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Author Topic: About airball roulette  (Read 16088 times)

GameNeverOver

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2015, 12:02:09 PM »
For all the players who still BELIEVE that there is no difference between playing roulette in B&M casinos, with live stuff, and playing on airball roulette machines:
https://www.google.com/patents/US4601470

The patent was created back then in February 1983. So, how many things have changed in the following 32 years?
 

kav

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2015, 01:06:29 PM »
For all the players who still BELIEVE that there is no difference between playing roulette in B&M casinos, with live stuff, and playing on airball roulette machines:
https://www.google.com/patents/US4601470
The patent was created back then in February 1983. So, how many things have changed in the following 32 years?
You can read all about it in our featured article (by Robert Groenen) about the trustworthiness of Airball and rapid roulette.
 

scepticus

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2015, 05:11:54 PM »
I often play Airball because it is quicker than live tables  and I do not see any difference .I win - and I lose .
I have noticed that the dropped ball bounces hither and thither  so just how can it be directed by  a magnetic force ?
Or the winning number preordained ?
 What I  have noticed , however , is that criticism  of any aspect of casino operations are from people who have lost .Why no criticism when they WIN  ?
Punters lose at Airball - it MUST be fixed.
AP lose at the table - it MUST  be fixed .
If you think you are being conned why do you play at that casino ?
Get over it guys, gambling is gambling and if you cannot accept the verdict of " Chance " you shouldn't gamble.
 

Reyth

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #33 on: June 17, 2015, 06:36:30 PM »
AP lose at the table - it MUST  be fixed
AP players lose??
 

kav

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #34 on: June 17, 2015, 06:50:14 PM »
Scepticus,

Not all venues and all roulette systems are the same.
I won't blindly trust any casino.
See also this experiment about the actual Casino house edge
I know this guy. He is a mathematician, who has done this experiment with over 7000 spins at his local casino. The house edge was way above 2,7% and his return on investment much less than 97,3%. He didn't play any progressions.
It is amazing what strange spin sequences he has seen against him.
Maybe I can convince him to write more.
 

scepticus

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #35 on: June 17, 2015, 09:14:27 PM »
kav
I have had a quick look at your link. Is this guy really a mathematician ? If he is he doesn't seem to know the difference between the House Edge and the casinos drop minus it's payout. In other words , it's profit.
He should have known that the mathematical expectation of the financial return from any bet is defined by the formula "Payoff for each result multiplied  by the mathematical probability of each result ". so for 1 number the payoff is 36 and the mathematical expectation is 1 in 37 .Divide 36 by 37 and you get 97.297 % and you get - surprise , surprise  a shortfall of 2.7 %.  And THAT is never-changing .   How can we verify his conclusion when we don't know his strategy - if any. Does he, for instance, bet the same numbers each time ? Without further information we simply cannot make a reasoned judgement.
How many times have you and I watched people bet  about 100 chips here ,there  and everywhere without any method and trusting to luck ? Do casinos get there large profits from Method Players ? Or ( whisper it ) from Advantage Players ? I don't think so, most of it comes from Mug Punters.
btw
Because of the higher standard deviation , fluctuation in the gambler's capital will be much greater than for bets made on even  -  money chances .
 

kav

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #36 on: June 17, 2015, 09:34:38 PM »
Scepticus,
I don't understand where you get that
"he doesn't seem to know the difference between the House Edge and the casinos drop minus it's payout. In other words , it's profit."
He records his returns and they are constantly much less than theoretically expected (97,3%). As simple as that.

What does the method has to do with the House Edge?
The house edge is the same no matter what you bet. It has to do with the payouts of the game (its rules) and is always constant.
You can read further about what the House edge is and how it is calculated here

[PS: dobbel, let's leave out the french roulette rules please for clarity]
« Last Edit: June 17, 2015, 09:37:33 PM by kav »
 

scepticus

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #37 on: June 17, 2015, 10:02:17 PM »
Well ,O.K. kav
He doesn't seem  to understand that variance rules and that could account for the deviation from the Expectation.
I would  have thought  he would have considered that  possibility rather than be surprised .  And , so far, he has only  a comparatively small  sample so early days yet .
Furthermore , you will be aware that I have been looking for a mathematician to test my Double - Dozen  strategy and tell me when it is likely to crash .Perhaps he is the answer to my " prayers " ?
 

kav

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #38 on: June 17, 2015, 10:43:22 PM »
I have seen his records and I can tell you this:
His returns in more than 7K spins were constantly way below expectation. He was flat betting in order to do his live tests. Instead of 2,7% his average losses in many casino visits were above 16%.  I wouldn't call this "variance".

This guy quit roulette after his tests.
 

scepticus

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #39 on: June 17, 2015, 11:42:13 PM »
You might not call it variance kav but others might .
Since we don't know the actual number of spins how can we tell if it was  enough  to justify a conclusion ? And, how many is sufficient ? I haven't found any mathematician bold enough - or stupid enough - to put his reputation on the line by stating one.
Many have had " weird " experiences . What  I am saying is that " inexplicable " things happen -Rare Events if you like -and we should just accept them and move on . There are some things  that cannot be fully explained and was why Probability Theory was invented. Because we cannot accept that " we don't know " the answer to the unexplainable.  Your friend did the right thing by giving up roulette if that experience spooked him.
What I DO know is that I  have found Airball  Roulette to be no more challenging  than  live tables .And that the ball jumps about when hitting the rotor .
Others who have used Airball Roulette may have found a difference as regards being " fair ". I only speak for myself.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #40 on: June 17, 2015, 11:48:18 PM »
You might not call it variance kav but others might .
Since we don't know the actual number of spins how can we tell if it was  enough  to justify a conclusion ? And, how many is sufficient ? I haven't found any mathematician bold enough - or stupid enough - to put his reputation on the line by stating one.
Many have had " weird " experiences . What  I am saying is that " inexplicable " things happen -Rare Events if you like -and we should just accept them and move on . There are some things  that cannot be fully explained and was why Probability Theory was invented. Because we cannot accept that " we don't know " the answer to the unexplainable.  Your friend did the right thing by giving up roulette if that experience spooked him.
What I DO know is that I  have found Airball  Roulette to be no more challenging  than  live tables .And that the ball jumps about when hitting the rotor .
Others who have used Airball Roulette may have found a difference as regards being " fair ". I only speak for myself.

That's a very reasonable explanation.
 

GameNeverOver

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #41 on: June 18, 2015, 03:18:35 AM »
 

kav

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #42 on: June 18, 2015, 06:54:28 AM »
You might not call it variance kav but others might .
Since we don't know the actual number of spins how can we tell if it was  enough  to justify a conclusion ? And, how many is sufficient ? I haven't found any mathematician bold enough - or stupid enough - to put his reputation on the line by stating one.
Hi Scepticus,

He recorder his returns in 7000+ spins. These spins were played in about 100 casino visits.

Mathematicians have defined how you can spot if the results may be random or not. This is the chi square test .  This is the test casinos use to determine if a wheel is "random" or biased and possibly exploitable.

There is also the Van Keelen test for testing the superiority of bet selections on specific wheels.

The "long run" can be practically defined for different bets, meaning that if after XXX amount of spins the results are deviating too much from expectation, something important is happening. For example If you win 3 Standard Deviations above expectation after those spins, this means that you probably have a winning system. If you lose 3 Standard Deviations above expectation after those spins, the game could be rigged. Here are the numbers for the "long run".  Note that these tests require to consistently flat bet. When using progressions it is extremely difficult to define "long run". Here are the numbers:

1 single number: 100.000 spins
Split bet: 200.000 spins
3 numbers: 130.000 spins
4 numbers 100.000 spins
6 numbers 60.000 spins
18 numbers 50.000 spins
 

Reyth

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #43 on: June 18, 2015, 07:06:01 AM »
Very interesting!  Analysis of the number of placed bets!  I have always focused on spins...
 

scepticus

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Re: About airball roulette
« Reply #44 on: June 18, 2015, 02:31:43 PM »
You might not call it variance kav but others might .
Since we don't know the actual number of spins how can we tell if it was  enough  to justify a conclusion ? And, how many is sufficient ? I haven't found any mathematician bold enough - or stupid enough - to put his reputation on the line by stating one.
Hi Scepticus,

He recorder his returns in 7000+ spins. These spins were played in about 100 casino visits.

Mathematicians have defined how you can spot if the results may be random or not. This is the chi square test .  This is the test casinos use to determine if a wheel is "random" or biased and possibly exploitable.

There is also the Van Keelen test for testing the superiority of bet selections on specific wheels.

The "long run" can be practically defined for different bets, meaning that if after XXX amount of spins the results are deviating too much from expectation, something important is happening. For example If you win 3 Standard Deviations above expectation after those spins, this means that you probably have a winning system. If you lose 3 Standard Deviations above expectation after those spins, the game could be rigged. Here are the numbers for the "long run".  Note that these tests require to consistently flat bet. When using progressions it is extremely difficult to define "long run". Here are the numbers:

1 single number: 100.000 spins
Split bet: 200.000 spins
3 numbers: 130.000 spins
4 numbers 100.000 spins
6 numbers 60.000 spins
18 numbers 50.000 spins

kav
I have been playing roulette for a long number of years and have yet to see where a mathematician has UNRESERVEDLEY  stated his  Long Run. The theory of the Long Run says only that the nearer you get TO INFINITY
a roulette player is likely to go burst.Since the human race is unlikely to reach  " Infinity " how much less so for an individual ? As Keynes put it many years ago " In the Long Run we are all dead "
Even your posts contains " expectations " and " could " . No "certainty "  .
As I have said before we humans are reluctant to think that  there is no definitive answer to anything . How many is sufficient ?  They don't know so invent the chi-square test. Sure ,it gives an answer . But not without  loading the question .What is put into the computer often determines the answer !
I have long suspected the value of strings of numbers, 100,000 - 1 million - who decides ? And what value is a chi-square test of  100,000 when that GREAT number is only ONE of gazillions of 100,000s -  a pee in the ocean ?
The chi square test is  a guess kav . A "best guess" perhaps but a guess nevertheless.
 btw  The numbers you gave .Do they represent the chance of it happening ? One number has the same chance as four ? Is that given for one a mistake ?