Hi again kav,
Thanks for your reply! Good post.
Sorry for pointing out the absolutely identical chances between the three.
If someone held a gun to my head and told me to win (or they pulled the trigger), I would choose option 3.
The only problem with that is you can only win 1 unit while risking 2. Afterall, playing that bet simultaneously means one unit MUST lose.
You are reminding me of the way Ion Saliu thinks. Have you seen his first system? He bets on all but 5 single numbers. 11 spins a day only. He claims to expect to lose only once a week in a real life situation.
I hope finally THIS is on the right track!
The problem with this system, similarly to your option #3, is that you're risking many units just for a modest return. Chances are you will win most of the time, but when you have a loss, which could very well happen in the first couple of spins, you have created a hole which will be very hard to climb out of.
In short: tell me that today there will come 150 REDS, 170 BLACKS and 12 GREENS. THE ODDS WILL BE AGAINST ME (MORE THAN JUST THE HOUSE EDGE) but I can bet on RED with the proper bet selection (entry-exit points)
I like your example there, however I don't believe in using proper bet selection as you might have noticed (check out many of my proven points in my thread). But I DO fully agree with the money management part!
Negative progression is the only thing that will raise your chances to overcome a losing streak. There's no point trying to avoid a losing streak using 'proper bet selection', as I think there is 0.0% advantage doing that. It is just a psychological advantage.
I dare anyone to show me a system that could beat roulette if there was an edge in favor of the player!!!! Say you don't loose your money when 0 comes, and you gain a chip bonus for every 100 spins played. Now show me a system that will win with this favorable conditions!!! Hey! Not a system that will win after 5 millions spins, but a system that I could play say for 10 days, 100 spins per day and be sure that in total I will come ahead after the last day. This means a system that will generate profit in real life. If you give me such a system I most certainly could turn it to successful system taking into account the house edge.
You're saying you can rely on testing over a small sample can 'most certainly' make you successful.
Let's use the 9-step Martingale as an example:
The 9-step Martingale will bet up to 256 units on the 9th spin, then quit at that.
You are playing 1000 spins (10 days, 100 per day).
Sometimes, 1000 spins you will NOT lose your money AT ALL. Therefore you are a WINNER.
Other samples of 1000 spins (new numbers) you may lose 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256 = 511 units SEVERAL times.
Now that makes you a BIG LOSER.
That's how Standard Deviation works.
It is the luck of the 1000 spin draw.
Kav, I understand your point, because I believe the basis of my Cluster System should be more profitable than not over 1000 spins.
And I only tested it for about 2,500 spins.
If only you encounter the luck of the draw.