Author Topic: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?  (Read 595 times)

Bayes

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2017, 04:37:58 PM »
In what way is it predictable? Still any outcome is possible. There is no spin in which you can say "Wait! I know what number will come next."

Any outcome is possible on the next spin, but over a sequence of spins there are limits. It wouldn't take much to detect the bias if one pocket was twice the size of the others, and that's the proof that outcomes are predictable. If all the pockets were the same size, there would be no way to tell which was more likely over a sequence of spins.
 
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kav

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2017, 04:42:52 PM »
What limits are there over a sequence of spins? Tell me. Show me a spin sequence out of limits.
(If you can do it for a wheel with a double-size-number, then I'll show you how it can be done for a fair wheel too.)
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 04:51:35 PM by kav »
 
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Bayes

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2017, 04:49:59 PM »
Kav, isn't it obvious that there are limits if you're considering different probabilities? An even chance won't go missing for 100 spins, whereas a single number will. Similarly if one pocket is twice the size of the others, that number can be identified as having a higher probability because it reaches its limits more quickly than the other numbers. It's similar to the difference in distributions between a single and split.

I must admit I'm surprised that you seem so closed-minded about AP.
 

kav

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2017, 04:51:16 PM »
This is very near to GF. You can't believe in "due events" and not believe in them at the same time. You want to have it both ways. Why a number with double size is due, but a normal number is not? Either both have a "due" point (different for each one) or neither. If every spin is independent there is no "due point". Past spins don't affect future results, remember?

PS: I'm not talking about AP - don't care. I'm talking mainly about prediction.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 04:54:13 PM by kav »
 

Bayes

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2017, 05:08:24 PM »
This is very near to GF. You can't believe in "due events" and not believe in them at the same time. You want to have it both ways.

But it's ok to talk about events being "due" if they have different probabilities. Obviously, a red is "due" before a single number, on average. I'm not committing GF in that case; it has nothing to do with past spins influencing future spins, but just the likelihood of one event compared to another.  GF comes in when you say that one event has different probabilities under different circumstances, which if the assumption of independence holds, cannot be true.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 05:15:31 PM by Bayes »
 

kav

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2017, 05:30:21 PM »
To recap, my position is this:

You talk about probabilities and averages.  Probabilities just describe the problem, the conditions of the wheel. Probabilities is another way to say "Well, I don't know for sure"
(because a single number can come before Red in your example)

I'm talking about the real outcomes. I'm talking about the prediction of outcomes, of any outcome at any time, with absolute certainty.

So, in my book, no matter the underlying probabilities, a game where you cannot make a single 100% certain prediction, in which every spin outcome is unpredictable, is a random game.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 05:42:56 PM by kav »
 
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petespin

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2017, 08:11:37 PM »
imo, these days  ALL wheels are very well controled to the point i d say that all roulettes are electronics! , well ap methods couldnt never work under these conditions , but systems do work only if u bet at the table when other guys play as well ... i ve seen the ball to turn back so many times , isnt strange?
 
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Real

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2017, 05:37:21 AM »
Let's get some facts straight.

1. AP means advantage play/player.
2. Everyone wants to win and in order to win in the long run you must have the edge. 
3. If you find a way to get the edge and win, regardless of the game or strategy you are by definition an AP.
4.  It is foolish and an oxymoron to state that you have a winning system/strategy but that your system is not an AP method.
 
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Bayes

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2017, 08:37:11 AM »
So, in my book, no matter the underlying probabilities, a game where you cannot make a single 100% certain prediction, in which every spin outcome is unpredictable, is a random game.

Well by that definition, roulette isn't random, because some outcomes are 100% predictable.  :)

In any case, I maintain that roulette isn't random unless all numbers are equally likely to hit.
 
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 01:24:24 PM by Bayes »
 

Bayes

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2017, 09:20:18 AM »
2. Everyone wants to win and in order to win in the long run you must have the edge. 

Natch, but you and other AP's insist that system players can never get an edge, so my post was about which principles make the difference, from that POV.
 

petespin

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #25 on: March 20, 2017, 10:07:58 AM »
well if u say so ,then iam an ap player but i have an advantage over casinos using my math method ,and not claculating where the ball will drop , iam accepting that perhaps the roulette outcomes vary from casino to casino ,but those... new tech wheels seems that u have no chance to beat em that way, thats my impression ,right or wrong? , i cant say for sure , but i dont thinkthat they [casinos] let the things roll without to have the upper hand !
 
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MrPerfect.

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #26 on: March 20, 2017, 10:12:51 AM »
 System player can sometimes get the edge. If he for some reason choose same group of numbers to bet as AP would, he will have edge .
   It's just it's very unlikely to happen. Problem is that this group of numbers that has edge may move depending on conditions... so even if system player choose wisely now, choice can become wrong in the future. Without study of wheel it's very difficult to update choice of target.
  Potentially can be anything, practically ...  it's all other story.
   There are many AP methods, on some , prediction in this very spin is not required. You still have aim, just do not have " prediction " for this very spin, instead you " predicting" that you will have a hit in " x" amount of spins in given conditions, for example.
   It may become very similar for what system players a tempt to do, just aim choice is dictated by study and not personal believe. 
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 10:17:22 AM by MrPerfect. »
 

petespin

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #27 on: March 20, 2017, 10:28:30 AM »
of course it desnt matter if u re a system player ,u have to know the exact layout of the wheel, otherwise u cant call yourself a pro guy , we agree at this point , but some events will happen no matter what , the question is WHEN? in roulette we have to be pattient and if u have a good betselection u can easily turn the odds in your favor, every single day !
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #28 on: March 20, 2017, 10:34:44 AM »
It is very easy to program the neighbor and sector bets. The features of a 3 number  neighbor bet are exactly the same as the features of the single street. Sectors and neighbors can also be played with the the same  systems of the table layout. System players can also bet on the wheel layout.
 
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petespin

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Re: Systems vs AP - where do you draw the line?
« Reply #29 on: March 20, 2017, 10:44:06 AM »
to bet on table lay out it doesnt means that u dont  take under consideration the wheel layout , and u need much less money than betting on the wheel .
 
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