### Author Topic: Re: To all mathematician here  (Read 3827 times)

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #30 on: December 30, 2016, 09:29:32 PM »
Mr P, maybe I don't understand the task but the most "biased" number of your 300 spins is #13 which hit 14 times. This is a stdev of a little over +2 which is well within the norms of randomness. And I don't see how you can come to any conclusion regarding bias in as few as 300 spins without some corroborating visual evidence?

Should I be thinking more in terms of sectors in my analysis?
You are free to structure your bet as you wish( sectors, numbers, mix.. ) It's just a simple exercise.
Wheel is super biased. I selected 300 numbers in best conditions, so no need filtering from your part.
Next 100 numbers , wich l post later are from same conditions as previous 300.
Task is : find best numbers wich has higher chance to win in next 100 spins.
I give you a hint. My choice would be from 6 to 12 numbers. I would pay atention not only to best numbers ( wich hit the most), but these wich hit more consistently thru out the sample.
If you can, set up Kelly bet ( specify fraction).
Task has limits.  Minimum bet- 1 pound , bankroll - 100 units.

#### Jesper

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #31 on: December 30, 2016, 10:32:10 PM »
They are not even it is 14 and there is 4, but thats I think will happen often i a short run as this. First if it is keeping up over more, it may be some evidence.

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #32 on: December 30, 2016, 11:05:00 PM »
They are not even it is 14 and there is 4, but thats I think will happen often i a short run as this. First if it is keeping up over more, it may be some evidence.
obviosly they are not evenly distrebuted. It's a bias wheel.
So wich numbers would you pick up as your bet and for wich denominations?
No need to freak out, it's an exercise,  not real play. Just make a choice and post it.

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #33 on: December 30, 2016, 11:26:41 PM »
My favorite numbers are:

2 6 13 23 33

10 7 3 36 31 24 20

I will start off betting all of these numbers SU 1 unit.

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #34 on: December 31, 2016, 12:33:24 AM »
guys, this is little hint for your consideration. On the column "edge" is shown percentage of return on investment that numbers produced during these 300 spins.
@Reyth, probably you would reconsider to remove obviosly negative numbers from your selection? There is still time.

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #35 on: December 31, 2016, 12:36:59 AM »
I put them there deliberately.

I'm not afraid of red lines with minus signs

I normally don't play "100 spins without being able to touch anything" but regardless I put my selection together with some intentional deliberation (but not too much).
« Last Edit: December 31, 2016, 12:39:43 AM by Reyth »

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2016, 01:33:11 AM »
I put them there deliberately.

I'm not afraid of red lines with minus signs

I normally don't play "100 spins without being able to touch anything" but regardless I put my selection together with some intentional deliberation (but not too much).
I have to admit,  some of whatever numbers you prefered actually surprise!!! WENT HIGHLY POSITIVE. Unfortunately,  others....
Despite the result, l like your way of thinking...

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2016, 02:37:42 AM »
Hee hee we have hijacked this comfy home.

#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2016, 04:22:36 PM »
Hee hee we have hijacked this comfy home.
I hate to admit it, but looks like you are only one with courage to select numbers to bet.
As they say, who doesn't bet , doesnt win. So , Reyth, YOU ARE THE WINNER OF THIS TASK. Congratulations.
Later lll post other numbers and superficial explanation of what l would select and why.

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#### Bayes

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2016, 05:31:06 PM »
It's not that I don't have the courage, but I was going to try a system which involves a lot of computation and I haven't had time to write the program today. So could you hold off posting the remaining numbers for a couple more days?

In the meantime, here is my simplistic selection of numbers to bet on: 2, 5, 13, 23, 28, 33

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#### MrPerfect.

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2016, 11:31:09 PM »
It's not that I don't have the courage, but I was going to try a system which involves a lot of computation and I haven't had time to write the program today. So could you hold off posting the remaining numbers for a couple more days?

In the meantime, here is my simplistic selection of numbers to bet on: 2, 5, 13, 23, 28, 33

#### Real

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #41 on: January 30, 2017, 05:27:54 PM »
Duncan,

A fool and his money are soon parted.

Like it or not, there is no possible way to hedge a negative expectation game.  It's beyond absurd.

#### Reyth

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #42 on: January 30, 2017, 06:17:20 PM »

Beware the Batman!

« Last Edit: January 30, 2017, 06:24:34 PM by Reyth »

#### Jesper

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##### Re: Gambler's Fallacy Mega thread
« Reply #43 on: January 30, 2017, 06:24:06 PM »
If we bet all we got on black after 13 reds, and win. Would it be valid?   How many system which not calls for rapid progression out of the players capacity and bankroll relay harm.

You can and many are rich without any clue why.  The Lady luck do not care how you play.

#### Real

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##### Re: ROULETTE CAN BE BEATEN! PROOF!!!
« Reply #44 on: February 10, 2017, 01:51:54 AM »
My posts have the potential to save you loads of cash, and decades of wasted time and effort away from family and friends.

Furthermore, I've explained where to look and how beat the wheel, as well as which resources to utilize.

« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 01:53:47 AM by Real »

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