Author Topic: Nine Waves  (Read 3369 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

jekhb76

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 280
  • Thanked: 333 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2017, 02:32:00 PM »
Thanks Reyth,

Yeah maybe a video of a session including recovery will help allot

thanks

Eddy
 
The following users thanked this post: Jake007, Reyth

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2017, 03:22:33 PM »
https://youtu.be/Jzo_yeBuKYA <=== Normal recovery session

Emergency Bailout Procedure

In rare cases, sessions will go to their very deepest in debt (800+ units) and at that time it is very dangerous to try and recoup the entire debt and even to reduce it to under 100 units.

The procedure involves lowering the chips by 1 after every coup until the final coup of the recovery at 2 units where the session is then ended.

Exceptions to the auto-lowering are made for late hits and Wing Events.

Granted this leaves a large debt of 200-400 units but it is far better to have that than to risk the statistically significant chance of a counter-trend where the entire bank is lost.



MINI-BAILOUTS can be performed where the overall debt can have been less than 800 and the resulting debt is 100-200 units.  This is done in the same spirit as an Emergency Bailout (to avoid counter trending).
« Last Edit: March 27, 2017, 01:45:14 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: Jake007, jekhb76

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #17 on: March 25, 2017, 06:40:30 PM »


+39 WIN
+48 WIN
+42 WIN
+45 WIN
+39 WIN
-51 LOSS <=== drawdown -150

Double start unit, profit goal 26+ units.

+30 WIN
+45 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 22 units.

+24 WIN

Normal play.

+39 WIN
+51 WIN
+45 WIN
+39 WIN
+51 WIN
-90 LOSS <=== drawdown -250

Double start unit, profit goal 45+ units.

+66 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 25 units.

+36 WIN

Normal play.

+45 WIN
+45 WIN
+42 WIN
+42 WIN
+12 WIN <=== multiple drawdowns, -200
+48 WIN
+48 WIN (+5577)
+39 WIN
+48 WIN
+39 WIN
+45 WIN
+39 WIN (+5787)
-612 LOSS <=== 1 bet from lost bank; scrap back to 350 units prior to >800.

The profit balance is now +5175.  Taking break.  Deal with this fortunate event upon my return.



612 units into 6 pieces is 102 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 51+ units.

+39 WIN <=== massive multiple drawdown 700+
+60 WIN

Debt is now 513 units into 5 pieces is 103 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 52+ units.

+60 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 44+ units.

+48 WIN (+5832)

Debt is now 405 units into 4 pieces is 102 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 51+ units.

-165 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT; double drawdown -550

Dividing this debt into 2 sections of 83 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 42+ units.

+48 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 36+ units.

+36 WIN

Debt is now 81 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 41+ units.

+42 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 40+ units.

+54 WIN (+5397)

Continuing with debt of 390 units into 4 pieces of 98 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 49+ units.

+60 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 38+ units.

+60 WIN

Debt is 270, 3 pieces of 90 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 45+ units.

+60 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 30+ units.

+30 WIN (+5607)

Debt is 180.  Writing this off with only about 4-5 coups to gain overall profit with 1 start unit.

+45 WIN (+5652)
-171 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT; multiple drawdowns -450



Divided into 2 sections of 86 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 43+ units.

+48 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 38+ units.

+54 WIN

Debt is now 69 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 35+ units.

+45 WIN

Double start, profit goal 25 units.

+24 WIN (+5652)

Normal play.

+0 WIN <=== drawdown -87
+39 WIN
+39 WIN
+51 WIN
+42 WIN
+47 WIN (+5870)

NEW HIGH!



+39 WIN
+51 WIN
+42 WIN (+6002)

THIS SYSTEM IS TEH BAWM!!!
FIVE TIMES DOUBLING THE BANK!!!!!
+39 WIN
+51 WIN
+45 WIN
+45 WIN
+48 WIN
+36 WIN <=== multiple drawdowns
+39 WIN
+42 WIN
+39 WIN
+42 WIN
+42 WIN
+0 WIN <=== multiple drawdowns -150
+39 WIN
+39 WIN
+39 WIN
+45 WIN
-102 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT; multiple drawdowns -350

Dividing debt into 2 sections of 51 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 51+ units.

+72 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 30+ units.

+30 WIN

Normal play.

+39 WIN (+6671)
-78 LOSS <=== Multiple drawdowns -250

Split into 2 sections of 39 units.

Double start unit, profit goal of 39+ units.

+42 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 37 units.

+48 WIN

Normal play.

+48 WIN
+42 WIN
+45 WIN
+39 WIN
+42 WIN
-99 WIN

Dividing debt into two sections of 55 units.

Double start unit with profit goal of 55+ units.

+60 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 40 units.

+48 WIN

Normal play.

-57 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT; -300

Double start unit, profit goal 58 units.

+63 WIN

Normal play.

-78 LOSS <=== multiple drawdowns -350

Double start unit, profit goal 39+ units.

+39 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 40 units.

+54 WIN (+6929)

Normal play.

+39 WIN
+45 WIN
+51 WIN (+7064)
+39 WIN
-87 LOSS <=== multiple drawdowns -350

Double start unit, profit goal 44+ units.

+15 WIN <=== one full drawdown
+30 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 43 units.

-63 LOSS <=== one full drawdown

The debt is now 105 units, 2 sections of 53 units.

Double start, profit goal 53+ units.

+54 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 52 units.

+57 WIN (+7109)

Normal play.

+24 WIN <=== multiple late hits
-54 LOSS <=== double drawdown -250

Double start unit, profit goal 55 units.

+60 WIN (+7139)
-81 LOSS <=== full drawdown -200

Double start unit, profit goal 41+ units.

+45 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 37 units.

+60 WIN (+7163)

Normal play.

+42 WIN (+7205)



6X BANK!!!
« Last Edit: March 30, 2017, 02:20:17 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: Jake007, ShadowBlue

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2017, 02:43:27 AM »


+39 WIN
+18 WIN <=== short break required
+39 WIN
+42 WIN
+45 WIN
+42 WIN
+39 WIN
+39 WIN
+47 WIN
+39 WIN
+45 WIN
+48 WIN
+39 WIN
+27 WIN <=== double drawdown
+45 WIN
+45 WIN
+39 WIN (+7882)
+42 WIN
+39 WIN
+51 WIN (+8014)
+39 WIN
+15 WIN <=== full drawdown
+9 WIN <=== full drawdown
+39 WIN
+42 WIN (+8158)
-171 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT



2 sections of 86 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 43+ units.

+54 WIN

Double start unit profit goal 32+ units.

-195 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT, -450

Total debt is now 312 units (+7846), into 3 sections of 104 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 52+ units.

+57 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 47+ units.

+54 WIN

Debt is now 201 units, into 2 sections of 101 units.

Double start unit, profit goal is 51+ units.

+75 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 27+ units.

+39 WIN

Debt is now 87 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 44+ units.

+62 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 26 units.

+36 WIN (+8169)

Normal play.

+54 WIN
+15 WIN <=== double drawdown
+39 WIN
+39 WIN
+45 WIN
-72 LOSS <=== multiple drawdowns -150

Double start unit, profit goal 36+ units.

+48 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 25 units.

+48 WIN (+8385)

Normal play.

+39 WIN (+8424)






+39 WIN
+42 WIN
+39 WIN
+42 WIN
+42 WIN
+45 WIN
+42 WIN (+8715)
-276 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT -550 (+8439)

Dividing debt into 3 sections of 92 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 46+ units.

+48 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 44+ units.

+18 WIN <=== successive late hits
+42 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 28+ units.

+54 WIN (+8601)

Debt is now 114 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 57+ units.

-427 LOSS <=== Emergency Bailout; -950 (+8174)

The debt is now 541 units.



Dividing into 5 pieces of 109 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 55+ units.

+81 WIN <=== Wing Events + Aggressive Incline on last bet

Double start unit, profit goal 29+ units.

+42 WIN

Debt is now 418 units, into 4 sections of 105 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 53+ units.

+62 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 44+ units.

+54 WIN

Debt is now 302 units, into 3 sections of 101 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 51+ units.

+27 WIN <=== multiple drawdowns; -500
+24 WIN <=== 1 drawdown

Double start unit, profit goal 51+ units.

+39 WIN <=== late hit
+72 WIN <=== Strong successive 9 Probabala hits (+8461)

The debt is now 140 units.  With only 3-4 coups required at a single unit, I am writing this debt off.

Normal play.

+42 WIN
+42 WIN
+6 WIN <=== multiple drawdowns
+39 WIN
+42 WIN (+8632)
-444 LOSS <=== Emergency Bailout; -1050 (+8188)

Dividing into 4 sections of 111 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 56+ units.

+66 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 46+ units.

+63 WIN

Debt is now 315 units, divided into 3 sections of 105 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 53+ units.

+63 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 43+ units.

+48 WIN

Debt is now 204 units, divided into 2 sections of 102 units.

Double start unit, profit goal 51+ units.

+70 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 32+ units.

+36 WIN (+8534)

Debt is now 98 units.  Writing this off.

Normal play.

+18 WIN <===on video double drawdown; -150
+48 WIN
+42 WIN
-87 LOSS <=== double downswing; -250

Double start, profit goal 44+ units.

+48 WIN

Double start, profit goal 40 units.

+42 WIN

Normal play.

+39 WIN (+8684)
+42 WIN (+8726)  <=== All time high!



+30 WIN <=== multiple drawdowns
+30 WIN <=== on video double drawdown
-189 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT; multiple drawdowns -400 (+8597)

Dividing into 2 sections of 95 units.

Double start, profit goal 48+ units.

+62 WIN

Double start, profit goal 34+units.

+51 WIN

Debt is now 76 units.

Double start, profit goal 38+ units.

+9 WIN <=== full drawdown -150
+18 WIN <=== late hit (+8737)
-84 LOSS <=== multiple drawdowns;-550 (+8653)

Debt is now 133 units, 2 sections of 67 units.

Double start, profit goal 34+units.

+42 WIN

Double start, profit goal 26+ units.

-324 LOSS <=== EMERGENCY BAILOUT; multiple drawdowns -600 (+8371)

Debt is now 415 units, into 4 sections of 104 units.

Double start, profit goal 52+ units.

+75 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala, aggressive last bet.

Double start, profit goal 29+ units.

+42 WIN

Debt is now 298 units, into 3 sections of 100 units.

Double start, profit goal +50 units.

+68 WIN

Double start, profit goal 32+ units.

+48 WIN

Debt is now 182 units, into 2 sections of 91 units.

Double start, profit goal 46+ units.

-210 <=== MINI-BAILOUT; multiple drawdowns -450 (+8394)

Debt is now 392 units, into 4 sections of 98 units.

Double start, profit goal 49+ units.

+69 WIN <=== Strong 9 Probabala; aggressive last bet

Double start, profit goal 29+ units.

+30 WIN

Debt is now 293 units, into 3 sections of 98 units.

Double start, profit goal 49+ units.

+66 WIN (+8559)

Double start, profit goal 32+ units.

-21 LOSS <=== full drawdown -150 (+8538)

Debt is now 248 units into 3 sections of 83 units.

Double start, profit goal 42+ units.

+6 WIN <=== Multiple drawdowns; -500
+63 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala, aggressive last 2 bets

Debt is now 179 units, into 2 sections of 90 units.

Double start units, profit goal 45+ units.

+12 WIN <=== double late hits (+8619)
-60 LOSS <=== full drawdown -150 (+8559)

Debt is now 227 units, into 3 sections of 76 units.

Double start, profit goal 38+ units.

+54 WIN <=== Strong Probabala, aggressive betting (+8613)

Double start, profit goal 22+units.

-51 LOSS <=== full drawdown -150 (+8562)

Double start, profit goal 35+ units.

+45 WIN

Double start, profit goal 25+ units.

+27 WIN

Debt is now 152 units, into 2 sections of 76 units.

Double start, profit goal is 38+ units.

+39 WIN

Double start, profit goal 37+ units.

+48 WIN

Debt is now 65 units.

Double start, profit goal 33+ units.

+42 WIN

Double start, profit goal 24 units.

+24 WIN (+8787) <=== NEW HIGH!



+39 WIN
+42 WIN
-27 LOSS <=== double drawdown -150

Double start, profit goal 28+ units.

+36 WIN (+8877)

Normal play.

+42 WIN
+48 WIN (+8967)
+54 WIN
+42 WIN
+33 WIN <=== multiple late hits
+39 WIN
+27 WIN <=== drawdown
+6 WIN <=== double late hit
+6 WIN <=== full drawdown
-57 LOSS <=== full drawdown

Double start, profit goal 29+ units.

+36 WIN

Double start, profit goal 22 units.

+30 WIN (+9183)

Normal play.

+6 WIN <=== full drawdown
+39 WIN
+42 WIN
-102 LOSS <=== double drawdown & late hits

Double start unit, profit goal 51+ units.

+54 WIN

Double start, profit goal 49 units.

+72 WIN <=== missed goal by 1 unit, had to re-bet (+9294)

Normal play.

+24 WIN <=== full drawdown
+54 WIN <=== strong Probabala, aggressive last 2 bets
+42 WIN
+45 WIN
+6 WIN <=== late hit
+42 WIN (+9507)
+57 WIN <=== strong Wing Event, aggressive final bet
+57 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala, aggressive final bet
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 09:14:12 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Jake007, Ainz, ShadowBlue

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2017, 06:58:01 PM »
https://youtu.be/imDlxGkQiMY <=== Double downswing; -150 units RECOVERY
https://youtu.be/dWTI7gH33jg <=== Double downswing & RECOVERY; Aggressive Edition
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 12:58:33 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: Jake007, Ainz

Jake007

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 388
  • Thanked: 274 times
  • "Topcats often start out as underdogs."
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2017, 03:13:38 PM »
91.86% will successively fully lose 5-6 times as a once in a lifetime event (1 out of 8M & 1 out of 4M).  4 full successive losses occurs only 1 in 290,909 times for a loss of 1200 units.

Reyth... Love what you are doing man! AWESOME work! I have a question... how did you determine the statistical data above? Im running my own version of the 4 corners by jekhb76 and have not lost 3 levels of 14 step progressions yet. Ive done quite well with it. Have probably done close to 500 spins after trigger with no losses. I know 4 levels would be a once in a lifetime event.
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth, ShadowBlue

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2017, 05:41:44 PM »
I ran 9 numbers for 16M coups & calculated the base percentage chance of the main progression failing one time from that data (16M divided by total hits all the way up to the 9th spin).  I then "bootstrapped" that base percentage to determine the total number of successive failures and the number of appearances of each level of failure.

I used two pieces of software to do this:

1) Rstation
2) Rdist

If you are betting 16 numbers then you would get your base percentage from that, which is:



99.964 chance of the full 14 step progression hitting, which can only be expected to successively lose:



Once: 0.000359125 <=== 1 in 2778, rare but you will see this
Twice: 0.000000125 <=== 1 in 8M, not expected to be seen in your roulette life

If you can always handle a hit after 2 successive losses, you will be grailed.  Recovering from 1 successive loss before another loss is seen, is a practical grail.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2017, 08:53:43 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #22 on: April 02, 2017, 09:16:12 PM »




+39 WIN
+33 WIN <=== successive late hits
+9 WIN <=== full drawdown & late hits
+4 WIN <=== full drawdown
+42 WIN
+48 WIN
+57 WIN <=== Strong 6 Probabala & aggressive betting on last 3 spins
-147 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT double drawdown; -300, ignored scrap to -30 before 2nd drawdown

Dividing into 2 sections of 74 units.

Double start, profit goal 37+ units.

+39 WIN

Double start, profit goal 35+ units.

+12 units <=== betting error
+36 WIN

Debt is now 60 units.

Double start, profit goal 30+ units.

-90 LOSS <=== full drawdown & late hits

Debt is now 150 units into 2 sections of 75 units.

Double start, profit goal 38+ units.

+54 WIN

Double start, profit goal 22+ units.

+30 WIN

Debt is now 66 units.

Double start, profit goal 33+ units.

+42 WIN

Double start, profit goal 25 units.

+36 WIN (+9865)

Normal play.

+39 WIN
+45 WIN
+54 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala; aggressive last bet
+24 WIN <=== full drawdown & latest hit on aggressive push
+45 WIN
+51 WIN <=== strong Wings event & aggressive last bet (+10123)
+54 WIN <=== strong Wings/Probabala; aggressive last 2 bets (+10177)
-1161 LOSS <=== multiple full drawdowns, ignored scrap back to -30, to -500x2 and exit



Profit balance is now +9016.  Cutting debt in half which is 581 units.  Dividing into 5 sections of 117 units.

Double start, profit goal 59+ units.

+60 WIN

Double start, profit goal 58+ units.

+75 WIN <=== strong Wings event, aggressive last bet

Debt is now 446 units, into 4 sections of 112 units.

Double start, profit goal 56+ units.

+57 WIN

Double start, profit goal 55+ units.

+69 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala, aggressive last bet

Debt is now 320 units, into 3 sections of 107 units.

Double start, profit goal 54+ units.

+60 WIN

Double start, profit goal 48+ units.

+60 WIN <=== strong Wings Event, aggressive last bet

The debt is now 200 units, into 2 sections of 100 units.

Double start, profit goal 50+ units.

+66 WIN

Double start, profit goal 34+ units.

+36 WIN

Debt is now 98 units, 2 sections of 49 units.

Double start, profit goal 49+ units.

+66 WIN <=== missed target goal by 1 unit, rebet

Double start, profit goal 33+ units.

+42 WIN <=== GOAL ACHIEVED!!!



Profit balance is +9607 with the debt now at 570 units.  Cutting again in half for 285 units.  Dividing into 3 sections of 95 units.

Double start, profit goal 48+ units.

+78 WIN <=== very strong Probabalas; aggressive last 3 bets

Double start, profit goal 18+ units.

-75 LOSS <=== direct drawdown + late hit -150

Double start, profit goal 45+ units.

+6 WIN <=== "bad" probabala [selection has repeats/recents]
+57 WIN <=== strong Wing Event, aggressive final bet

Double start, profit goal 27+ units.

+36 WIN

Debt is now 183 units, into 2 sections of 92 units.

Double start, profit goal 46+ units.

-33 LOSS <=== successive full drawdown & late hit -250

Double start unit, profit goal 34+ units.

+42 WIN
+54 WIN

Double start unit, profit goal 29+ units.

+30 WIN

Debt is now 90 units.

Double start, profit goal 45+ units.

+48 WIN

Double start, profit goal 43 units.

-57 LOSS <=== full drawdown & late hits, bad Probabala [repeats, recents]

Double start, profit goal 29+ units.

+36 WIN

Double start, profit goal 22 units.

+24 WIN

Continuing with profit goal of 41 units.

+63 WIN (+9916)

Debt is now 261 units.  Writing this off with 6-7 coups to new high at a single unit.

Normal play.

+27 WIN <=== bad probabala; [2X recent/repeats]
-60 LOSS <=== full drawdown; successive late hits, bad probabala

Double start, profit goal 30+ units.

+42 WIN

Double start, profit goal 19 units.

+36 WIN

Normal play.

+42 WIN
+42 WIN
-27 LOSS <=== successive late hits, bad probabala

Double start, profit goal 28+ units.

+45 WIN <=== Wings Event, aggressive last several bets (+10063)

Normal play.

+57 WIN <=== very strong probabala, aggressive last several bets (+10120)
+57 WIN <=== strong probabala, aggressive last 2 bets (+10177)
+18 WIN <=== successive late hits (+10195)

ALL TIME HIGH!



+48 WIN
+9 WIN <=== successive late hits
+51 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala, aggressive last bet
+57 WIN <=== strong Wings/Probabala, aggressive last 2 bets
+27 WIN <=== late hit, bad probabala
+39 WIN
+42 WIN
+45 WIN (+10513)
+48 WIN
+48 WIN
+39 WIN
+39 WIN
+45 WIN (+10732)
+42 WIN
+42 WIN (+10816) <=== on video




+39 WIN
+39 WIN
+39 WIN
+42 WIN
+48 WIN <=== strong Wings, aggressive last bet
+9 WIN <=== full drawdown & late hits
+51 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala & Wings; aggressive last 3 bets
+42 WIN
+57 WIN <=== strong 9 Proabala, aggressive last bet
+9 WIN <=== full double drawdown; -300, aggressive recovery with strong Wings/Probabala
+39 WIN (+11230)
-84 LOSS <=== double drawdown; -300 (+11146)

Double start, profit goal 42+ units.

+60 WIN

Double start, profit goal 25 units.

+30 WIN (+11236)

Normal play.

+33 WIN <=== bad Probabala
+48 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala, aggressive final bet
+15 WIN <=== double drawdown
+39 WIN
+45 WIN <=== strong Wings, aggressive final bet
+39 WIN
+45 WIN <=== strong Wings, aggressive final bet
+59 WIN <=== extremely strong 9 Probabala [23 spins]  (2X raise) & Wings, aggressive last 2 bets
+45 WIN
+42 WIN <=== strong 9 & 6 Probabala; aggressive last 2 bets
-36 LOSS <=== bad probabala

Double start, profit goal 37+ units.

+48 WIN (+11658)

Normal play.

+33 WIN <=== latest hit; strong Wings, aggressive last 2 bets, bad probabala
+9 WIN <=== full drawdown, weak probabala
+45 WIN <=== strong Wings, aggressive last bet
+39 WIN <=== strong Wings, aggressive last 2 bets
+57 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala, aggressive last bet
+42 WIN <=== strong 9 Probabala, aggressive last bet
+63 WIN <=== on video strong 9 Probabala & Wings, aggressive last 3 bets
+39 WIN
+54 WIN <=== strong Wings, aggressive final bet (+12000)
« Last Edit: April 07, 2017, 05:10:00 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2017, 02:07:24 AM »
Expectation Tables



WARNING:  When using this table, I became inspired to raise more than I normally have which is a mistake.  Statistically, it is enough to increase the incline by remaining at the current raise or only raising a single unit.




The Reverse Engineering Curse is constantly chasing us (or are we constantly chasing it!?).  Eventually, favorable odds become bad and even the worst losing streaks.

The following delimiters are designed to avoid this phenomenon:

A) Easily attainable session profit goal

Minimizing our exposure to the Reverse Engineering Curse.  This is like grabbing into a bag of 10 colored marbles and 1 of them is black.  We only grab into the bag 3 times and then stop.  Chances are we won't pick up the black marble. :)

B) Ending "bad leaning" sessions prior to hitting the full session goal

Anticipating the onset of the Reverse Engineering Curse.  "Bad leaning" sessions are coming in more frequently than expectation; this is worse than a new session!

C) Accepting smaller losses during actual bad sessions

Avoiding the worst successive drawdowns from the Reverse Engineering Curse and statistically expected counter-swings.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2017, 10:12:17 PM by Reyth »
 

moles40

  • New
  • **
  • Posts: 2
  • Thanked: 3 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2017, 03:21:01 PM »
A really awesome new way to play, thanks man will try it out a.s.a.p.
Eddy
So play first Street of each dozen then 2nd street then 3rd then 4th Street of each dozen then back to first Street ,what is the progression again i didn't see it ,you continue untill hit then start again ??
 
The following users thanked this post: Reyth

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #25 on: April 05, 2017, 04:25:25 PM »

Progression

3   3    = 24.33%
3   6    = 42.73%
6   12  = 56.66%
6   18  = 67.19%
9   27  = 75.17%
9   36  = 81.21%
12   48  = 85.78%
12   60  = 89.23%
15   75  = 91.86%

Click the link at the top of the quote, its the very first post.  After every hit you start the progression again.
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #26 on: April 07, 2017, 03:07:04 AM »



Don't think I haven't caught the glares out of the corner of my eye.

I've heard the whispering:

"He wouldn't be winning like this if he was playing for real money!"

"Sure anybody can win on a toy RNG!"

Well, I figure now is as good a time as any to start playing for real money!

I will continue tracking in this thread seamlessly (the balance total will not change) but from +12000 units on, all profits will be real money bets!

Even though I can start with 1200 units (which is a table bank), I am bringing a total bankroll of 3600 units to be safe.  This is because of the double drawdown, which you can see on the charts at around +3500 units(1) and around +3900 units(2).

If there should be the "normal" loss of a single table bank followed by a second such loss before the first one can be regained, having 3600 units total bankroll will cover that.

Most likely nothing beyond 1200 units will actually be necessary but I have learned the hard way that it is always better to be safe.

Carry on!! :D
« Last Edit: April 07, 2017, 04:30:53 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #27 on: April 07, 2017, 04:21:37 PM »
+60 WIN <=== strong Wings, aggressive last bet



INTERMISSION -- this casino only goes back 10 spins on their board, I must finish my tracker before proceeding any further as the optimal spin number for the 6 Probabala is 13+.



Ok, a very ugly & simple but functional tracker has been completed.

+45 WIN <=== Full drawdown after late hit , very strong Probabala & aggressive recovery; -150
+33 WIN <=== 3 drawdowns; -750, incredibly strong probabala & aggressive recovery
+45 WIN <=== strong Wings, aggressive last 3 bets
+39 WIN (+12162)
-237 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT full drawdown & successive late hits, bad probabala

Dividing into 3 sections of 79 units.

Double start, profit goal 40+ units.

-1122 LOSS <=== Multiple full drawdowns, ignore scrap back to  -93 & -48 after -384

Personal note: I simply played too aggressively; instead of following the rules and accepting a smaller loss (like I have done several times in past sessions) I decided to "stay in there" because of the Probabala.  I believe two factors have contributed to this which are, a change of venue & use of a tracker which captured my attention in a different way.



Total debt is now 1359, divided in half is 680 units.  Cut into 6 sections of 114 units. (+10803)

Double start, profit goal 57+ units.

+86 WIN

Double start, profit goal 29+ units.

+30 WIN

Debt is now 564, cut into 5 sections of 113 units.

Double start, profit goal 57+ units.

+81 WIN <=== Wings, aggressive final bet

Double start, profit goal 33+ units.

+42 WIN

Debt is now 441, cut into 4 sections of 111 units.

Double start, profit goal 56+ units.

+83 WIN <=== strong Wings [16], aggressive last bet

Double start, profit goal 29+ units.

+30 WIN

Debt is now 328, cut into 3 sections of 110 units.

Double start, profit goal 55+ units.

+18 WIN <=== bad probabala
+66 WIN

Double start, profir goal 26+ units.

+31 WIN

Debt is now 213 units, cut into 2 sections of 107 units.

Double start, profit goal 54+ units.

+54 WIN

Double start, profit goal 54+ units.

+66 WIN

Double start, profit goal 42+ units.

-27 LOSS <=== bad probabala

Double start, profit goal 28+ units.

-6 LOSS <=== full drawdown, bad probabala

Double start, profit goal 34+ units.

+36 WIN

Continuing with profit goal 46+ units.

-45 LOSS <=== full drawdown, bad probabala

Double start, profit goal 46+ units.

+42 WIN <=== 3 hits in a row followed by bad probabala

Continuing with 46+ units.

+9 WIN <=== double drawdown -189; Wings, aggressive last 2 bets
 +42 WIN

Debt is now 42 units.

Double start, profit goal 43+ units.

-1130 LOSS ===> multiple drawdowns with no acceptable exit point

Total debt is now 1787, cut in 3 pieces of 596 units.  Dividing into 6 sections of 100 units.

Double start, profit goal 50+ units.

-3 LOSS <=== betting errorx2 + late hit & bad probabala
-222 LOSS <=== MINI-BAILOUT; double drawdown, bad probabala

Dividing this debt in half for 111 units.

Double start, profit goal 56+ units.

+90 WIN <=== Wings, aggressive final bet

Re-dividing debt of 132.

Double start, profit goal 33+ units.

+46 WIN

Double start, profit goal 20+ units.

+42 WIN

Debt is now 44 units.

Double start, profit goal 45+ units.

+66 WIN

Debt is now 1768, continuing with 50+ units.

Went down to -531 and quit playing -- something is wrong.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2017, 06:13:56 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3932
  • Thanked: 1260 times
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #28 on: April 10, 2017, 06:17:47 PM »
Just want to update this thread after getting completely hammered.

I think this is either a bizarre coincidence or somehow the simulator I use is "soft".

I can't tell which it is and so the only solution is to ALWAYS test with money spins; this completely eliminates any possibility of incongruous results.

There are other versions of this system that I need to look into at some point.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2017, 06:19:57 PM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: Jake007

ignatus

  • Mature Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 430
  • Thanked: 268 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Nine Waves
« Reply #29 on: April 10, 2017, 06:51:37 PM »
Amazing work you've put down testing this one. You should have more credit for that, and most people are afraid because of the negative progression... too bad, but i guess you're doing it for your own sake, and to find a playable system with real money. Same as i do..

Sorry for not reading the whole thread, but what is your stoploss?
 
The following users thanked this post: Jake007, Reyth