Author Topic: Bullseye  (Read 14358 times)

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3181
  • Thanked: 911 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #75 on: April 16, 2017, 09:53:08 AM »

[Demo] https://youtu.be/QqEqFwbLiUA
[Snap Back Technique] https://youtu.be/nqgf3E_9vdk
[Progression Loss Event] https://youtu.be/6XzGs3pfVxU

37 74 111 148 185 222 259 296 333 370 407 444 481 518 555 592 629 666 703 740 777
814 851 888 925 962 999 1036 1073 1110 1147 1184 1221 1258 1295 1332 1369 1406 1443 1480

+4 +44 +10 +20 +23=+101/+101 5/229
+25 +6 +12 +31 +28=+102/+203 5/108
+30 +1 +25 +35 +28=+119/+322 5/110
+3 +35 +35 +13 +35=+121/+433 5/102
+34 +11 +28 +20 +13=+106/+539 5/74
+29 +8 +2 +45 +35=+119/+658 5/309
+32 +2 +25 +70=+129/+787 4/164
+35 +30 +33 +28=+126/+913 4/53
+21 +33 +24 +33=+111/+1024 4/150 (42)
+29 +33 +17 +3 +2 +1 +12 +27=+124/+1148 8/298 (50)
+5 +20 +25 +68=+118/+1266 4/194
+15 +12 +13 +2 +3 +16 +31 +9 = +101/+1249 8/282 (62)
+29 +25 +11 +4 +28 +33=+130/+1379 6/189
+23 +1 +18 +35 +22 +26=+125/+1504 6/109 (74)
+29 +22 +52 = +103/+1607 3/144
+33 +56 +25 = +114/+1721 3/150 (80)
+9 +2 +23 +19 +33 +24 +44 = +154/+1875 7/197
+9 +66 +25 = +100/+1975 3/146 (90)
+20 +35 +13 +20 +31 +68 = +187/+2162 6/306 (96)

+19 +15 +46 +29=+109/+2271 4/164 (100) <=== now due
+3 +33 +34 +25 +10 +34=+139/+2410 6/251 (106)
+12 +33 +33 +8 +33=+119/+2529 5/61 (111) <=== greater balance than loss event accrued

+22 +30 +30 +26=+108/+2637 4/36 (115)
+34 +34 +24 +17 +68=+177/+2814 5/135 (120)
+25 +18 +27 +22 +33=+125/+2939 5/185 (125) <=== 25% overdue

+3 +58 +13 +30 +54=+158/+3097 5/239 (130)
+6 -2455 = -2449/+648

Level 2 Recovery.  Not too badly overdue; 1:132 vs. 1:101.  Target: +2441/51 coups

+93 +36 +54 +64=+247/+895 (134) [4]
+50 +10 +8 +66 +20 +34 +56=+244/+1139 (141) [11]
+14 +20 +54 +22 +44 +30 +16=+200/+1339 (148) [18]
+70 +46 +34 +54 =+204/+1543 (152) [22]
+60 +64 +56 +26=+206/+1749 (156) [26]

Important Note: A winning trend greater than expectation began on coup "+46" of the last session and has grown significantly larger.  Now we are at 27 hits in the last 915 spins which should be 999 spins; 84 spins difference.  This is scary and makes me think I need to unraise my chips.

When I see a gap of 85+ spins between hits, I know to raise a unit on the next bet because the chances of repeating that event is less than 1/2 percent and so when I see the OPPOSITE it definitely gets my attention; I have an 87 spin buffer within the progression, so I will spin on, expecting a long series of spins soon...

+44 +32 +10 +26 +12 +58 +70=+252/+2001 (163) [33] 34/1065


It has gotten now much worse; 34 hits in the last 1065 spins vs. the expected 1258 spins.  Isn't this over 4 SD?  193 spins now surpasses the progression.  I mean I get the fact that a progression loss will correct but this is a horrific over-correction at this point.

Do I continue for +322 units or 18 coups (expected 10 coups)?  Or do I let this go, due to the imminent danger?

We are 62 coups towards a progression loss (due in 49 coups).  This is putting my "scrapping skills" to the test...



It simply isn't worth the risk with two strong indicators that a correction is near:

1) Expectation from the lost progression event to the present coup event
2) Spins below expectation in an amount that is greater than the length of the progression

On top of this, we are at 62% towards a progression loss being actually due, which cannot be seen as weak.


"It seems luck is always against a man that depends on it", so let's not depend solely upon luck but prepare for what we know is soon to happen and continue to hope for luck anyway.

Level 1.

+29 +7 +15 +29 +17 +48=+145/+2264 6/283 (169)
+35 +6 +5 +29 +7 +15 +10=+107/+2371 7/179 (176)
+9 +12 +25 +15 +27 +20=+108/+2479 6/263 (182) <=== progression loss cost exceeded
+8 +35 +35 +23=+101/+2580 4/113 (186)
+16 +29 +14 +5 +31 +17 +48=+160/+2740 7/227 (193)
+23 +27 +25 +69=+144/+2884 4/220 (197) <=== progression loss now due

+8 +6 +6 +17 +60 +21 = +118/+3002 6/354 (203)
+35 +24 +3 +33 +21=+116/+3118 5/128 (208)
+25 +32 +22 +23=+102/+3220 4/86 (212) <=== all time high

+18 +33 +16 +31 +11 = +109/+3329 5/104 (217)
+23 +8 +23 +29 +21 = +104/+3433 5/106 (222)
+22 +4 +26 +2 +34 +28 = +116/+3549 6/325 (228) <=== 25%+ overdue

+9 +26 +25 +34 +24=+118/+3667 5/227 (233)
+27 +34 +60 = +121/+3788 3/143 (236)
+20 +17 +16 +14 +34=+101/+3889 5/250 (241)
+29 +24 +31 +21=+105/+3994 4/39 (245)
+13 +35 +35 +25=+108/+4102 4/93 (249) <=== 50% overdue

+1 +11 +26 +3 +9 +31 +34 = +114/+4216 7/276 (256)
+24 +19 -2455=-2412/+1804

Level 2 Recovery. 2 in 259 coups vs. 202 coups.  Target: +3162/51

+75 +81 +32 +18 = +206/+2010 (263) [4]
+54 +64 +2 +6 +6 +6 +87 = +225/+2235 (270) [11]
+66 +54 +58 +6 +42=+226/+2461 (275) [16]
+56 +38 +48 +46 +48=+236/+2697 (282) [21]
+2 +68 +52 +34 +68=+224/+2921 (287) [26]
+26 +26 +24 +8 +58 +50 +60 =+226/+3147 34/1223 (294) [33]




This is quite sufficient with a Progression Loss Event just about due.  A pattern is beginning to form where we have large drawdowns but they are less than our gains.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2017, 10:05:02 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

BioBrick

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Thanked: 15 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #76 on: April 22, 2017, 02:46:10 PM »
I have been playing the update method: 8x1, 8x2, 8x3 etc 92% progression. I first used to bet on one number. I went to level 4 and then I tried to generate random number after hit like that turbo progression method. It improved my results, but sometimes I get that sleeping number. I have been thinking that why not randomly choose number to bet on since the odds are the same. 

But I'm worried that I can guess wrong or randomly generate number that wont hit. But the odds are the same. And it could or would remove that sleeping number problem. Or what you think?

I have been thinking about thisl Since number sleeps thats the problem why progression looses. I will code simple program to study what will be rate of succesfull hits when generate random number for each bet and for like using same number for 10 times in a row and then change number. Odds are the same but it feels more riskier to play random against random. But 92 times random versus 92 times random each time. Still same mathematical odds but it feels in secure. Staying with same number for 92 spins feels more secure and I have seen good results with it.  Looses aprox  1 in 10. Like that 92% tells 92 of 100 wins and 8 lost. Been thinking a way to defeat that sleeping number changing it is the answer for it but how and for what number its the guestion here.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2017, 05:46:33 PM by BioBrick »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Reyth

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3181
  • Thanked: 911 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #77 on: April 22, 2017, 08:28:10 PM »
Hey Brick!  Welcome to the forum!

Ya on the changing numbers thing, I have experimented with it and we cannot avoid the Black Swan Event by doing that because it will just follow the numbers we choose (eventually).

This system is created around recovery ("scrapping") instead of bet selection.  The progression is minimized in cost and maximized in length and the payout is maxmized with a single number bet.

We expect and are prepared to deal with all losses.    I attempt to un-double the chips as soon as I can.  The Black Swan Event is where we get a second progression failure before we can recover from the first.  At that point I stop betting (but keep spinning) until we get a full recovery without a failure.

My theory is that it is a system's recovery method that allows us to win or causes us to lose.  I think the key is to set the recovery inclination upwards so that we get a strong amount back as fast as possible but without unduly risking our bankroll.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2017, 09:21:04 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

Rinad

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 132
  • Thanked: 197 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #78 on: April 23, 2017, 03:39:07 AM »


  there is a solution to avoiding a sleeper number. hard to believe but it is true. the only way to be convince is through doing it. by comparison with the oposite action is how you see if you see a mirage or a real thing.
I know many thinks it make no difference if you switch from one "non hitting street" to another, and that soon a later the black swan will show up.
if he shows up half of the time that he would normally show up, it will give me time to get the edge,recover,ect...
so for many years i would be betting the same number, or same street, play and play until things finaly turned around. by doing that I would awaken the sleeper much more often.
so I experiment by switching to a new street,a different one. yes there was a difference. not a huge one but a better one. that can make a bit of difference.
i mostly play a one number method within a street. I mentioned it in other post.
lately i improved my game dramatically by doing more then just moving to a other street.
I NOW SWITCH TO A MOST DOMINANT STREET COMBINE WITH THE MOST DOMINANT SINGLE NUMBER WITHIN THAT STREET AND MY RATE OF HITTING MY NUMBER HAS REALLY INCREASED.
think about it guys. i am only really following BIASES. THEY ARE REAL. what are my chances of getting a long sleeping street and number when i am constantly monitoring my dominant streets?
yes sometime it changes on me, again and again, but it still improves my game a lot.
it takes more work on my part because of the bookeeping involve but it is the cost I am prepare to paid. the work.
I just want to share this piece of information with you. i always test my data before i mentioned anything, so that I dont speak from hunches.
you guys are just like me. crazy about the game. good guys who are sharing all your knowledge. we are all in this together. so think about what I just mentioned.
you may never kill the swan, but keeping him away as long as possible, is'nt it worth it?

best,
Rinad
 
The following users thanked this post: BioBrick

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3181
  • Thanked: 911 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #79 on: April 23, 2017, 09:23:28 AM »
For what it may or may not be worth, I start a new session after every hit or progression loss. 

My personal experience with switching numbers or attempting to bet hot numbers is that there is ultimatlely no difference; each method will go through its correspondingly "high and low tides".

Ya I mean ultimately, roulette is a psychological game and we need to feel as comfortable as possible with what we are doing so we can make the best decisions when it counts the most. 

If we love roulette then we must love losing and succesfully digging ourselves out of a hole -- that takes a strong psychological makeup; a "love", if you will!

If we get dug into a hole and then stick our head into it, we shouldn't be surprised if our bankroll gets buried, to never return to the surface! :D




37 74 111 148 185 222 259 296 333 370 407 444 481 518 555 592 629 666 703 740 777
814 851 888 925 962 999 1036 1073 1110 1147 1184 1221 1258 1295 1332 1369 1406 1443 1480

[Psychology] https://youtu.be/v_sW92ewgkY

Level 1.

+2 +15 +27 +29 -1455 = -1382/+765

Level 2 Recovery. 3 in 299 (vs. 303) is now slightly over expectation! Target: +2361/51 coups

+70 +66 +12 +94 =+242/+1007 (303) [4]
+72 +20 +2 +38 +84=+216/+1223 (308) [9]
+18 +68 +70 +60=+216/+1439 (312) [13]
+10 +52 +42 +32 +68=+204/+1643 (317) [18]


We are now 92 spins ahead of expectation since the Progression Loss Event.  However, because we are only at 17 coups towards a second PLE, I feel confident that we are statistically safe and that this short term swing will end "within itself" without becoming a BSE.  So, I will continue betting normally (Level 2).

+70 +14 +30 +56 +18 +52=+240/+1883 (323) [24] <=== 141 spins above expectation
+66 +34 +32 +64 +66=+262/+2145 (328) [29] <=== 214 spins above expectation
+34 +66 +58 +24 +38=+220/+2365 (333) [34]<=== 295 spins above expectation

Our goal is achieved but because we are only 33% towards the next PLE being due, I am going to keep spinning at Level 2 until we reach 51 coup events.  Again with our medium expectation being so far out of whack, I am still not concerned because of the favorable PLE percentage; setting the incline upwards is a key to overall success.

« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 12:18:05 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

BioBrick

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Thanked: 15 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #80 on: April 23, 2017, 03:13:31 PM »
Thanks Reyth.

Today I started playing and generated a random number for the progression. I lost first. When doing recovery with  new generated numbers at 2nd level  I made a few wins and then lost again. Down 1500 units.  Then went to level 3 and made the recovery with same strategy always generating that number after hit.  Now I'm up 247 units.

Before this a coded the program that generates random number and then generates random number between 0 - 36 and compares those numbers. For 92 spins and 1000 times theres average 920 hits and 80 non hits. So there is no way around it. Losses will come and the recovery process is for that.  Still 92%. Then made program to output wins and loses as they come. Rare double losses and win streaks. Now I can see that this is a good system and the recovery works unless really bad luck.

After reading Rinand post I looked at the statistics of betvoayger mobile roulette and saw that 4 is the hottest number and I started to play it.  I took a screen shot of the stats and could not post the picture. I can easily believe if live roulette has bias with the wheel random number generator can have bias as well. Why not!

And mathematicly the odds are the same for every number so why not play the hottest.

Always been thinking that variance will even out since rng is purely random. But for my sessions with de alambert on single streets its easy to have that session when numbers wont come as expected that leads loss.

So now on playing it on the hottest number. 
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Rinad

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 132
  • Thanked: 197 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #81 on: April 23, 2017, 03:47:27 PM »


  I know that biases are real time. the only way to be sure that playing the hottest is beneficiary is not by playing a few sessions, but dozens of them at least.
because variance is our enemy, i am only trying to help the system player to get a extra edge. perhaps after a trillion spins it all evens out. but it nice to know that the sleeper needs to catch me instead of me catching it by staying on a losing streak, hoping it will turn around.
there is only a "up side" to playing favorites, and no down side at all, so why not doing it.
there is no "up side" in staying with a sleeper. you have to go through a sleeper to meet the black swan, no other way.
i will post sessions results to show the difference. i get a extra 2 session win per every 25 sessions played.
i have listen to your "psychology utube " video Reyth, and it is very good wisdom.
we should expect losses so that our "minds" are ready with meeting reality. I will make it a priority when I play live.
it is part of our game. losses are hard to take for most of us. and often instead of taking a break, we keep on playing waiting for things to turn around. not good.
it is easier to kill the monster when he is still small.
another thing i wanted to mention and I know you have notice that also is that the "not moving from a hot number" can get you so many wins at time that it is hard to believe that it is happening.
the fact is that extrems can be your friend too, when used the right way. that is why when it is burning hot, it makes no sens to cut it short, and riding the wave can make up for many losses.
best,
Rinad
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Reyth, BioBrick

BioBrick

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Thanked: 15 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #82 on: April 23, 2017, 05:19:01 PM »
« Last Edit: April 23, 2017, 08:25:02 PM by Reyth »
 

BioBrick

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Thanked: 15 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #83 on: April 23, 2017, 05:20:22 PM »
« Last Edit: April 23, 2017, 08:26:04 PM by Reyth »
 

BioBrick

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Thanked: 15 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #84 on: April 23, 2017, 05:23:35 PM »
The 2 pictures above: First I read the post about hot numbers. So 4 is the hottest I started playing on it. Second picture when my connection disconnected and had to quit. Still number 4 was the hottest. Interestin. I had progression 1 lost on it and then did recovery and afterward profit on 4. I know its short term but many spins and going to keep my eye on hot numbers definetly.
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Reyth

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3181
  • Thanked: 911 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #85 on: April 23, 2017, 08:30:11 PM »
I lost first. When doing recovery with  new generated numbers at 2nd level  I made a few wins and then lost again. Down 1500 units.  Then went to level 3 and made the recovery with same strategy always generating that number after hit.  Now I'm up 247 units.

I think you experienced a BSE with the second drawdown and I would have stopped betting until you had a successful recovery first.  Grats on getting back to profit!

Quote
Before this a coded the program that generates random number and then generates random number between 0 - 36 and compares those numbers. For 92 spins and 1000 times theres average 920 hits and 80 non hits. So there is no way around it. Losses will come and the recovery process is for that.  Still 92%. Then made program to output wins and loses as they come. Rare double losses and win streaks. Now I can see that this is a good system and the recovery works unless really bad luck.

Wow awesome work!  Yes and I think if we skip the BSE's we will improve even more!!

 

TERMINATOR

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 175
  • Thanked: 250 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #86 on: April 23, 2017, 10:51:06 PM »
Hi Reyth, I like your statement:
Quote
This system is created around recovery ("scrapping") instead of bet selection

I'm hoping to apply something like this to the Single Dozen method.

Anyway, I am watching your Bullseye Demo on You Tube, and you mentioned that the free roulette game you're playing has 500 spins per hour. Can you provide the link to that site? Or the name of the site?

Thanks!

BTW, when I tried running your Bullseye Mon program, it said the SDL_image.dll is missing. Any suggestions as to how I can get this DLL? Thanks.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2017, 11:02:56 PM by TERMINATOR »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3181
  • Thanked: 911 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #87 on: April 23, 2017, 11:52:58 PM »
Well, first of all, the 500 spins per hour is based on the user clicking that fast; I am able to generate it because I use a very simple system and I only need to hit "Rebet" and "Bet", raising relatively infrequently.

Anyway the site is: http://www.nepalonlinecasino.com

The missing .DLL problem is common.  The way around it is to download the free compiler at http://www.qb64.net/.  Put it in the same spot as the .bas and .exe file.  Run the compiler (qb64.exe).  File ==> Open and select the .bas file from the list.  Hit F5.

On the "scrapping technique" it is based on "knowing" when to raise/lower our bets and how far to push win/loss streaks.  The idea is to make as much money as possible in the shortest possible time with the least amount of risk.



Level 2 (cont.)

+16 +60 +46 +54 -4910 = -4734/-2369 <=== 42/1167; 387 spins over expectation

Level 3 Recovery.  Obviously I took a risk and got tagged.  This is not a BSE as our goal was properly reached but I decided to press onward. 4 in 338 is now 71 coup events GREATER than expectation.

Target: +1774/51 coups

+100 +8 +66 +102 +87 +12=+375/-1994 (344) [6] <=== 48/1543; 233 spins over expectation

A side note here.  I am truly wondering if this great inequity in hits:spins is enough to necessitate virtual betting until it corrects?  So far the PLE events are within their proper expectation, they have now taken a DOWNWARD tilt.  Watching this carefully...

+105 +63 +72 +12 +33 +63=+348/-1646 (350) [12] <=== 278 spins over expectation
+99 +87 +12 +90 +78=+366/-1280 (355) [17] <=== 339 spins over expectation
+51 +60 +93 +39 +60=+303/-977 (360) [22] <=== 412 spins over expectation

Ouch.  We are now at a new "high" for hits:spins being more than expectation.  Its hard for me to know what to do here.  I guess if we can pay nothing else, we can pay attention... >.<

+57 +54 +96 +84 +96 = +387/-590 (365) [27] <=== 546 spins over expectation

As terrible as this is, over 3X the progression length, I want to be in at least profit before lowering my chips.  Once this is achieved, I plan to lower back to 1 until the next PLE and then go back up to 3 units again, instead of 2.  I think the only thing right now that is holding back the flood is the PLE expectation and it is quickly running higher...

+3 +33 -7365 = -7329/-7919 71/2277 <=== 350 spins over expectation

The story here is very clear.  Massive medium-range expectation deviation signaled the upcoming early PLE, the change in PLE inclination and the impending BSE.

Rule #2: Do not bet large into medium-range expectation deviation that is greater (2X?) than the length of the progression.

BSE active, Level 4.  Target: -738/51 coups. 4 in 368 is 36 coups over expectation.

+55 +165 +120 +35 +112=+487/-7432 (373) [5]
+80 +120 +15 +76 +44 +68 +95=+498/-6934 (380) [12]
+36 +104 +85 +132 +136=+493/-6441 (385) [17] 87/2931
+64 +45 +56 +64 +120 (-7799) +96=+445/-5996 (390) [22]
<=== https://youtu.be/bEMRqK2IlXw
+112 +4 +44 +76 +24 +18 +112 +140=+530/-5466 (398) [30]
+32 +132 +48 +84 +64 +12 +68=+440/-5026 (405) [37]
+104 +95 (-7704) +48 +128 +145 (-7559)=+520/-4506 (410) [42]
+28 +104 +140 +116 +140=+528/-3978 (415) [47]
+132 +32 +145 (-7414) +116=+425/-3553 (419) [51]


The BSE is now officially over with 51 successful coups being established.  The total hit:spin stats are:

106:3712 = 210 spins GREATER than expectation

The PLE is due in 86 coups.  I will watch the HS ratio closely while proceeding confidently for a brief while at Level 4.  I plan to discontinue raising at 50% to the PLE.

Our debt stands at -7414.  Target: -738/51 coups.

+8 +178 +112 +36 +116=+450/-6964 (424) <=== 5/259;136 spins GREATER expectation
+120 +36 +70 +130 +92=+448/-6516 (429) <=== 5/186;135 spins GREATER than expectation
+120 +124 +116 +136=+496/-6020 (433) <=== 4/104;179 spins GREATER than expectation
+96 +52 +124 +100 +32=+404/-5616 (438) <=== 5/173;191 spins GREATER than expectation
+72 +155 +140 +32 +4=+403/-5213 (443) <=== 5/243;133 spins GREATER than expectation
+112 +40 +112 +60 +48 +36=+408/-4805 (449) <=== 5/210;108 spins GREATER than expectation

Unraising now to "soak up a loss" before returning to 4 units again.


Level 1.

+21 +19 +31 +35=+106/-4699 4/125 (453)
+31 +165=+196/-4503 2/96 (455) <=== Snap Back Inclination Raise
+32 +9 +5 -1455=-1409/-5912

Level 4 Recovery. 5 in 459 is 46 coups GREATER than expectation.  The PLE inclination is clearly still downward.  The HS ratio is currently at 35 spins LESS than expectation [mark3/255]; the HS ratio has now completely rectified and reversed.

+135 +85 +136 +124 +115=+595/-5317 (464) <=== 75 spins LESS than expectation
+116 +84 +60 +90 +96=+446/-4871 (469) <=== 97 spins LESS than expectation
+28 +60 +28 +28 +124 +88 +128=+484/-4387 (476) <=== 171 spins LESS than expectation
+108 +132 +72 +52 +104=+468/-3919 (481) <=== 80 spins LESS than expectation
+108 +44 +12 +48 +124 +64=+400/-3519 (487) <=== 23 spins LESS than expectation
+108 +88 +64 +40 +56 +108=+464/-3055 (493) <=== 4 spins LESS than expectation
+92 +92 +52 +76 +96=+408/-2647 (498) <=== 54 spins GREATER than expectation
+116 +104 +40 +130 +88=+478/-2169 (503) <=== 47 spins GREATER than expectation
+178 +145 +100=+423/-1746 (506) <=== 28 spins LESS than expectation
+56 +24 +76 +8 +85 +48 +36 +4 +108=+445/-1301 (515) <=== 4 spins LESS than expectation

We have almost reached our Level 4 goal of -736 units but instead of pressing on, I am very conservatively choosing to go back to Level 1 and "soak up a loss".

https://youtu.be/Hy0bmCLDosM
« Last Edit: Today at 06:49:13 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: TERMINATOR

BioBrick

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Thanked: 15 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #88 on: April 24, 2017, 11:28:36 AM »
I have played this by thinking the mathematics. Its very rare to have double loss 0.08 X 0.08 * 100 = 0.64%. Triple loss 0.08*0.08*0.08*100 = 0.051% May still happen but there  is still recovery levels left and that event to happen again in next recovery odds are very low(I cannot calculate it). To have that horror event of wipe out its very very rare. and If its 4 hits for recovery level up its 0.92^4*100 = 71,6% so favorite have that happen.  I have had that level 4 recovery happen.  Still novice playing this and when I have had that bankroll lost event I will realize whats the deal with BSE. Now I feel its part of the game to have double loss. It will happen.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 02:57:38 PM by BioBrick »
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

BioBrick

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 16
  • Thanked: 15 times
Re: Bullseye
« Reply #89 on: April 24, 2017, 03:10:21 PM »
Today I have been playing that 96% method. I think this method is too slow for recovery. I mean with this progression the BSE is more prone to happen. Since there is that danger of  BSE recovery should be fast as possible. I had progression loss then I tried to jump 2 levels for hit I got that hit and then grinding at 2 level and had again a loss. So then back to level 3 and and still trying to pull it up.

So maybe defeating that recovery loss is to use more units like 3rd or 4th level or use that 92% method that brings more profit on hit at 2 level. 495 units loss might be recovered with 3 hits. Or maybe the level 1.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 06:23:51 PM by BioBrick »
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth