Author Topic: Merge Street  (Read 2058 times)

scepticus

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2017, 12:05:57 PM »
 Reyth
Re Merge Street. I still don’t see an advantage.
Over  an average 37 spins
1 – wins 12 chips
2 - wins 12 chips
3 – wins 12 chips
4 – wins 12 chips.
0 -  wins 24 chips
Total  Return -  72 chips
Total Bet 37x2=74 chips
Loss 2 chips

Any split , say 1-4
1-wins 2x18=36 chips
4-wins 2x18 =36 chips
Total Return – 72 chips
Total Bet -       74 chips
Loss  2 chips

So where have I gone wrong in thinking that  Merge Streets have no advantage over splits ?

 
 

Reyth

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2017, 04:21:06 PM »
Over  an average 37 spins
1 – wins 12 chips <=== 10 chips
2 - wins 12 chips <=== 2 wins 22 chips
3 – wins 12 chips <=== 10 chips
4 – wins 12 chips. <=== 4 is not included
0 -  wins 24 chips <=== 22 chips
Total  Return -  72 chips <=== total: 64
Total Bet 37x2=74 chips
Loss 2 chips <=== loss: 10 chips

Any split , say 1-4
1-wins 2x18=36 chips <=== 34
4-wins 2x18 =36 chips <=== 34
Total Return – 72 chips <=== 68
Total Bet -       74 chips
Loss  2 chips <=== loss: 6 chips

Thanks for this analysis. 

Of course a second unit on a split for a total of 2 units will be better than 2 units on a street with half the selection being doubled; the average hit amount is 16 vs. 17 & when the chips are doubled, the earning gap doubles.

Sometimes it just takes an outside perspective to properly see these things.

Because 2 chips is "excessive" and can be reduced in a 1:1 ratio to a single chip, in effect, you have pointed out that simply betting a split with 1 unit is more efficient.

Of course, this then brings us to the consideration of a straight up selection which will always be superior to a split.

« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 04:49:03 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2017, 05:09:58 PM »

Reyth

Perhaps I should have said " Returns" rather than " wins "
You need to  compare like with like . If you put 2 chips on your quad then you need to put two chips on the split.
A moment's  thought would have told you that if your analysis was correct then you have found the Holy Grail.
ALL bets relate to 36- quads -splits , straight-ups. None is " superior ". How we use them is what matters.
 

Reyth

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2017, 07:22:50 PM »
Good point, but why should I have to fight harder against expectation, on top of the house edge?

The only supposedly logical reason that I can come up with is "decreased variance" due to a larger selection;of course this is not true because the earning is also decreased.

We all know there is no "direct" HG, the HE makes sure of that.  My point was only that the merge payout amounts are more than 17 units.

Thank you for pointing out that regardless of the increased payout, I am losing earning efficiency due to, as you say, not matching like to like.
 

scepticus

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2017, 09:33:00 PM »

Fair enough Reyth , but ALL  bets  relate to their expectations.
I don't accept that it is  the HE that is the real problem but  random variance. Even with a No Zero table it wouldn't be easy to profit  which is why I think that our efforts should be centred on finding  a Bet Selection  that gives a reasonable chance of profit - and we all have our favourite approaches to that , don't we ?
So.yes, I agree with Mr, Perfect that progressions should not be our main focus but it should be what  to bet
- and when to bet it. Progressions  should not be an end in themselves but an aid to a good bet selection.
I do feel that if a bet fails when bet  as a Flat Bet then it is unlikely to succeed as a progression. A disadvantage is
multiplied when it's stake is multiplied and I am firmly in the camp of those who prefer to risk less .
Different strokes for different folks !

 
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juice

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2017, 02:33:34 AM »
Rinad, are you a lefty?
 

Rinad

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2017, 12:51:11 PM »


   Juice,

I am a righty, (lol).

I made a mess out of writing the progression. sorry. Kav, can you take it out ? looks a five year old wrote it.

Rinad
 

Reyth

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2017, 01:03:33 PM »
It looks great!  What modifications need to be made?
 

juice

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2017, 01:55:07 PM »
No Rinad, it just looks like your chart was written by a left handed person, the 6's and 4's, it is totally fine. Its just my own curiosity. Lol I think it was awesome that you posted it! I am thinking about trying your bet this weekend on the interblock machine in A.C., just to be able to play it at a lower scale to pass the time. You already did all the work for us to copy from.    Thanks....       Best , juice
 
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Rinad

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2017, 02:58:19 PM »


   the card I copy is my own, one that I use.

in the post I wrote under some of the spins, the dollar amount that you see is just the amount of the splits that you get when you hit.
one advice; when ever you hit your split, look how much money you need to be even and look at what bet you must make to be even. I do the count in my head. it is actually easier then it seem.
I RATHER UNDER BET THEN OVER BET.

1/     always go after a hot number when choosing your main number.
2/     always move after 38 spins if you dont hit your main number. (pick your split as a main number if it keeps on hitting)

3/   better to under bet then over bet when you have to decide after a split hit what your next bet is.

4/  always stay with your winning number when it hits. (after 4 /5 hits, you may pick another)
5/ a loss should never be more then 3 times your average winning session.

6/ you may stop playing anytime and pick the session back later where you left it.
7/ when deciding to stop, do it either after a loss /or after you hit your main number/ or reaching your win goal of a third of your session bankroll.

option; I played the method at a 2 to 1 ratio and it is just as good. win 400 $ or lose 800 $ (if your base cluster total is 10 $)
you will lose more often but recoup faster. just a preference if you dont like making big bets.
I played it that way over 500 sessions showing a profit.

dont let numbers get in your head. after I switch my old number can hit, even know it did not for 38 spins, when I played it. THIS IS THE ACTUAL WORK, THE HARD WORK, TO NOT LET IT BOTHER YOU.
AND IT ALWAYS IS NAGGING YOU, MAKING YOU FEEL LIKE YOU MADE THE WRONG DECISION. NOT TRUE. IT IS A SLOW METHOD AT THE REAL TABLE, SO THE PAIN OF WAITING IS AMPLIFIED 3 FOLDS.
air ball if you trust it, play it low stakes. you can play 2 clusters if you wish, but more bookeeping.

Good luck, God bless,real prayers happen often at the table. (lol)
Rinad
 
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Rinad

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #25 on: April 14, 2017, 03:03:46 PM »
 

Juice, good luck at atlantic city, wish i could go. but if you come in in Denver, they got nice casinos up in the rockies. we can hook up.
Rinad
 
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juice

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #26 on: April 14, 2017, 03:16:36 PM »
The reason this interests me is that airball usually throws hot number repeaters like crazy. I am just looking to have fun with this bet. It will be a nice diversion waiting for my normal play to kick in. Thanks for the guidance!
               Happy Easter!
 
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willtherock

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2017, 03:37:43 AM »

@Rinad: I adore this system. Thank you!

3 points of clarification;

1- do you bring your index card into the casino? Does anyone say anything to you?
2- on a split win during spins 1-21 do you start back at 1?
3- how often are you changing numbers?

Thanks so much!!!
« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 07:13:04 AM by Reyth »
 
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YoLo

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2017, 11:45:03 AM »
Hi reyth, its a good system, just run this system and encountered 70 times with not a single hit. Is it normal? So i changed it a little bit betting 0,1,2,3 and 1,2,3,4,5,6(ds), with a negative progression plus 1 if nothing hit, and minus -4 the counter every number 0 hit, -5 any number 1,2,3 hit and -2 any 4,5,6 hit. The target is 250, reach 1400 units  in just 30 minutes. Depeest was 30 bets on both, but rise up soon and reach the target of 250 and reset to 1 again. Need more testing.
 
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Rinad

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Re: Merge Street
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2017, 12:28:59 PM »

@Rinad: I adore this system. Thank you!

3 points of clarification;

1- do you bring your index card into the casino? Does anyone say anything to you?
2- on a split win during spins 1-21 do you start back at 1?
3- how often are you changing numbers?

Thanks so much!!!
Will, glad you like the system and yes I always bring the card with me. at the roulette table they let you do that with no problem at all.
when ever i hit a split within the first 1/21 spins i dont go back to spin one because a split only buys me about 5 extra spins.
example; I am on spin 15 and i hit a split, I go back 5 spins and start counting as if I am on spin 10. only if i get a hit with the first 5 spins do i start over when i hit a split. (or if i hit my main number).
the splits buy you spins until you hit your main number.
something you always want to do is keep track of where you are in your spin count.
i did left another part of that system out because i was not sure if anyone even would like it.
but I keep track of streets where each number hit.  going from left to right street 1,2,3,4......12.
if number 25 hit I write  a "9" (that is the coresponding street),  then 2 hit, write a "1", ect...
what is that do is giving you which "hot street" is dominant, and which number i am going to play.
always play the favorite, or very close to it. it will paid you big dividend.
you dont have have to change streets more often then every 6 spins if you suddenly find a more dominant one.
example; the last 6 streets (not numbers are) 2/6/8/6/12/5,  I will play street '6 , and pick the hot number within that street. if number 17 is the hot one I place 1 chip on 17 and 2 chips on split 17/18, and 16/17.
now if you want to pick number 18 within that street as your main number, you have to place 2 chips on 18 (main number), and 3 chips on street 6. that is the exact same pay out.
if you use the card you have to pick the meedle number.  it still is close enough.
not a perfect science but a profitable one. 
it is a little extra work to keep up with the hot streets but when i saw how much often i was hitting my clusters i had to play it that way.
you should win 5 out of 6 sessions on average. at a 5 $ unit, you stop after winning 200 or losing 600 $.
if you decide to go for more profit because the wins come easy, go for it. but be carefull if you do, you dont want to give back all the profit.
i won 23 out of 24 sessions last week. normally you lose 20% and win 80% of them. I have a card for the 8$,10$ minimum bet as well.
just remember when you are in recovery and you hit a split, you go back approx.5 spins. a easy way to remember where you are at. hope that helps Will. let me know how you are doing.
God bless
Rinad
 
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