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Author Topic: Scep' s roulette strategies .  (Read 72239 times)

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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #330 on: April 11, 2017, 01:09:45 PM »
  LAST 5 NUMBERS  BET

I have ridiculed Real’s Last Five Numbers   Bet  because
a ) He has presented a Method while he ridicules Methods , and
b ) because he attempts to justify it by saying the Bettor MIGHT be playing  a biased wheel.
    Depending on “MIGHT  “ is silliness pesonified.
This idea, anyway, is not new. Many have noticed that sometimes numbers do recur within a few spins .
This idea could even be justified by the use of “ The Law of the Thirds “. This “ law “ maintains that , in any series of 37 spins then at least  12 numbers will  not have appeared. This leaves 25 numbers which have appeared in the last 37 spins and “our” last 5 numbers are one-fifth of that so one of those has a 1 in 5 chance of occurring in the last 5 numbers  spun. So  the Bettor may have   an advantage  but is still subject to variance.
Who needs “ MIGHT “ ? or AP ?
 Just a thought !
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #331 on: April 13, 2017, 08:41:25 AM »
Real knows very less ., how to play systems and strategies. I advice him to study my theory about the short and long run features and  what means DTOP.
We  system players are donkeys and he repeats his opinion again and again.
He discusses as a creator
 
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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #332 on: April 21, 2017, 12:23:57 AM »

The claim that we must lose “in the Long Run” is absurd  unless a  timeline is given .
What is seldom realised is that Roulette has a  multinomial distribution so is extremely difficult to analyse properly .
Probability Theory deals with probabilities not the certainties some claim.
Gambling is about overcoming the unfair odds on offer . We don’t aim to be “Right “ but to profit .
We have the option to start and stop when we like so don’t need to meet any criteria set by our critics .WE decide - not them .
 
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Reyth

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #333 on: April 21, 2017, 12:53:44 AM »
Quote
In probability theory, the multinomial distribution is a generalization of the binomial distribution. For example, it models the probability of counts for rolling a k-sided dice n times. For n independent trials each of which leads to a success for exactly one of k categories, with each category having a given fixed success probability, the multinomial distribution gives the probability of any particular combination of numbers of successes for the various categories.

So do you mean categories of:

SU
Split
Street
Quad
DS
Dozen
EC

and furthermore, similarly sized groups from the wheel?

If so, its interesting that you would mention this in connection with "gambler's fallacy theory" arguments...
« Last Edit: April 21, 2017, 12:56:58 AM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #334 on: April 21, 2017, 01:26:02 AM »

Yes, Reyth
This could explain the 18 phenomenon.
 

Reyth

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #335 on: April 21, 2017, 01:32:55 AM »
I don't see an explanation for the 18's anywhere I look; I mean 16 Dozen IN A ROW!?  16 DS IN A ROW!? etc.

I cannot see the random flow as "competing statistical groups that act independently" but rather as different statistical perspectives that can help us to better understand what is happining (and maybe even likely to happen) in the random flow?
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #336 on: April 23, 2017, 11:31:38 AM »

                                                                  A 5 - 4  EDGE

Using the 9 column Block for Dozens or Columns we can have a 5/4 advantage over 2 consecutive spins.Simply bet the 2 indicated dozens or columns after the first 2 spins which are virtual bets.  You should be aware that we are still subjected to variance so there can be no guarantee of profit - only an expectation of profit.
111222333
123123123
231312123
231123312
If you look at , say, Line 1 .The first 2 spins the 2 numbers below are 2 followed by 2. If you look at all 9  of the last 2 spins you will find that 5 of them contain 2 which gives us an edge of 5/4. Even allowing for 1 zero in every average 37 spins we still have an edge. We are still subject to variance  however .
NOTE
 The first 2 are not bet ( hence “Virtual bets  ) but are only used to indicate what to bet on the next two spins.
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #337 on: April 25, 2017, 04:19:51 PM »

                                                           NEVER  BET  ZERO  !
WHY ?     
Because
1 ) It has no better chance than any other number.
2 ) To profit we must leave out some numbers . So why not zero ?
3 ) Unlike other numbers it cannot be used
In Dozens
In Columns
In Red / Black
In Odd  / Even
In High / Low
In a Street
In a Double Street
So why do Bettors bet Zero ?
The FEAR factor - because it MIGHT come up.
Don’t let it mess with your mind !
Concentrate on your method and FORGET the zero . It is only ONE number among another 36 .
 
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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #338 on: May 07, 2017, 01:58:32 PM »


                                    Betting Even - Chances.
                         
If you predict the next 3 results of an Even Chance then you have a 1 in 8 chance of all being correct .
And  a 1 jn 8 chance of  all being wrong  !
Taken together there is a 1 in 4 chance of one of those 2 results being correct.
But how to   bet them ?
One way would be to  wait until the result of the first spin  is
known and then bet  the next two to be the same RESULT - win or lose - as the first. Bet as a double /Parlay for a 3/1 shot.
You might consider one set  to win  1 in 5 series of bets.
Bet as
1st Set 1 unit - if win 3 units profit
2nd Ser 1 unit-if win 2 units profit
3rd Set 2 units-if win 4 units profit
4th Set 2 units-if win 2units profit.
5th Set 3 units -if win 3 units profit.
STOP AT A WIN or loss of all 5 for a loss of 9 units.

 
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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #339 on: May 26, 2017, 03:53:07 PM »

                                   Scep’s “ Three Pillars “.

1 ) Use the Nine Block to determine the next Dozen and Column to bet.
2) Use the previous two winning numbers to determine the next “spin” numbers.
e.g.
If the last two numbers were ,say,3 and3 then if you look at the line of the block which starts with 3 followed by  3. You will find that both the dozen and column after 3 and 3 is 3 in both cases..
1-1-1-2-2-2-3-3-3
1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3
2-3-1-1-1-2-1-2-3   
So the 3rd Dozen and the 3rd Column are Indicated. Where they coincide gives the numbers 27-30-33-36 .
3 ) From this choose to bet the group containing 27-30-33-36.
The others are 1-4-7-10 -14-17-20-23-.Bet these 12 numbers as 6 splits.
3 ) In this illustration I would bet 6 units on the 3rd Dozen , 6 units on the 3rd Column and 1 unit on each of the 6 splits.
Total bet 18 units .
Including zero there are 9 numbers not bet so there is a 3/1 chance that we will not lose - and various results which will give us our stake back - a profit  of 18 units - or a profit of 36 units.
I maintain that this is a bet with a reasonable  expectation of profit . Others may and  will disagree   !
« Last Edit: May 26, 2017, 07:07:21 PM by scepticus »
 
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scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #340 on: June 09, 2017, 02:25:05 PM »

There is much discussion about the need for Money Management . How long a losing run will last - and how much of a bankroll is needed to counter this  anticipated  losing run .
Some estimates in the forum anticipate bankrolls of 500 , 1000 and more. Unless you already have such amounts available to play the suggested method then you  must either find such an amount  - or curtail the number of bets or stakes.
Unfortunately, such curtailment is seldom suggested and if
curtailment is needed perhaps the suggested method needs further scrutiny.
Those of us who have been playing roulette for some time will know that “ inexplicably” there are times when the “impossible “ happens and an unanticipated losing run occurs, If we had been betting one of those “ sure things”   then we would
have lost a megabucks bankroll,  Would we try that sure thing again ? With a megabucks bankroll ? I  don’t think so ?
Knowing that  things do not always go to plan in any gambling environment isn’t the sensible thing to do is play a system that suits your bankroll and not one that is beyond your capacity to fund   it ?
Time, I think , for some forum members to rethink their  system - and their strategy .

 

ignatus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #341 on: June 09, 2017, 02:46:23 PM »
x
« Last Edit: June 09, 2017, 05:28:38 PM by ignatus »
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #342 on: June 09, 2017, 03:23:12 PM »

Ignatus
In practical terms there is no Long Run. There can only be the numbers of bets we will make and that differs  from Bettor to Bettor. 
Your observation that we need to find a Bet Selection that has a good hit rate is stating the obvious, It is also obvious that if you found such a bet selection you would not need to use a progression . The real question is how to find such a selection.
Despite what you claim your post does not constitute Money Management but thanks for your reply .
 

ignatus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #343 on: June 09, 2017, 03:56:48 PM »
x
« Last Edit: June 09, 2017, 05:28:55 PM by ignatus »
 

scepticus

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Re: Scep' s roulette strategies .
« Reply #344 on: June 09, 2017, 05:26:55 PM »
shrug.