM by Marigny »
 

Marigny

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2010, 08:25:17 AM »
Friends Good evening .. or rather good morning.

Ninth day.
Spins 60. Game: 5 streets (15 numbers) turnover in chips 60x5 = 300
Hits: 24 Return = 288. That is 96%. Rake: -4%

Average rates:
Days 9. Spins: 540
Return of 86%. rake -14%.

Day 10th.
Balls 60. Game: 4 carre (16 numbers) turnover in chips 60x4 = 240
Hits: 25 Return = 225. Ie 93.75%. Rake -6.25%

Total. 10 days. Spins 600
Average return 86.78%
Average rake(house edge): -13.22%


On two recent days the rates of losses were smaller than average.
However, as known (so far) -13.22% is far worse from the (theoretical) -2.7%.
So when various people tell us that over time it is impossible for any system and method of roulette play to change the-2.7% to be even +1%, and that's the sole reason we lose... ???
When a casino employee told me the words .. 'Mathematics is absolute, whatever you do the -1/37 will prevail. The more you'll bet, the more you'll lose '

Let us explain how the 'absolute' -2,7% proves to be so far - 13% ? ;D
If -2.7% is impossible to become +1%, then how has it become -13%?!
 

Marigny

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2010, 01:36:12 PM »
Hello albalaha,

I agree mostly with what you wrote.
The thing is, they tell us the house edge is -2,7% and that's why we lose.
I always had an suspicion this is not the case and casinos somehow  :'( manage to make the edge in favor of them more than just 2,7%. That's why I started this experiment. To see if the house edge is the "fair" 2,7% or if it is (like I suspect) even more.

So far it proves to be MUCH more than just 2,7%.
And yes, I know the sample is yet too small, but...
 

Marigny

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2010, 06:39:14 AM »
Dear albalaha,
Thanks for your comments. Maybe my experiments is being misunderstood.
Please let me explain more clearly:
  • I do not record my profits. My experiment has nothing to do with bets or money. I record the returns in relation to the total turnover. And only that.
  • This experiment is not a way to make money, it is not a bet selection method. I just point out my bets FYI (for your interest) only.
  • It is a test to see if my returns are truly 97,3% of my total turnover (total wagered money) as it should be. It is a test to see how close or apart is the theoretical result to the actual, real life result.
  • This is not about the theoretical house edge. It is about the REAL LIFE house edge.
  • To give you an example: if a wheel is rigged, if the casino cheats you how would you know?! You would know if you find out that in the... "long run" your returns are much lower than the theoretically expected returns (97,3% in European roulette). That's what I test. See it as test if the casinos cheat us if you like...
 

Marigny

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Re: THE EXPERIMENT (real life house edge)
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2010, 04:06:08 AM »
3 more days. Disastrous results.

Day 11
60 spins. Bet:4 care (16 numbers) total bankroll: 60x4=240
Wins: 18 = return 162 ( 67,5%) House rake: -32,5%

Day 12
60 spins. Bet:5 streets (15 numbers) turnover 60x5=300 units
Wis: 19 = return 228units (76%). House edge -24%

Day 13
60 spins. Bet:4 care (16 numbers) turnover 60x4=240 units
Wins: 24 = Return 216 (90%). House edge -10%

Total. 13 days. Spins 780
Average return: 84,72 %
Average house edge: -15,28 %


As you can see I'm having extremely bad results. In 13 days, 12 are far worse than the theoretical -2,7% house edge. For a total return of 84,72% instead of th theoretical 97,3%