Poll

Does it really make a positive statistical difference when we start a new session? (UP TO 4 VOTES ALLOWED)

Maybe because the statistical environment has changed.
Maybe, sometimes the current situation (certain other factors) can be improved.
No, the odds are always the same on every spin regardless of whether it is a new session.
No, the odds will always be worse when starting over.
Maybe, even though the ODDS will be worse, other factors can be more important.

Author Topic: Does it really make a statistical difference when we start a new session?  (Read 167 times)

Reyth

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"Oh so here we go again with another boring thread!?  SO, what are these mysterious 'other factors' anyway??"

Well, I am glad you asked!

1) Profit Freezing -- Preserving the profit/overall balance gains against the more probable counter-swing that may take place in the current statistical environment.

Ok, so there may only be one other factor but hey, cut me a break will ya!?

Oh and you may change your votes at any time. ;)

Seriously though, I am trying to think of everything here, all possible factors that could apply to our advantage...

If we have a simple bet selection that contains one element (1 Dozen, 1 EC) then the statistical picture is much simpler after a hit.

If our bet selection is complex (i.e. containing multiple elements) then the statistical picture is more rich and varied.

I think its possible to have a complex bet selection where the odds of obtaining a hit will always be worse when we start a session over.  In that case, we are "trading-in" profit freezing (protection against counter swings) for a "grab bag" of an uncertain future statistical environment that could be better or worse than the one we had when we restarted.


There seems to be this "vague & difficult to see" complex ratio between:

1) The profit gained/debt reduction
2) The chances of encountering a counter-swing and its implication on future sessions
3) The improved chances of simply gaining profit in a new session with a new target amount that is reduced by the profit gained/debt reduction


Regarding this difficult to quantify 3-dimensional ratio, I am using a "set" profit goal which is one-half the loss amount of the base progression to automatically end the session, regardless of the statistics.  I employ this while each session will bring me to a new all0-time high; i.e. no existing debt to pay off.

When I am facing debt, I make the profit goal AT LEAST 1/2 the size so as to be statistically easier to achieve.

I think the principle I am attempting to use here is:

"Profit in the hand, is worth even more than additional profit expected in the future"

I simply do not know exactly how this interrelates statistically with the complex ratio but it seems to be working for me?



A powerful question is:

"Why actually start a new session?  Why not use the same session in some way?  Can't we get better odds from the same session rather than risk hitting a worse statistical environment in a new session?  Why not just reduce the bet amounts and set a new target goal in the same session?

Ok, that's more than a single question... >.<

Name all the things that change when a session is re-started

1) The profit that has been gained (or amount of debt reduced) in that session is now placed in a category called "new high balance" or "latest debt reduction balance"

2) All of the "forces governing randomness" that contribute to a counter swing no longer apply in exactly the same way

3) My bet selection is reset to its default starting point

4) The past spins disappear*
4A) A fresh set of statistics is applied

... must take a break continuing this list, trust me... :/

*This only applies to online play but begs a new question: What if a B & M roulette wheel is closed down and the electric board unplugged?



What is the difference between an actual statistical environment and a potential statistical environment?

Is it possible that there is a greater chance for a potential statistical environment to be better than a current statistical environment? AND/OR Is it possible that there is a greater chance for a current statistical environment to be better than a potential statistical environment?

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT>POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT = stay in session
POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT>CURRENT ENVIRONMENT = begin new session

Reduce a current statistical environment to its "lowest common denominator" and then compare with the statistics of a potential statistical environment.



Playing roulette is like reading a story book.  We follow the logical thought of the story and we make logically based assumptions about how the plot will turn out on the next pages; isn't it OBVIOUS sometimes where the plot is going?  And aren't some of the best stories, the ones where things go amazingly differently than expected?
« Last Edit: April 05, 2017, 07:15:43 PM by Reyth »


 
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Reyth

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The Reverse Engineering Curse is constantly chasing us (or are we constantly chasing it!?).  Eventually, favorable odds become bad and even the worst losing streaks.

The following delimiters are designed to avoid this phenomenon:

A) Easily attainable session profit goal

Minimizing our exposure to the Reverse Engineering Curse.  This is like grabbing into a bag of 10 colored marbles and 1 of them is black.  We only grab into the bag 3 times and then stop.  Chances are we won't pick up the black marble. :)

B) Ending "bad leaning" sessions prior to hitting the full session goal

Anticipating the onset of the Reverse Engineering Curse.  "Bad leaning" sessions are coming in more frequently than expectation; this is worse than a new session!

C) Accepting smaller losses during actual bad sessions

Avoiding the worst successive drawdowns from the Reverse Engineering Curse and statistically expected counter-swings.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2017, 07:24:42 PM by Reyth »
 

Rinad

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     the statistics are what they are and can be used. the "when question" do we start a new session is actually "the secret" to winning, no matter what system you play.

example'' 2% of the time if you flat bet a even bet you will win 20 units.
if you seat down, as a example, play a game and you are up 20 units playing. statisticly speaking, you are going to lose some units if you keep on playing because of HE.
players have always know this instinctively, even novice players, because of experience.

so when to start a session is as valuable as to when to stop a session. statistics are very important.
if I know that I hit a severe drawdown of 30 units within 60 spins of betting on red, I would be ready for "a bounce back factor".  so I would be timing my next session and anticipate a "winning " one next time i play this very same type of betting.
we are using "variances" as a powerfull tool. nothing else. I always have a losing session before I play for real money. so the "when we start" to me is everything. 

the odds, numbers dont matter where they are. they dont care if you are in your pjs at home playing on your laptop or at the MGM in las vegas. you can play one spin per table, take notes, move to another table, odds are still the same. they are there where YOU ARE.

my 50 cents,
not a boring thread to me. maybe the most important one I ever read.
God bless
Rinad

 
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Reyth

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Right!  I think you are referencing personal permanence.  During the whole mental roulette introspection that I have been doing, I have been tempted to adopt a 100% personal permanence approach but in the end, I emerged with a stronger leaning towards what I have called "wheel permanence" and how a RNG fresh session is simply "expectation".

So if I have existing numbers to go on (a live wheel of some sort), I must use them for the "wheel permanence"; if I don't then I must treat it as a RNG fresh start.

If I was moving from live wheel to live wheel, I would want to make sure I started my next session in better "wheel permanence" based statistical shape than expectation; or at least equal to expectation.
 

dobbelsteen

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First you must define a session.
A visit to a casino can be a session.
A system can be start at any moment and also be ended. For systems you can use the betting possibilities.The table or the wheel. Every played system is a session.
A strategic player uses statistic triggers with a betting selection .After the  hit a new session start after a new trigger etc.
I play many sessions when I visit my B&M casino

 
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